** WTIN20 DEMS 220650 COR *** SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 22 JUNE 2005 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC AAA YESTERDAY'S DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF SAURASHTRA COAST MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED NEAR LAT 22.0 DEG. N AND LONG 68.0 DEG E AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY (JUNE 22,2005 ) ABOUT 150 KM WEST OF PORBANDAR. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND WESTCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL. ENDS= ** WTPZ22 KNHC 220831 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022005 0900Z WED JUN 22 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 104.9W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 104.9W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 104.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.9N 106.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.1N 110.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.5N 112.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 17.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 17.5N 119.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 104.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 220831 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED JUN 22 2005 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS AT THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...SINCE THE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT VERY WELL DEFINED AND THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION...I HAVE OPTED NOT TO UPGRADE THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE MODESTLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVERSING COOLER WATERS AND IN A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...SO WEAKENING WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING BY THAT TIME. MY BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION...285/11...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OTHERWISE THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL PROVIDE A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST WITH DECELERATION IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE PERIOD...FOLLOWING THE SHALLOW-LAYER FLOW. BECAUSE OF THE SLIGHTLY FASTER INITIAL MOTION...THE OFFICIAL TRACK PREDICTION IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 14.5N 104.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 14.9N 106.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 15.5N 108.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 23/1800Z 16.1N 110.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 24/0600Z 16.5N 112.2W 55 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 17.0N 115.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 17.5N 117.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 17.5N 119.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 221000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 14.3N 104.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 104.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 14.9N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 15.5N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 16.1N 110.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 16.5N 112.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 17.0N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.5N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 17.5N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 221000Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 105.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 221000 RRC *** VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 17.5N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 221000Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 105.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 221000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 14.3N 104.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 104.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 14.9N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 15.5N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 16.1N 110.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 221000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 14.3N 104.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 075 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 104.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 14.9N 106.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 15.5N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 16.1N 110.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 16.5N 112.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 17.0N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.5N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 17.5N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 221000Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 105.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z.//