** WTSR20 WSSS 221800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ22 KNHC 230208 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022005 0300Z THU JUN 23 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.8W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......125NE 40SE 30SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 40SE 30SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 107.8W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.3N 109.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 50SE 50SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.9N 111.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 60SE 60SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.3N 113.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 60SE 60SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.5N 114.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.7N 116.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 17.7N 117.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 17.7N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 230210 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2005 A HEALTHY BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER OR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS PRODUCING A NICE ROUND CDO-LIKE FEATURE. ROTATION OF THE CLOUD TOPS WOULD PLACE THE CENTER A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...BUT A 25 KT NORTHWEST WIND FROM SHIP 9VVY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CLOUD MASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS NORTH OF 15.5N...BUT STILL SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 22/2121Z ALSO IMPLIES A POSITION A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND A UW-CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 997.7 MB AT 2120Z. AFWA CAME IN WITH A 65 KT ESTIMATE...AND BEATRIZ COULD BE CLOSER TO 50 OR EVEN 55 KT NOW...BUT I WOULD PREFER TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE CDO-LIKE FEATURE PERSISTS AND IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONINGS. BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. AFTER PASSING OVER MUCH COOLER SSTS BY 36 HOURS...BEATRIZ IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A RAPID WEAKENING TREND AND THEN BE STEERED SLOWLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY SHALLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH...OR LEFT...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE LAST COUPLE OF IMAGES SINCE 00Z SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ MAY BE MIGRATING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE CDO-LIKE FEATURE. IF THIS TREND PERSISTS...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BEATRIZ COULD PEAK IN ABOUT 18 HOURS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES SUB-26C SSTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS BEATRIZ TO 52 KT IN 18 HOURS THROUGH 36 HOURS...AFTER WHICH STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING OCCURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 15.8N 107.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 16.3N 109.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 16.9N 111.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 17.3N 113.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 17.5N 114.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 17.7N 116.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 27/0000Z 17.7N 117.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 28/0000Z 17.7N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 230400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BEATRIZ) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z5 --- NEAR 15.8N4 107.8W6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N4 107.8W6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z8 --- 16.3N0 109.3W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z6 --- 16.9N6 111.3W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z9 --- 17.3N1 113.0W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z7 --- 17.5N3 114.3W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z8 --- 17.7N5 116.0W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 17.7N5 117.5W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 17.7N5 119.0W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230400Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.0N7 108.3W2. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231000Z6, 231600Z2, 232200Z9 AND 240400Z0.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 230400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BEATRIZ) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z5 --- NEAR 15.8N4 107.8W6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N4 107.8W6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z8 --- 16.3N0 109.3W3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z6 --- 16.9N6 111.3W6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 230400 RRC *** NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 17.7N5 117.5W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 17.7N5 119.0W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230400Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.0N7 108.3W2. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231000Z6, 231600Z2, 232200Z9 AND 240400Z0.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 230459 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.06.2005 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 106.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.06.2005 15.5N 106.9W MODERATE 12UTC 23.06.2005 16.5N 109.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.06.2005 17.6N 110.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.06.2005 18.0N 112.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.06.2005 18.2N 114.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.06.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 230459