** WTSR20 WSSS 231800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ22 KNHC 240227 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022005 0300Z FRI JUN 24 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 111.7W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 111.7W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.7N 114.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.7N 115.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.6N 115.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.5N 116.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 111.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 240227 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2005 DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND WHAT LITTLE THERE IS REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT BEATRIZ HAS FALLEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WITH THE CYCLONE CONTINUING TO MOVE OVER SUB 26C SSTS...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9. THIS TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MOTION...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CYCLONE DECOUPLING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CURRENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ ULTIMATELY PULLED SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT ANTICIPATES THAT BEATRIZ WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE INTERACTING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TRAILING DISTURBANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 17.2N 111.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 25/0000Z 17.7N 114.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 25/1200Z 17.7N 115.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 26/0000Z 17.6N 115.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 27/0000Z 17.5N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 240400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BEATRIZ) WARNING NR 010 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z6 --- NEAR 17.2N0 111.7W0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N0 111.7W0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z9 --- 17.5N3 113.0W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z7 --- 17.7N5 114.2W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z0 --- 17.7N5 115.0W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z8 --- 17.6N4 115.7W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 17.5N3 116.5W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 240300Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.2N0 111.7W0. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241000Z7, 241600Z3, 242200Z0 AND 250400Z1.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 240400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E (BEATRIZ) WARNING NR 010 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 02E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z6 --- NEAR 17.2N0 111.7W0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N0 111.7W0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z9 --- 17.5N3 113.0W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z7 --- 17.7N5 114.2W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z0 --- 17.7N5 115.0W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z8 --- 17.6N4 115.7W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 17.5N3 116.5W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER ** WTNT80 EGRR 240515 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.06.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 111.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.06.2005 17.2N 111.4W MODERATE 12UTC 24.06.2005 17.2N 112.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.06.2005 17.7N 113.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 25.06.2005 18.2N 113.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.06.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 12.7N 97.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.06.2005 12.7N 97.6W WEAK 12UTC 26.06.2005 12.8N 98.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.06.2005 13.2N 98.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.06.2005 13.4N 99.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 28.06.2005 13.6N 99.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 28.06.2005 13.9N 101.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.06.2005 14.7N 102.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.06.2005 15.0N 104.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.06.2005 15.7N 107.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 240515