** WTUS84 KBMX 111804 AAA *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017>050-112130- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 102 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GULF SHORES ALABAMA. ARLENE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER OF ARLENE SHOULD CROSS THE COAST NEAR THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ARLENE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR ARLENE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL HAS DECREASED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SECURE ALL LOOSE OBJECTS...SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS... OR MOVE THEM INDOORS. FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE A PROBLEM DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT...WHERE WATER CAN QUICKLY FLOOD ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED IN THE DARK. DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. ...WIND IMPACTS... EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 MPH AND HIGHER IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER 6 PM...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A TUSCALOOSA...MONTGOMERY LINE WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN RAIN SQUALLS. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY WEST ALABAMA...NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...RAIN SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEEDER BANDS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH IN ANY PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS ARLENE WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND SATURATED SOIL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DOWNING OF SOME TREES ACROSS THE REGION. IF THESE TREES FALL ON POWER LINES...THERE COULD BE SOME POWER OUTAGES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... OUTER RAIN BANDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FROM ARLENE WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. STORM TOTALS (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) MAY APPROACH 4 TO 8 INCHES. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER BLACK WARRIOR RIVER AND TOMBIGBEE RIVER...WITH RIVERS RISING TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE ON THE TALLAPOOSA...ALABAMA...AND CAHABA RIVERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY AT APPROXIMATELY 4 PM TODAY. && $$ STEFKOVICH ** WTUS82 KTAE 111823 *** HLSTAE FLZ007-008-012-014-015-112230- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 218 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA... ...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA HAS BEEN CANCELLED... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PANHANDLE COUNTIES IN THE WARNED AREA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INCLUDING WALTON...BAY...GULF...AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EASTWARD TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE ABOVE COASTAL COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT (4 PM CDT). ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 PM EDT (1 PM CDT)...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GULF SHORES ALABAMA...OR ABOUT 110 MILES WEST OF PANAMA CITY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 991 MB. ARLENE WAS MOVING NORTH NEAR 14 MPH AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ALABAMA FLORIDA BORDER WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE WEAKENED TO 60 MPH. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM ARLENE HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEAST GULF...AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE SOME LOCAL WIND REPORTS AS OF 1 PM CDT... PANAMA CITY...SOUTH AT 23 GUSTING TO 30 MPH. EGLIN AIR FORCE BASE...SOUTHEAST AT 32 GUSTING TO 41 MPH. APALACHICOLA...SOUTHEAST AT 22 GUSTING TO 33 MPH. APALACHICOLA BUOY...SOUTHEAST 18 MPH GUSTING TO 24 MPH. PANAMA CITY BUOY...SOUTH 22 MPH GUSTING TO 29 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ARLENE CONTINUES TO WRAP IN QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT LOCAL FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN SLOW MOVING RAIN BANDS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE STILL RUNNING 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL FROM APALACHICOLA TO PANAMA CITY. THESE TIDES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THE STORM MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. SOME BEACH EROSION WILL OCCUR IN VULNERABLE LOCATIONS INCLUDING CAPE SAN BLAS DUE TO BATTERING WAVES. THE ROAD TO ALLIGATOR POINT HAD BEEN WASHED OUT. SPECIFIC TIDE FORECASTS FOLLOW... APALACHICOLA... TODAY: LOW 1:30 PM...HIGH 6:07 PM EDT PORT ST JOE... TODAY: HIGH 1:12 PM SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY... TODAY: HIGH 12:39 PM...LOW 11:53 PM CDT. ...RIP CURRENTS... ONSHORE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS ALL OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. HOWEVER NO TORNADOES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AROUND 630 PM EDT (530 PM CDT) THIS AFTERNOON. $$ FOURNIER ** WTUS84 KLIX 111828 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-058-060>064-068>070-MSZ080>082-112100- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 130 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...ARLENE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES IN LOUISIANA... JEFFERSON...LIVINGSTON...ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD... ST CHARLES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY AND TANGIPAHOA. IN ADDITION....THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR HANCOCK AND HARRISON COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST OR ABOUT 20 SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GULF SHORES ALABAMA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER OF ARLENE SHOULD CROSS THE COAST NEAR THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. ARLENE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR ARLENE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL HAS DECREASED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST SHOULD PREPARE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTS...40 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IF ARLENE INTENSIFIES BEFORE LANDFALL. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS AND NEAR TIDAL LAKES OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...TIDES WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OF JACKSON COUNTY. OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...TIDES WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES OF ST BERNARD... PLAQUEMINES AND EASTERN ORLEANS PARISHES. SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO OCCUR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND GRAND ISLE LATER TODAY. ...WIND IMPACTS.... NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HIGHER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALLS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...PRIMARILY IN GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY. ...RAINFALL... HEAVY RAIN IN SQUALLS WILL IMPACT JACKSON COUNTY WITH LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER HANCOCK AND HARRISON COUNTIES IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND AROUND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH TODAY. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 430 PM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KMOB 111925 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-112200- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 225 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE PENSACOLA AREA... ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN BALDWIN...MOBILE...WASHINGTON...CHOCTAW...WILCOX...MONROE... CLARKE...CONECUH...BUTLER...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA AND COVINGTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. FOR ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. FOR STONE...GEORGE... GREENE...PERRY AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA. THE INLAND HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF BALDWIN...MOBILE...ESCAMBIA... SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. A FLOOD WATCH AND TORNADO WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 220 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN PENSACOLA FLORIDA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 991 MB...OR 29.26 INCHES. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE LIVING IN THE PENSACOLA AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS OR TORNADOS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 3.0 TO 5.0 FEET IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF EXPECTED LANDFALL...MAINLY FROM PERDIDO KEY TO DESTIN. THIS WILL FLOOD SOME HOMES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE ELEVATION IS LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND ON SOME INLAND BAYS AND WATERWAYS. ROADS NEAR THE COAST WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED WITH WATER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN PERDIDO BEACH AND NAVARRE BEACH...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO NEAR 55 MPH POSSIBLE. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH DUE TO HIGH SURF AND STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING...SURFING AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL ARLENE MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES. THE ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG AREA RIVERS NEED TO MONITOR ARLENE'S EXACT PATH AS WELL AS WIND INTENSITY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND SHOULD RIVER FLOODING DEVELOP. ...TORNADO THREAT... A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 4 PM CDT. ...NEW INFORMATION... REFER TO SHORT TERM FORECASTS (BHMNOWMOB) FOR MORE STORM SPECIFIC IMPACTS AND HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 500 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. $$ PURDY ** WTNT21 KNHC 112017 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005 2100Z SAT JUN 11 2005 AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...ALL HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS AND ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED...EXCEPT FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST FROM THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER EASTWARD TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ONLY FROM THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER EASTWARD TO PANAMA CITY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 87.4W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 125SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 87.4W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 87.4W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 32.5N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 36.0N 87.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 87.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 112018 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...CENTER OF ARLENE MOVES INLAND JUST WEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA... AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...ALL HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS AND ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED...EXCEPT FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST FROM THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER EASTWARD TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ONLY FROM THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER EASTWARD TO PANAMA CITY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE LARGE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING THE CENTER OF ARLENE FARTHER INLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND OVER WATER. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CONTINUES EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER HAS MADE LANDFALL. SURGE AND WAVES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COASTAL WATER LEVELS ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE TO THE WEST OF WHERE THE CENTER HAS MADE LANDFALL. ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE STORM TRACK...FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...30.7 N... 87.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 112020 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 36.0N 87.5W 37 X X X 37 MOBILE AL 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL 11 X X X 11 GULF 29N 87W 31 X X X 31 PENSACOLA FL 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM SUN TO 1AM MON C FROM 1AM MON TO 1PM MON D FROM 1PM MON TO 1PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 112020 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005 THE LARGE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF ARLENE CROSSED THE COAST JUST WEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AROUND 1900 UTC. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL WAS 991 MB...WHICH IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE PENSACOLA NAVAL AIR STATION AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE HAVE BEEN DECREASING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT THIS TIME IS 45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER. SINCE ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD AND FARTHER INLAND AT ABOUT 13 KT...IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE HAS BEEN MORE SYMMETRIC TODAY...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...T-NUMBERS TODAY WERE UP TO 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...THE HIGHEST OBSERVED IN ARLENE. THIS COINCIDED WITH A CONTRACTION OF THE WIND FIELD. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 30.7N 87.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 32.5N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 12/1800Z 36.0N 87.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 112031 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-058-060>064-068>070-MSZ080>082-112200- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...ALL WARNINGS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED... ...CENTER OF ARLENE MOVES INLAND JUST WEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES IN LOUISIANA... JEFFERSON...LIVINGSTON...ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD... ST CHARLES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY AND TANGIPAHOA. IN ADDITION....THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... ALL WARNINGS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 15 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BRINGING THE CENTER OF ARLENE FARTHER INLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ARLENE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. TIDES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS.... NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ...RAINFALL... OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL AFFECT JACKSON AND HARRISON COUNTIES IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN JACKSON AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF HARRISON COUNTY. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT REGARDING TROPICAL STORM ARLENE. $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 112036 *** TCVAT1 ARLENE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 .TROPICAL STORM ARLENE MSC059-GMZ555-575-120300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 PASCAGOULA-MS 30.35N 88.55W MS/AL-BORDER 30.38N 88.32W $$ MSC045-047-120300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W PASCAGOULA-MS 30.35N 88.55W $$ ALC003-097-FLC033-091-113-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-120300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1001.050611T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 MS/AL-BORDER 30.38N 88.32W DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W $$ FLC005-131-GMZ750-770-120300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W PANAMA-CITY-FL 30.12N 85.70W $$ LAC051-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-GMZ530-550-570-120300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 GRAND-ISLE-LA 29.25N 89.96W MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W $$ FLC037-GMZ755-775-120300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W OCHLOCKONEE-RIVER-FL 29.96N 84.40W $$ FLC005-045-GMZ750-770-120300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 PANAMA-CITY-FL 30.12N 85.70W INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W $$ FLC131-120300- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W PANAMA-CITY-FL 30.12N 85.70W $$ FLC045-120300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 PANAMA-CITY-FL 30.12N 85.70W INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W $$ ATTN...WFO...LIX...TAE...MOB... ** WTCA41 TJSJ 112043 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SABADO 11 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...EL CENTRO DE ARLENE SE MUEVE SOBRE TIERRA JUSTO AL OESTE DE PENSACOLA FLORIDA... A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...TODAS LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS DE HURACAN Y TODOS LOS AVISOS COSTEROS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTAN DESCONTINUADOS...EXCEPTO PARA UNA PARTE DE LA COSTA DESDE LA FRONTERA DE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI HACIA EL ESTE HASTA PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. SOLO CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE LA FRONTERA DE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI HACIA EL ESTE HASTA PANAMA CITY. POSIBLEMENTE EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SERA DESCONTINUADO MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE TIERRA...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 4 PM CDT...2100Z...EL AMPLIO CENTRO DE CIRCULACION DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO SOBRE TIERRA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.4 OESTE O COMO A 20 MILLAS AL NOROESTE DE PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS... TRAYENDO EL CENTRO DE ARLENE AUN MAS TIERRA ADENTRO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO HASTA CERCA DE 50 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES...CONFINADOS AL SURESTE DEL CENTRO Y SOBRE EL AGUA. SE PRONOSTICA DEBILITAMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 115 MILLAS AL SURESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 991 MB...29.26 PULGADAS. INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...ACOMPANADAS DE GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CONTINUAN AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO HA ENTRADO A TIERRA. LA MAREJADA Y LAS OLAS DEBEN DISMINUIR GRADUALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS HORAS. LOS NIVELES DE LAS AGUAS COSTERAS ESTAN COMENZANDO A DISMINUIR AL OESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO HA ENTRADO A TIERRA. SE ESPERA QUE ARLENE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS PRIMORDIALMENTE AL NORTE Y JUSTO AL OESTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE LA TORMENTA...DESDE EL VALLE BAJO DE MISSISSIPPI HACIA EL NORTE HASTA PARTES DEL ESTE DE INDIANA Y EL OESTE DE OHIO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN ESTA AREA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 PM CDT...30.7 NORTE... 87.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 991 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA/KNABB $$ ** WTUS84 KMOB 112106 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-120100- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE MOVES INLAND ACROSS ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALABAMA/ MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN BALDWIN...MOBILE...WASHINGTON...CHOCTAW...WILCOX...MONROE... CLARKE...CONECUH...BUTLER...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA AND COVINGTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. FOR ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. FOR STONE...GEORGE... GREENE...PERRY AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA... SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF BALDWIN...MOBILE...ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 355 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST OR ABOUT 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN PENSACOLA FLORIDA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 991 MB...OR 29.26 INCHES. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE LIVING IN THE PATH OF THE OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SHOULD PREPARE FOR BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADOS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 3.0 TO 5.0 FEET IS STILL POSSIBLE EAST OF THE EYE...MAINLY FROM PENSACOLA BEACH TO DESTIN. THIS WILL FLOOD SOME HOMES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE ELEVATION IS LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND ON SOME INLAND BAYS AND WATERWAYS. ROADS NEAR THE COAST WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED WITH WATER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SURFACE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH POSSIBLE. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH DUE TO HIGH SURF AND STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING...SURFING AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL ARLENE MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 4 INCHES. THE ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG AREA RIVERS NEED TO MONITOR ARLENE'S EXACT PATH AS WELL AS WIND INTENSITY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND SHOULD RIVER FLOODING DEVELOP. ...NEW INFORMATION... REFER TO SHORT TERM FORECASTS (BHMNOWMOB) FOR MORE STORM SPECIFIC IMPACTS AND HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 800 PM CDT THIS EVENING. $$ PURDY/CULLEN ** WTUS82 KTAE 112107 *** HLSTAE FLZ007-008-012-120130- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 501 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EASTWARD TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA... ...AND INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES... ...ALL OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INCLUDING WALTON AND BAY COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EASTWARD TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE ABOVE COASTAL COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 991 MB. ARLENE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING FARTHER INLAND AND WEAKENING. HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 50 MPH IN A FEW SQUALLS OVER THE WATER SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON...OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET. HERE ARE SOME LOCAL WIND REPORTS AS OF 3 PM CDT... PANAMA CITY...SOUTH AT 17 GUSTING TO 28 MPH. EGLIN AIR FORCE BASE...SOUTH AT 30 GUSTING TO 49 MPH. APALACHICOLA...SOUTH AT 23 GUSTING TO 29 MPH. APALACHICOLA BUOY...SOUTH AT 18 MPH. PANAMA CITY BUOY...SOUTHWEST 22 MPH GUSTING TO 26 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ARLENE CONTINUES TO WRAP IN QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT LOCAL FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY IN A FEW SLOW MOVING RAIN BANDS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE STILL RUNNING 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL FROM APALACHICOLA TO PANAMA CITY. THESE TIDES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THE STORM MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. SOME BEACH EROSION WILL OCCUR IN VULNERABLE LOCATIONS INCLUDING CAPE SAN BLAS DUE TO BATTERING WAVES. THE ROAD TO ALLIGATOR POINT HAD BEEN WASHED OUT. SPECIFIC TIDE FORECASTS FOLLOW... APALACHICOLA... TODAY: LOW 1:30 PM...HIGH 6:07 PM EDT PORT ST JOE... TODAY: HIGH 1:12 PM SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY... TODAY: HIGH 12:39 PM...LOW 11:53 PM CDT. ...RIP CURRENTS... ONSHORE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON. ...TORNADO THREAT... THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES HAS DIMINISHED AS ARLENE HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED INLAND. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AROUND 830 PM CDT THIS EVENING. $$ FOURNIER ** WTNT31 KNHC 112350 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...ARLENE WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING STILL A THREAT... AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST... NEAR BARLOW BEND ALABAMA...OR ALSO ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF JACKSON ALABAMA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE STORM TRACK...FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. COASTAL WATER LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL AREAS OF ALABAMA AND FLORIDA. HOWEVER...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...31.4 N... 87.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 112350 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...ARLENE WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING STILL A THREAT... AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST... NEAR BARLOW BEND ALABAMA...OR ALSO ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF JACKSON ALABAMA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE STORM TRACK...FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. COASTAL WATER LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL AREAS OF ALABAMA AND FLORIDA. HOWEVER...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...31.4 N... 87.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 112350 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...ARLENE WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING STILL A THREAT... AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST... NEAR BARLOW BEND ALABAMA...OR ALSO ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF JACKSON ALABAMA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE STORM TRACK...FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. COASTAL WATER LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL AREAS OF ALABAMA AND FLORIDA. HOWEVER...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...31.4 N... 87.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 112350 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...ARLENE WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING STILL A THREAT... AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST... NEAR BARLOW BEND ALABAMA...OR ALSO ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF JACKSON ALABAMA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE STORM TRACK...FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. COASTAL WATER LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL AREAS OF ALABAMA AND FLORIDA. HOWEVER...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...31.4 N... 87.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$