** WTSR20 WSSS 220600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ22 KNHC 221451 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022005 1500Z WED JUN 22 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 105.6W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......125NE 30SE 30SW 125NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 105.6W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.1W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.2N 107.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...125NE 50SE 50SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.8N 109.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...125NE 50SE 50SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.3N 111.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 60SE 60SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.7N 112.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...125NE 60SE 60SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 17.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 17.0N 120.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 105.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 221457 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED JUN 22 2005 IN CONTRAST TO THE TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION THAT WERE PRESENT OVERNIGHT...A SINGLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND NOW SEEMS TO BE CONSOLIDATING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A CONSENSUS 2.5. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. SHIP 9VVN AT 12Z REPORTED 30 KT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION AND OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...SO IT IS CONCEIVABLE THE WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 35 KT BENEATH THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WE WILL WAIT TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY UNTIL WE HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER LOCATION. INITIAL MOTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND ESTIMATED AT 285/11...WHICH IS REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IN GOES IMAGERY. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE PACE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT THE FORECAST OTHERWISE REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. BEATRIZ SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...ACCOMPANIED BY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...UNTIL REACHING AN AREA OF WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS AND COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. WEAKENING AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 14.8N 105.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 15.2N 107.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 15.8N 109.4W 50 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 16.3N 111.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 16.7N 112.9W 55 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 17.0N 115.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 17.0N 118.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 17.0N 120.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 221600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BEATRIZ) WARNING NR 004 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 14.6N 105.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 105.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 15.2N 107.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 15.8N 109.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 16.3N 111.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 16.7N 112.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 17.0N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 17.0N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 17.0N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 221600Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 105.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222200Z8, 230400Z9, 231000Z6 AND 231600Z2.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 221600 RRC *** 261200Z --- 17.0N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 17.0N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 221600Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 105.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222200Z8, 230400Z9, 231000Z6 AND 231600Z2.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 221600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BEATRIZ) WARNING NR 004 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 14.6N 105.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 105.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 15.2N 107.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 15.8N 109.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 16.3N 111.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 16.7N 112.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 17.0N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 17.0N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 17.0N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 221600Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 105.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222200Z8, 230400Z9, 231000Z6 AND 231600Z2.// ** WTIN20 DEMS 221620 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 22-06-2005 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC AAA THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF SAURASHTRA COAST MOVED WESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY (JUNE 22,2005) ABOUT 250 KM WEST OF PORBANDAR. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AAA INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH ARABIAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION AAA ENDS= ** WTPN31 PHNC 221600 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 02E (BEATRIZ) WARNING NR 004A CORRECTED UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 14.6N 105.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N1 105.1W7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 15.2N 107.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 15.8N 109.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 16.3N 111.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 16.7N 112.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 17.0N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 17.0N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 17.0N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 221600Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 105.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222200Z8, 230400Z9, 231000Z6 AND 231600Z2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED TAU 24 34KT WIND RADII.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 221656 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 22.06.2005 TROPICAL STORM TWO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 104.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.06.2005 14.6N 104.9W MODERATE 00UTC 23.06.2005 15.3N 107.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.06.2005 16.2N 109.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.06.2005 17.1N 112.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.06.2005 17.2N 114.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.06.2005 17.3N 115.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.06.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 221656