** WTIN20 DEMS 270700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 27-06-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND ADJOINING WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????/ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 270831 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032005 0900Z MON JUN 27 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 98.4W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 98.4W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 98.1W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.0N 99.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.6N 101.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.3N 103.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.9N 105.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.5N 109.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 17.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 17.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 98.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 270834 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2005 THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND EXTRAPOLATION OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITIONS BETWEEN 00Z AND 05Z. A 27/0449Z AMSU OVERPASS INDICATED THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS AND THE WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KT AND THE DECISION TO NAME THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...PLUS A UW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE AODT ESTIMATE OF T2.6/36 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 330/04. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE REASONING OF THE TWO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK DISCUSSIONS. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS REASONABLY CONSISTENT ON GRADUALLY BUILDING THE MEXICAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO TURN CALVIN NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND THEN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UP TO ABOUT 10 KT. CALVIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR-26C SSTS BY 72 HOURS AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN...AND THEN BE FORCED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING CALVIN IS STRIKINGLY SIMILAR TO THAT OF TS BEATRIZ JUST A FEW DAYS AGO. ANOTHER STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST WENT OFF NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BETWEEN 03Z-06Z...BUT HAS SINCE WEAKENED. OTHER BURSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH EACH ONE SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...25 TO 30 KT 300-200 MB EASTERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW LAYER AND PRODUCE AT LEAST 15-20 KT OF SHEAR. THE GFDL MODEL IS MUCH LESS ROBUST THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOW ONLY BRINGS CALVIN UP TO 56 KT IN 24 HOURS. SINCE THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY. HEAVY RAINS FROM CALVIN ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. SINCE THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS JUST OFFSHORE...THE EXISTING WATCH SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 14.6N 98.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 15.0N 99.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 15.6N 101.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 16.3N 103.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 16.9N 105.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 30/0600Z 17.5N 109.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 01/0600Z 17.5N 111.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 02/0600Z 17.5N 114.5W 30 KT $$ ** WTPZ33 KNHC 270842 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2005 ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR ACAPULCO... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES... 190 KM...SOUTH OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO AND ABOUT 190 MILES... 300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. CALVIN HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY...BUT GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...ON A COURSE ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE...IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM...MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. REPEATING THE 2 AM PDT POSITION...14.6 N... 98.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 271000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 03E (CALVIN) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z5 --- NEAR 14.3N8 98.1W8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N8 98.1W8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z8 --- 15.0N6 99.5W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z6 --- 15.6N2 101.0W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z9 --- 16.3N0 103.1W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z7 --- 16.9N6 105.4W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z9 --- 17.5N3 109.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z7 --- 17.5N3 111.5W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 17.5N3 114.5W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 271000Z0 POSITION NEAR 14.5N0 98.6W3. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z5 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271600Z6, 272200Z3, 280400Z4 AND 281000Z1.// ** WTPZ33 KNHC 271154 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CALVIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2005 ...CALVIN MOVING SLOWLY...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE AFFECTING THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR ACAPULCO... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES... 250 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. CALVIN HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY...BUT GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE STORM SHOULD MOVE ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM...MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...14.7 N... 98.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM PDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$