** WTPZ42 KNHC 232034 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2005 AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF BEATRIZ HAS BECOME EXPOSED EAST OF AN AREA OF WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT...A 1316Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED AT BEST 45 KT WINDS... POSSIBLY RAIN-CONTAMINATED...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON THE DECAY IN THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT. THE STORM IS MOVING INTO COOLER WATER AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REVISED TO HAVING BEATRIZ BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 72 HR...AND IT MAY WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/11. BEATRIZ SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS IT WEAKENS AND THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOMES DOMINANT. MOST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TURNS THE REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ SOUTHWARD AFTER 48 HR IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER CYCLONE FORMING TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING GENESIS AND IN FORECASTING HOW CLOSE THE TWO SYSTEMS MAY BE...THE TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A MORE GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER 48 HR. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 17.2N 111.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 17.6N 112.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 17.9N 114.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 18.0N 115.2W 25 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 18.0N 116.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 26/1800Z 17.5N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 27/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 28/1800Z 17.0N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 232034 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022005 2100Z THU JUN 23 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 111.0W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 40SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 50SE 50SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 111.0W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.6N 112.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.9N 114.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.0N 115.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N 116.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.5N 117.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 17.0N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 232200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BEATRIZ) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z4 --- NEAR 17.2N0 111.0W3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N0 111.0W3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 17.6N4 112.5W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 17.9N7 114.1W7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 18.0N9 115.2W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z6 --- 18.0N9 116.0W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z7 --- 17.5N3 117.0W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z8 --- 17.5N3 118.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z9 --- 17.0N8 119.0W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT --- REMARKS: 232100Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.2N0 111.0W3. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240400Z0, 241000Z7, 241600Z3 AND 242200Z0.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 232200 RRB *** VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z8 --- 17.5N3 118.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z9 --- 17.0N8 119.0W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT --- REMARKS: 232100Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.2N0 111.0W3. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240400Z0, 241000Z7, 241600Z3 AND 242200Z0.//