** WTSR20 WSSS 261800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ23 KNHC 270234 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032005 0300Z MON JUN 27 2005 AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 98.0W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 98.0W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 97.9W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.8N 98.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.6N 100.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.3N 102.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.7N 105.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 17.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 17.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 98.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ33 KNHC 270236 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST... AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.0 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES...255 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY THIS EVENING...BUT IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH ... 6 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...ON A COURSE ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE...IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...14.1 N... 98.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM PDT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 270244 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2005 THE POSITION OF THE DEPRESSION IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN SSMI PASS AT 0045Z AND THE ACAPULCO RADAR SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. LOCATION UNCERTAINTY CLOUDS THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH WERE 2.5 FROM AFWA AND TAFB AND 2.0 FROM SAB. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY... I PREFER TO HOLD THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 30 KT. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN. IN FACT...THE GFDL MAKES THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL IS LESS AGGRESSIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THIS GUIDANCE BUT SHOULD THE EATERLY SHEAR NOT DIMINISH THIS FORECAST COULD BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. BY 72 HOURS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE REACHING COLDER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 340/3. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS TROUGH MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING CURRENT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN...AND THAT WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE SHOULD BE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEND THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST. UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IS HOW CLOSE TO THE CLOSE THE CENTER WILL GET. GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND CONSEQUENTLY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME. RAINS FROM THE DEPRESSION ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 14.1N 98.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 14.8N 98.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 15.6N 100.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 28/1200Z 16.3N 102.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 29/0000Z 16.7N 105.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 30/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 01/0000Z 17.0N 112.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 02/0000Z 17.0N 114.5W 30 KT $$ ** WTPZ43 KNHC 270252 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2005 CORRECTED EATERLY TO EASTERLY IN 1ST PARAGRAPH...AND CLOSE TO COAST IN 2ND PARAGRAPH. THE POSITION OF THE DEPRESSION IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN SSMI PASS AT 0045Z AND THE ACAPULCO RADAR SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. LOCATION UNCERTAINTY CLOUDS THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH WERE 2.5 FROM AFWA AND TAFB AND 2.0 FROM SAB. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY... I PREFER TO HOLD THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 30 KT. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN. IN FACT...THE GFDL MAKES THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL IS LESS AGGRESSIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THIS GUIDANCE BUT SHOULD THE EASTERLY SHEAR NOT DIMINISH THIS FORECAST COULD BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. BY 72 HOURS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE REACHING COLDER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 340/3. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS TROUGH MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING CURRENT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN...AND THAT WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE SHOULD BE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEND THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST. UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE CENTER WILL GET. GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND CONSEQUENTLY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME. RAINS FROM THE DEPRESSION ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 14.1N 98.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 14.8N 98.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 15.6N 100.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 28/1200Z 16.3N 102.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 29/0000Z 16.7N 105.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 30/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 01/0000Z 17.0N 112.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 02/0000Z 17.0N 114.5W 30 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 270400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z9 --- NEAR 13.9N3 97.9W5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N3 97.9W5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 14.8N3 98.7W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 15.6N2 100.5W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 16.3N0 102.7W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 16.7N4 105.0W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 17.0N8 109.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 17.0N8 112.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 17.0N8 114.5W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 270400Z3 POSITION NEAR 14.2N7 98.2W9. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271000Z0, 271600Z6, 272200Z3 AND 280400Z4.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 270400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z9 --- NEAR 13.9N3 97.9W5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N3 97.9W5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 14.8N3 98.7W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 15.6N2 100.5W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 16.3N0 102.7W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 270400 RRB *** 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 16.7N4 105.0W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 17.0N8 109.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- ** WTPN31 PHNC 270400 RRC *** LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 17.0N8 112.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 17.0N8 114.5W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 270400Z3 POSITION NEAR 14.2N7 98.2W9. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271000Z0, 271600Z6, 272200Z3 AND 280400Z4.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 270400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z9 --- NEAR 13.9N3 97.9W5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N3 97.9W5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 14.8N3 98.7W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 15.6N2 100.5W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 16.3N0 102.7W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 16.7N4 105.0W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 17.0N8 109.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 17.0N8 112.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 17.0N8 114.5W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 270400Z3 POSITION NEAR 14.2N7 98.2W9. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271000Z0, 271600Z6, 272200Z3 AND 280400Z4.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 270530 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.06.2005 TROPICAL STORM THREE-E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 98.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.06.2005 13.8N 98.4W WEAK 12UTC 27.06.2005 14.5N 99.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 28.06.2005 15.5N 100.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.06.2005 16.2N 102.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.06.2005 17.1N 105.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 29.06.2005 17.7N 107.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.06.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 9.0N 89.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.06.2005 9.0N 89.9W WEAK 12UTC 29.06.2005 8.9N 91.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.06.2005 9.6N 92.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.06.2005 11.1N 93.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.07.2005 12.2N 94.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.07.2005 13.5N 95.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.07.2005 14.7N 96.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 270530 ** WTPZ33 KNHC 270542 *** TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM CALVIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DEVELOPS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE MEXICAN COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO AND ABOUT 205 MILES...325 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. CALVIN HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY...BUT GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...ON A COURSE ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE...IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. REPEATING THE 11 PM PDT POSITION...14.3 N... 98.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM PDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$