** WTPZ22 KNHC 222049 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022005 2100Z WED JUN 22 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 106.4W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......125NE 30SE 30SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 106.4W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 105.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.2N 108.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 50SE 50SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.0N 110.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 60SE 60SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.4N 112.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 60SE 60SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.7N 113.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.0N 117.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 106.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 222049 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2005 THE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS PERSISTED DURING THE DAY...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 2.5. ANOTHER REPORT FROM SHIP 9VVN NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER...THIS TIME IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND AGAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...INDICATED 30 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT WINDS ARE STRONGER BENEATH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. TRMM AND SSMI IMAGERY NEAR 16Z SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/11. THE TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS. ON THIS REVISED TRACK...BEATRIZ SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS A BIT SOONER AND WILL PROBABLY REACH PEAK INTENSITY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE SPEED OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE GFDL...SO THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM GFDL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY. SINCE SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEVELOP A NEW SYSTEM FARTHER EAST AND EVENTUALLY BRING A WEAKENING BEATRIZ TO THE SOUTH...IT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW WILL TRAVEL. FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 15.5N 106.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 16.2N 108.1W 50 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 17.0N 110.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 17.4N 112.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 17.7N 113.7W 40 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 18.0N 115.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 18.0N 117.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 222200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BEATRIZ) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z3 --- NEAR 15.5N1 106.4W1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N1 106.4W1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 16.2N9 108.1W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 17.0N8 110.2W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 17.4N2 112.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 17.7N5 113.7W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z6 --- 18.0N9 115.5W2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z7 --- 18.0N9 117.0W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z8 --- 18.0N9 118.5W5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230400Z9, 231000Z6, 231600Z2 AND 232200Z9.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 222200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BEATRIZ) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z3 --- NEAR 15.5N1 106.4W1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N1 106.4W1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 16.2N9 108.1W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 17.0N8 110.2W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z2 --- 17.4N2 112.0W4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT