** WTIN20 DEMS 170650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 24-06-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL ,ANDAMAN SEA AND NORTH EAST ARABIAN SEA. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28.0 DEG.NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPZ22 KNHC 240829 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022005 0900Z FRI JUN 24 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 112.5W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 112.5W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 112.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.7N 113.4W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.9N 114.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.9N 115.1W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.7N 116.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.5N 116.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 112.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 240829 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2005 HIGH-RESOLUTION DATA FROM A 0143Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE CIRCULATION WERE ABOUT 25 KT. THIS VALUE WILL BE USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY...BUT THE CYCLONE MAY BE EVEN WEAKER THAN THAT BY NOW. A SPORADIC PUFF OR TWO OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY STILL OCCUR WITHIN THE SYSTEM...BUT DISSIPATION TO A REMNANT LOW IS CALLED FOR IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/9...MAINLY BASED ON CONTINUITY SINCE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND ON INFRARED IMAGERY. LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO A GRADUAL SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED IS PREDICTED. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BEATRIZ'S REMNANT LOW WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE BEFORE BEING PULLED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A TRAILING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 17.5N 112.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 17.7N 113.4W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 25/0600Z 17.9N 114.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 25/1800Z 17.9N 115.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 26/0600Z 17.7N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 27/0600Z 17.5N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 241000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BEATRIZ) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z2 --- NEAR 17.4N2 112.2W6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N3 112.5W9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 17.7N5 113.4W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 17.9N7 114.3W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z6 --- 17.9N7 115.1W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z4 --- 17.7N5 116.0W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z5 --- 17.5N3 116.5W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.5N3 112.5W9. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241600Z3, 242200Z0, 250400Z1 AND 251000Z8.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 241000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BEATRIZ) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z2 --- NEAR 17.4N2 112.2W6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N3 112.5W9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 17.7N5 113.4W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 17.9N7 114.3W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z6 --- 17.9N7 115.1W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z4 --- 17.7N5 116.0W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z5 --- 17.5N3 116.5W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 240900Z5 POSITION NEAR 17.5N3 112.5W9.