** WTPZ23 KNHC 272028 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032005 2100Z MON JUN 27 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 100.9W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 100.9W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.5W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.8N 102.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.3N 104.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.8N 106.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.3N 108.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 18.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 18.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 100.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 272029 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2005 ACAPULCO RADAR IMAGES SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN FACT...THE SPIRAL BANDING IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS THIS MORNING. GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 3.0 AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. CALVIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFDL AND SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVERSING COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERING A MORE STABLE AIR MASS SO WEAKENING SHOULD HAVE COMMENCED BY THAT TIME. THERE IS A LOT OF SCATTER IN THE CENTER FIXES BUT THE STORM HAS APPARENTLY TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/9. THE TRACK FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND PROVIDING AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. BECAUSE OF THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE... THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHALLOW-LAYER FLOW. THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION REDUCES THE THREAT TO THE COAST...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH CAN PROBABLY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 15.4N 100.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 15.8N 102.2W 50 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 16.3N 104.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 16.8N 106.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 29/1800Z 17.3N 108.6W 60 KT 72HR VT 30/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 01/1800Z 18.0N 115.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 02/1800Z 18.0N 117.5W 20 KT $$ ** WTPZ33 KNHC 272029 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2005 ...CALVIN CONTINUES MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING COASTAL MEXICO NEAR ACAPULCO... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 100.9 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. CALVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...15.4 N...100.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM PDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 272200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CALVIN) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z8 --- NEAR 15.2N8 100.5W6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N8 100.5W6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z6 --- 15.8N4 102.2W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z9 --- 16.3N0 104.2W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z7 --- 16.8N5 106.5W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z0 --- 17.3N1 108.6W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z2 --- 18.0N9 112.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 18.0N9 115.0W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 18.0N9 117.5W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 272200Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.4N0 100.9W0. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280400Z4, 281000Z1, 281600Z7 AND 282200Z4.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 272200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CALVIN) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z8 --- NEAR 15.2N8 100.5W6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N8 100.5W6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z6 --- 15.8N4 102.2W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z9 --- 16.3N0 104.2W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 272200 RRB *** 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z7 --- 16.8N5 106.5W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z0 --- 17.3N1 108.6W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z2 --- 18.0N9 112.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER ** WTPN31 PHNC 272200 RRC *** RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 18.0N9 115.0W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 18.0N9 117.5W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 272200Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.4N0 100.9W0. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280400Z4, 281000Z1, 281600Z7 AND 282200Z4.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 272200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CALVIN) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z8 --- NEAR 15.2N8 100.5W6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N8 100.5W6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z6 --- 15.8N4 102.2W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z9 --- 16.3N0 104.2W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z7 --- 16.8N5 106.5W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z0 --- 17.3N1 108.6W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z2 --- 18.0N9 112.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 18.0N9 115.0W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 18.0N9 117.5W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 272200Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.4N0 100.9W0. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280400Z4, 281000Z1, 281600Z7 AND 282200Z4.// ** WTPZ33 KNHC 272338 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CALVIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2005 ...CALVIN BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 101.2 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. CALVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. CALVIN HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...70 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...15.6 N...101.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM PDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$