** WTSR20 WSSS 210600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPN21 PGTW 211500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFORCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 211451ZJUN2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3N 100.7W TO 13.8N 106.6W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 211200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 101.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND 211227Z QUICKSCAT PASS RE- VEALS AN AREA OF CONVECTION AND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3N 101.8W, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LEVEL OUT- FLOW IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC AND THE SYSTEM IS IN A AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIG- NIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 221500Z.// ** WTIN20 DEMS 211600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 21 JUNE 2005 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC AAA MORNING'S DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF SAURASHTRA COAST REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY JUNE 21,2005 CLOSE TO PORBANDAR. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. ENDS= ** WTIN20 DEMS 211600 COR *** SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 21 JUNE 2005 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC AAA MORNING'S DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF SAURASHTRA COAST REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY JUNE 21,2005 CLOSE TO PORBANDAR. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. ENDS= ** WTNT80 EGRR 211654 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.06.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 13.7N 101.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.06.2005 13.7N 101.6W WEAK 00UTC 22.06.2005 13.5N 104.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.06.2005 13.0N 106.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.06.2005 13.7N 108.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.06.2005 14.1N 110.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.06.2005 14.0N 113.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.06.2005 14.6N 114.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.06.2005 14.7N 114.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.06.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 10.7N 93.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.06.2005 10.7N 93.4W WEAK 12UTC 23.06.2005 11.4N 94.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.06.2005 12.5N 95.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.06.2005 12.6N 96.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.06.2005 13.1N 97.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.06.2005 13.8N 97.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.06.2005 15.0N 97.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.06.2005 15.1N 97.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.06.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 211654