** WTIN20 DEMS 230817 *** SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK -------------------------------- DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 23-06-2005 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC AAA LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL,NORTH ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28 DEG.NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ENDS= ** WTPZ22 KNHC 230826 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022005 0900Z THU JUN 23 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 109.3W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......125NE 40SE 40SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 40SE 30SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 109.3W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.7W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.8N 111.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...125NE 50SE 50SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.4N 113.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...125NE 50SE 50SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.8N 114.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...125NE 50SE 50SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.9N 115.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.0N 116.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 18.0N 118.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 109.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 230826 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2005 ALTHOUGH DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE UP TO 3.5...CORRESPONDING TO AN INTENSITY OF 55 KT...AT 06Z...THE COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION SUBSEQUENTLY DIMINISHED. MOREOVER...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS RAGGED-LOOKING WITH NO DISCERNABLE BANDING. CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS VISIBLE FIXES SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST. ASSUMING THIS...AND USING THE SHEAR PATTERN WITH THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...ONE OBTAINS A T-NUMBER CLOSER TO 3.0. CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE...AND IS ACKNOWLEDGED IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE CLOSING SOON AS THE STORM HEADS FOR COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THAT SHOWN BY THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12...BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA BREAKS DOWN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED TO A DRIFT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TURN SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD IN 4-5 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO ITS EAST. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED TO A WEAK REMNANT LOW THAT WILL BE STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 16.3N 109.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 16.8N 111.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 17.4N 113.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 24/1800Z 17.8N 114.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 25/0600Z 17.9N 115.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 26/0600Z 18.0N 116.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 27/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 28/0600Z 18.0N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 231000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BEATRIZ) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z1 --- NEAR 16.1N8 108.7W6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N0 109.3W3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 16.8N5 111.0W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 17.4N2 113.0W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 17.8N6 114.5W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z3 --- 17.9N7 115.3W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z4 --- 18.0N9 116.0W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z5 --- 18.0N9 117.0W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z6 --- 18.0N9 118.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230900Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.3N0 109.3W3. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231600Z2, 232200Z9, 240400Z0 AND 241000Z7.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 231000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BEATRIZ) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z1 --- NEAR 16.1N8 108.7W6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N0 109.3W3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 16.8N5 111.0W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 17.4N2 113.0W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 231000 RRC *** --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z6 --- 18.0N9 118.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230900Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.3N0 109.3W3. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231600Z2, 232200Z9, 240400Z0 AND 241000Z7.//