** WTSR20 WSSS 211800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ22 KNHC 220203 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022005 0300Z WED JUN 22 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 103.0W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 103.0W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 102.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.3N 104.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.9N 106.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.6N 108.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.4N 109.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.6N 113.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 18.0N 119.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 103.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 220204 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AS NOTED BY IMPROVING BANDING FEATURES AND AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATE OF 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA AND A 21/2130Z CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 1000.1 MB. ALSO ...CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BEEN ROTATING NORTHWARD AT 40 KT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ASSUMING THAT THIS MOTION IS EQUAL TO THE 700 MB WIND FLOW EQUATES TO ABOUT A 36 KT SURFACE WIND SPEED. OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED...BUT REMAINS ELONGATED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09...BASED MAINLY ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITIONS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER AND WEAKEN...AND BE TURNED MORE WESTWARD BY MODERATE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND REMAINS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE BAM MODELS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH NOW BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 59 KT IN 48H. THE PREVIOUS SHIPS OUTPUT WAS BASED ON THE MUCH FASTER MEDIUM BAM MODEL...WHEREAS THE 00Z SHIPS OUTPUT WAS BASED ON THE SLOWER OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 15 KT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION...SO A NEAR AVERAGE RATE OF STRENGTHENING SEEMS REASONABLE UNTIL AROUND 60H OR SO... WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL THEN BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS AND WEAKEN. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 13.9N 103.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 14.3N 104.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 14.9N 106.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 23/1200Z 15.6N 108.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 24/0000Z 16.4N 109.9W 55 KT 72HR VT 25/0000Z 17.6N 113.8W 45 KT 96HR VT 26/0000Z 18.0N 116.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 27/0000Z 18.0N 119.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 220400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 13.8N 102.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 102.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 14.3N 104.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 14.9N 106.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 15.6N 108.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 16.4N 109.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 17.6N 113.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z8 --- 18.0N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 18.0N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 220400Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 103.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221000Z, 221600Z, 222200Z AND 230400Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 220510 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.06.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 102.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP022005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.06.2005 13.6N 102.9W WEAK 12UTC 22.06.2005 14.3N 104.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.06.2005 15.3N 107.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.06.2005 16.2N 109.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.06.2005 16.4N 111.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.06.2005 16.8N 113.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.06.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 220510