** WTSR20 WSSS 230600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ22 KNHC 231439 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022005 1500Z THU JUN 23 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 109.9W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......125NE 40SE 40SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 40SE 30SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 109.9W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 109.4W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.4N 111.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.9N 113.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.2N 114.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 20SE 20SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.1N 115.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 116.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 18.0N 117.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 18.0N 118.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 109.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 231439 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2005 BEATRIZ APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED PEAK INTENSITY THIS MORNING NEAR 45 KT. A TRMM OVERPASS NEAR 07Z DEPICTS A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE ESTIMATED CENTER BENEATH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION... WHICH HAS DECREASED SINCE 09Z. WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE CENTER RELATIVE TO THE DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED 295/12 AND SHOULD CROSS THE 26C SEA SURFACE ISOTHERM LATER TODAY...AS IT ENTERS AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AND DRY ENVIRONMENT. THIS MOTION IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. TIME HAS JUST ABOUT RUN OUT FOR ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AND GIVEN THE RECENT DECREASE IN CONVECTION A WEAKENING TREND COULD BE IMMINENT. SHIPS GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHILE THE GFDL DOES SO ONLY FOR ONLY 12 MORE HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS. BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS...BEATRIZ SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BREAKS DOWN...AND THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW SHOULD THEN DRIFT WESTWARD ALONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. FORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 16.9N 109.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 17.4N 111.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 17.9N 113.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 18.2N 114.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 18.1N 115.6W 30 KT 72HR VT 26/1200Z 18.0N 116.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 27/1200Z 18.0N 117.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 28/1200Z 18.0N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 231600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BEATRIZ) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z8 --- NEAR 16.7N4 109.4W4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N4 109.4W4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z6 --- 17.4N2 111.6W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z9 --- 17.9N7 113.5W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z7 --- 18.2N1 114.8W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z0 --- 18.1N0 115.6W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z1 --- 18.0N9 116.5W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 18.0N9 117.5W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 18.0N9 118.5W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 231500Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.9N6 109.9W9. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232200Z9, 240400Z0, 241000Z7 AND 241600Z3.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 231600 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BEATRIZ) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z8 --- NEAR 16.7N4 109.4W4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N4 109.4W4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z6 --- 17.4N2 111.6W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z9 --- 17.9N7 113.5W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z7 --- 18.2N1 114.8W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT ** WTPN31 PHNC 231600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BEATRIZ) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z8 --- NEAR 16.7N4 109.4W4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N4 109.4W4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z6 --- 17.4N2 111.6W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z9 --- 17.9N7 113.5W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z7 --- 18.2N1 114.8W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z0 --- 18.1N0 115.6W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z1 --- 18.0N9 116.5W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 18.0N9 117.5W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 18.0N9 118.5W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 231500Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.9N6 109.9W9. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232200Z9, 240400Z0, 241000Z7 AND 241600Z3.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 231722 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.06.2005 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 109.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.06.2005 16.4N 109.4W MODERATE 00UTC 24.06.2005 17.7N 111.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.06.2005 18.0N 112.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.06.2005 18.7N 114.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.06.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 11.7N 97.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.06.2005 11.7N 97.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.06.2005 11.8N 97.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.06.2005 12.6N 98.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.06.2005 12.6N 100.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.06.2005 12.6N 101.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.06.2005 12.6N 103.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.06.2005 13.5N 105.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 231722