** WTPZ42 KNHC 212030 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2005 THE DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND MODEST CONVECTIVE BANDING. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z INCLUDED A 2.0 FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM AFWA. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A BROAD CIRCULATION ABOUT AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER...WHICH WE BELIEVE HAS TIGHTENED UP SOME SINCE THEN. WHILE THE CONVECTION IS STILL A BIT ON THE THIN SIDE...THERE IS ENOUGH TO INITIATE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. BECAUSE THE CENTER IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT ESTIMATED TO BE 280/8. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A WEAK RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT... GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD WEAKEN IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH NEAR 130 WEST. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING PAST THE 26C ISOTHERM AND RESPONDING TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND GFS SOLUTIONS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND FOLLOWS THE SHALLOW BAM TRENDS THEREAFTER. EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT RATE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOING SO BY 72 HOURS. NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR THE GFDL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE SYSTEM UP TO 50 KT. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CLOSELY. FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 13.7N 102.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 14.0N 103.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 14.5N 105.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 15.2N 107.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 16.0N 109.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 112.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 18.0N 116.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 26/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 212031 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022005 2100Z TUE JUN 21 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 102.1W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 102.1W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 101.7W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.0N 103.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.5N 105.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.2N 107.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 20SE 20SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 102.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 212200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/MY/211451Z JUN 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z2 --- NEAR 13.7N1 102.1W4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N1 102.1W4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z0 --- 14.0N5 103.4W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z3 --- 14.5N0 105.2W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z1 --- 15.2N8 107.2W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z4 --- 16.0N7 109.0W0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z5 --- 17.5N3 112.5W9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z6 --- 18.0N9 116.0W8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z7 --- 18.0N9 119.0W1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 212200Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.8N2 102.5W8. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 211451Z JUN 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 211500Z9) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220400Z8, 221000Z5, 221600Z1 AND 222200Z8.//