** WTSR20 WSSS 241800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPN21 PHNC 250200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFORCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0N4 95.8W2 TO 13.9N3 99.4W2 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 242345Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N4 95.8W2. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.0N 95.8W, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO ANGEL, MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BANDING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 260200Z0.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 250519 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.06.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 12.1N 97.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.06.2005 12.1N 97.0W WEAK 12UTC 26.06.2005 12.9N 98.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.06.2005 13.6N 98.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.06.2005 13.5N 99.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.06.2005 13.4N 100.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 28.06.2005 13.8N 101.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 29.06.2005 14.6N 103.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.06.2005 15.6N 104.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.06.2005 16.8N 106.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.06.2005 17.3N 109.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 01.07.2005 18.2N 111.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 9.7N 82.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.06.2005 9.7N 82.2W WEAK 00UTC 28.06.2005 10.4N 81.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.06.2005 9.8N 82.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.06.2005 10.3N 85.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.06.2005 8.7N 87.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.06.2005 9.2N 88.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.06.2005 9.9N 90.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.07.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 250519