** WTPZ43 KNHC 262030 *** TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2005 AFTER A SLOW AND UNSTEADY GENESIS PERIOD...THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME WELL ENOUGH ORGANIZED TO BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH BURSTS OF STRONG CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THE ESTIMATES AND THE SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT. THERE IS A SHIP REPORT OF 34 KT NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED WIND DIRECTION...PRESSURE...AND WAVE HEIGHT APPEAR SUSPECT...AND THE OVERALL RELIABILITY OF THE REPORT IS UNCERTAIN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 310/5. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE SOUTHERN END OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN HAS CREATED A WEAK STEERING PATTERN FOR THE SYSTEM...WHICH HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. WHILE THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL TRACK...THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED...WITH THE GFS MOVING THE SYSTEM MUCH FASTER THAN THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE ON THE SPEED BETWEEN THESE MODELS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN UNTIL IT HITS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE STRONGER GFDL AND THE WEAKER SHIPS MODELS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM IN CASE IT COMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD TROPICAL STORM WINDS ONSHORE. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 13.9N 98.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 14.4N 99.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/1800Z 15.4N 101.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 28/0600Z 16.1N 103.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 28/1800Z 16.6N 105.9W 65 KT 72HR VT 29/1800Z 17.0N 110.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 30/1800Z 17.5N 113.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 01/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPZ23 KNHC 262030 *** TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032005 2100Z SUN JUN 26 2005 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 98.3W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 98.3W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 98.0W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.4N 99.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.4N 101.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.1N 103.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.6N 105.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 17.5N 113.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 98.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 262200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260151ZJUN2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z7 --- NEAR 13.7N1 98.0W7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N1 98.0W7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z5 --- 14.4N9 99.1W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z8 --- 15.4N0 101.3W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z6 --- 16.1N8 103.5W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z9 --- 16.6N3 105.9W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z0 --- 17.0N8 110.0W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z2 --- 17.5N3 113.0W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 17.5N3 116.0W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 262200Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.9N3 98.4W1. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 260151ZJUN2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 260200 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270400Z3, 271000Z0, 271600Z6 AND 272200Z3.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 262200 RRB *** 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z9 --- 16.6N3 105.9W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z0 --- 17.0N8 110.0W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY ** WTPN31 PHNC 262200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260151ZJUN2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z7 --- NEAR 13.7N1 98.0W7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N1 98.0W7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z5 --- 14.4N9 99.1W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z8 --- 15.4N0 101.3W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z6 --- 16.1N8 103.5W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 262200 RRC *** NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z2 --- 17.5N3 113.0W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 17.5N3 116.0W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 262200Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.9N3 98.4W1. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 260151ZJUN2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 260200 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270400Z3, 271000Z0, 271600Z6 AND 272200Z3.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 262200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260151ZJUN2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z7 --- NEAR 13.7N1 98.0W7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N1 98.0W7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z5 --- 14.4N9 99.1W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z8 --- 15.4N0 101.3W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z6 --- 16.1N8 103.5W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z9 --- 16.6N3 105.9W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z0 --- 17.0N8 110.0W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z2 --- 17.5N3 113.0W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 17.5N3 116.0W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: 262200Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.9N3 98.4W1. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 260151ZJUN2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 260200 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270400Z3, 271000Z0, 271600Z6 AND 272200Z3.//