** WTSR20 WSSS 110600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT81 KNHC 111207 *** TCVAT1 ARLENE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 .TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ALC003-097-FLC033-091-113-MSC059-GMZ555-575-630-650-655-670-675- 111500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 PASCAGOULA-MS 30.35N 88.55W DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W $$ MSC045-047-111500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W PASCAGOULA-MS 30.35N 88.55W $$ FLC005-045-131-GMZ750-770-111500- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W $$ LAC051-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-GMZ530-550-570-111500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 GRAND-ISLE-LA 29.25N 89.96W MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W $$ FLC037-065-123-129-GMZ750-755-770-775-111500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W $$ FLC005-045-131-111500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W $$ ATTN...WFO...LIX...TAE...MOB... ** WTUS84 KBMX 111226 *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017>050-111600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 700 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR ARLENE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SECURE ALL LOOSE OBJECTS...SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS... OR MOVE THEM INDOORS. FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE A PROBLEM DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT...WHERE WATER CAN QUICKLY FLOOD ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED IN THE DARK. DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...MAINLY ALONG LOWNDES...DALLAS...MARENGO...AND SUMTER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS ARLENE MAKES LANDFALL. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM CARROLLTON TO SELMA AND FORT DEPOSIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE... WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... OUTER RAIN BANDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FROM ARLENE WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. STORM TOTALS (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) MAY APPROACH 4 TO 8 INCHES. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER BLACK WARRIOR RIVER AND TOMBIGBEE RIVER...WITH RIVERS RISING TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE ON THE TALLAPOOSA...ALABAMA...AND CAHABA RIVERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 10 AM TODAY. && $$ ** WTUS82 KTAE 111310 *** HLSTAE GMZ750-755-770-775-FLZ007>015-018-026>028-111630- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 751 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FROM DESTIN TO STEINHATCHEE FLORIDA... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE INCLUDING WALTON...BAY...GULF... FRANKLIN...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...TAYLOR...LIBERTY...CALHOUN... WASHINGTON...JACKSON...AND HOLMES COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM EAST OF DESTIN EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COASTAL COUNTIES EASTWARD TO STEINHATCHEE. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE ABOVE COASTAL COUNTIES...AS WELL AS LIBERTY...CALHOUN... JACKSON... WASHINGTON...HOLMES...AND INLAND WALTON COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT (4 PM CDT). ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 AM EDT (7 AM CDT)...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA...OR ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 990 MB. ARLENE WAS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND ARLENE WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR MOBILE LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ARLEN IS A RATHER LARGE TROPICAL STORM WITH STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM ARLENE ARE MOST LIKELY OCCURRING NOW ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEAST GULF SINCE THE STORM IS AT ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO THIS AREA. SO FAR MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN IN GUSTS OVER THE GULF OR AT APALACHICOLA. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS THIS MORNING. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE MORE LIKELY. THE THREAT OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE BIG BEND COAST EAST OF ST MARKS IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING...BUT A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IF SOME HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA. HERE ARE SOME LOCAL WIND REPORTS AS OF 8 AM EDT (7 AM CDT)... PANAMA CITY...EAST AT 17 GUSTING TO 24 MPH. APALACHICOLA...SOUTHEAST AT 23 GUSTING TO 31 MPH. GULF C TOWER (100 FT ABOVE MSL)...39 MPH GUSTING TO 46 MPH. APALACHICOLA BUOY...31 MPH GUSTING TO 38 MPH. PANAMA CITY BUOY...33 MPH GUSTING TO 39 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ARLENE IS BEGINNING TO WRAP IN QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT LOCAL FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY TODAY...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN NARROW...SLOW MOVING RAIN BANDS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE HIGHEST STORM SURGE IS PROBABLY OCCURRING THIS MORNING. HERE ARE SOME RECENT REPORTS... PANAMA CITY...1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. APALACHICOLA...2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. CEDAR KEY...2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THESE STORM SURGE VALUES OF 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME BEACH EROSION WILL OCCUR IN VULNERABLE LOCATIONS INCLUDING CAPE SAN BLAS DUE TO BATTERING WAVES...WITH BREAKERS POSSIBLY REACHING 12 TO 15 FEET. NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND COULD ADD TO THE STORM TIDE LEVELS. SPECIFIC TIDE FORECASTS FOLLOW... ST MARKS... TODAY: HIGH 6:20 AM...LOW 11:11 AM...HIGH 4:51 PM EDT APALACHICOLA... TODAY: HIGH 9:26 AM...LOW 1:30 PM...HIGH 6:07 PM EDT PORT ST JOE... TODAY: HIGH 1:12 PM SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY... TODAY: HIGH 12:39 PM...LOW 11:53 PM CDT. ...RIP CURRENTS... ONSHORE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS ALL OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AROUND 1230 PM EDT (1130 PM CDT) THIS AFTERNOON. $$ FOURNIER ** WTUS84 KBMX 111315 AAA *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017>050-111600- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED FOR TROPICAL STORM WARNING... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 800 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR ARLENE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SECURE ALL LOOSE OBJECTS...SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS... OR MOVE THEM INDOORS. FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE A PROBLEM DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT...WHERE WATER CAN QUICKLY FLOOD ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED IN THE DARK. DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. ...WIND IMPACTS... EXPECT EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 MPH AND HIGHER IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM CARROLLTON TO SELMA AND FORT DEPOSIT...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN RAIN SQUALLS. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY WEST ALABAMA...NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...RAIN SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEEDER BANDS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH IN ANY PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS ARLENE WEAKENS. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... OUTER RAIN BANDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FROM ARLENE WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. STORM TOTALS (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) MAY APPROACH 4 TO 8 INCHES. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER BLACK WARRIOR RIVER AND TOMBIGBEE RIVER...WITH RIVERS RISING TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE ON THE TALLAPOOSA...ALABAMA...AND CAHABA RIVERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 11 AM TODAY. && $$ ** WTUS84 KMOB 111357 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-111700- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 855 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN BALDWIN...MOBILE...WASHINGTON...CHOCTAW...WILCOX...MONROE... CLARKE...CONECUH...BUTLER...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA AND COVINGTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. FOR ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. FOR STONE...GEORGE... GREENE...PERRY AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF BALDWIN AND MOBILE IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 990 MB...OR 29.23 INCHES. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE NEAR THE ALABAMA COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE BURSTS STRONGER CONVECTION NEAR THE STORM CENTER. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR ARLENE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE RECOMMENDED EVACUATIONS OF ALL LOW LYING AREAS. ANYONE LIVING IN MOBILE HOMES...MANUFACTURED HOMES...TRAVEL TRAILERS OR FEMA GROUP SITES SHOULD ALSO EVACUATE. ALSO...EVACUATION OF SOME LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS SUCH AS BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS DIRECTLY ON THE GULF IS BEING RECOMMENDED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. LISTEN TO LOCAL TV OR RADIO FOR DETAILS ON AREAS AFFECTED OR FOR INFORMATION ON SHELTERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 3.5 TO 5.5 FEET IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINES TODAY. THIS WILL FLOOD SOME HOMES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE ELEVATION IS LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND ON SOME INLAND BAYS AND WATERWAYS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF NEAR 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO NEAR 75 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE INLAND COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH DUE TO INCREASING HIGH SURF AND STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING...SURFING AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL ARLENE MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE NIGHT. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR NORTH AND EAST OF ARLENE'S PATH. AS A RESULT...THE ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG AREA RIVERS NEED TO MONITOR ARLENE'S EXACT PATH AS WELL AS WIND INTENSITY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND SHOULD RIVER FLOODING DEVELOP. ...TORNADO THREAT... LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE CENTER OF ARLENE NEARS THE COAST. AS A RESULT...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 4 PM CDT. ...NEW INFORMATION... SHORT TERM FORECASTS (BHMNOWMOB) ARE BEING ISSUED HOURLY AND THESE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE AS SHE MOVES ACROSS THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1100 AM CDT THIS MORNING. $$ PURDY ** WTNT31 KNHC 111439 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...WINDS AND RAINS INCREASING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS THE CENTER OF ARLENE APPROACHES... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM EAST OF OCHLOCKNEE RIVER TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND ALSO FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKNEE RIVER FLORIDA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE SHOULD CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. ARLENE REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ARLENE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ARLENE FROM THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TODAY. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...29.6 N... 87.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 111441 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ARLENE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED SINCE LAST NIGHT. THE STORM CONTINUES WITH A WELL-DEFINED AND LARGE CIRCULATION...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO SOME BANDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN OSCILLATING AROUND 990 MB ACCORDING TO FIXES FROM HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES. MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE REMAINED AT 60 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS ESTIMATE MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. DUE TO THE CURRENT STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE...IT APPEARS THAT THE CHANCES OF ARLENE BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL ARE DECREASING. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WATER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER BURST OF CONVECTION...LIKE THE ONE THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY...COULD BRING THE WINDS UP TO HURRICANE STATUS. GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE BEST OPTION IS TO KEEP THE HURRICANE WARNING AT THIS TIME. ARLENE HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRRENTS IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE CENTER OF ARLENE SHOULD CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. AFTER LANDFALL ARLENE SHOULD WEAKEN BUT CONTINUE SPREADING HEAVY RAINS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE NOT JUST A COASTAL EVENT AND HEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND AND LONG AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 29.6N 87.4W 60 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 31.5N 88.0W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 12/1200Z 34.0N 88.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 13/0000Z 37.5N 87.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 111441 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005 1500Z SAT JUN 11 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM EAST OF OCHLOCKNEE RIVER TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND ALSO FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKNEE RIVER FLORIDA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 87.4W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 120SE 60SW 130NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 87.4W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 87.2W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.5N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 34.0N 88.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 37.5N 87.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 87.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 111441 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.0N 88.0W 36 3 X X 39 GULFPORT MS 62 X X X 62 37.5N 87.5W 1 30 X X 31 BURAS LA 11 X X X 11 APALACHICOLA FL 7 X X X 7 NEW ORLEANS LA 4 X X X 4 PANAMA CITY FL 42 X X X 42 GULF 29N 85W 8 X X X 8 PENSACOLA FL 99 X X X 99 GULF 29N 87W 99 X X X 99 MOBILE AL 79 X X X 79 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7AM SUN TO 7PM SUN C FROM 7PM SUN TO 7AM MON D FROM 7AM MON TO 7AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 111446 *** TCVAT1 ARLENE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 .TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ALC003-097-FLC033-091-113-MSC059-GMZ555-575-630-650-655-670-675- 112100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 PASCAGOULA-MS 30.35N 88.55W DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W $$ MSC045-047-112100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W PASCAGOULA-MS 30.35N 88.55W $$ FLC005-045-131-GMZ750-770-112100- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W $$ LAC051-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-GMZ530-550-570-112100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 GRAND-ISLE-LA 29.25N 89.96W MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W $$ FLC037-GMZ750-755-770-775-112100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W OCHLOCKONEE-RIVER-FL 29.96N 84.40W $$ FLC065-123-129-112100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 OCHLOCKONEE-RIVER-FL 29.96N 84.40W STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W $$ FLC005-045-131-112100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W $$ ATTN...WFO...LIX...TAE...MOB... ** WTUS84 KBMX 111501 AAA *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017>050-111800- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1002 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. ARLENE REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ARLENE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SECURE ALL LOOSE OBJECTS...SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS... OR MOVE THEM INDOORS. FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE A PROBLEM DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT...WHERE WATER CAN QUICKLY FLOOD ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED IN THE DARK. DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. ...WIND IMPACTS... EXPECT EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 MPH AND HIGHER IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER 6 PM...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A TUSCALOOSA...MONTGOMERY LINE WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN RAIN SQUALLS. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY WEST ALABAMA...NEAR AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...RAIN SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEEDER BANDS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH IN ANY PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS ARLENE WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND SATURATED SOIL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DOWNING OF SOME TREES ACROSS THE REGION. IT THESE TREES FALL ON POWER LINES...THERE COULD BE SOME POWER OUTAGES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... OUTER RAIN BANDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FROM ARLENE WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. STORM TOTALS (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) MAY APPROACH 4 TO 8 INCHES. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER BLACK WARRIOR RIVER AND TOMBIGBEE RIVER...WITH RIVERS RISING TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE ON THE TALLAPOOSA...ALABAMA...AND CAHABA RIVERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY AT APPROXIMATELY 1 PM TODAY. && $$ STEFKOVICH ** WTUS84 KLIX 111513 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-058-060>064-068>070-MSZ080>082-111900- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1015 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...ARLENE CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES IN LOUISIANA... JEFFERSON...LIVINGSTON...ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD... ST CHARLES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY AND TANGIPAHOA. IN ADDITION....THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR HANCOCK AND HARRISON COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. ARLENE REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ARLENE TO BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR POSSIBLE CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE CONDITIONS INCLUDING...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS...75 MPH AND HIGHER...AND TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS. RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST SHOULD PREPARE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...40 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS AND NEAR TIDAL LAKES OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...TIDES WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OF JACKSON COUNTY. OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...TIDES WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES OF ST BERNARD... PLAQUEMINES AND EASTERN ORLEANS PARISHES. SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO OCCUR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND GRAND ISLE LATER TODAY. ...WIND IMPACTS.... NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HIGHER MAY AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST TODAY...PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALLS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...PRIMARILY IN GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE IN JACKSON COUNTY. ...RAINFALL... HEAVY RAIN IN SQUALLS WILL IMPACT JACKSON COUNTY WITH LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER HANCOCK AND HARRISON COUNTIES IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND AROUND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH TODAY. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130 PM CDT. $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 111525 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SABADO 11 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...VIENTOS Y LLUVIA AUMENTANDO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO A MEDIDA QUE ARLENE SE APROXIMA... UN AVISO DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA PARTES DE LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DESDE PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI HACIA EL ESTE HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL HACIA EL ESTE HASTA EL OESTE DE PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...Y TAMBIEN DESDE EL ESTE DE DESTIN FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DESDE EL ESTE DEL RIO OCHOLOCKNEE HASTA EL RIO STEINHATCHEE FUE DESCONTINUADO. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DESDE GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL...INCLUYENDO LA CUIDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...Y TAMBIEN DESDE INDIAN PASS FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA EL RIO OCHLOCKNEE FLORIDA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NORESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO Y EL SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 10 AM CDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE FUE LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.4 OESTE O COMO A 110 MILLAS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI Y COMO A 85 MILLAS AL SUR-SURESTE DE MOBILE ALABAMA. ARLENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. CON ESTE MOVIMIENTO EL CENTRO DE ARLENE DEBE CRUZAR LA COSTA DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO MAS TARDE HOY. ARLENE PERMANECE JUSTO BAJO LA INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN CON VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS CERCA DE 70 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EXISTE UNA LEVE POSIBILIDAD DE QUE ARLENE SE TORNE EN HURACAN ANTES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS...MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA CENTRAL SE ESTIMA EN 990 MB...29.23 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...ACOMPANADAS DE GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. LOS NIVELES DE LAS AGUAS ACTUALMENTE ESTAN DE UNO A DOS PIES SOBRE LA MAREA NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO. SE ESPERAN ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS DESDE EL ESTE Y LA COSTA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA EL VALLE DE TENNESSEE Y HASTA LA PARTE BAJA DEL VALLE DE OHIO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DOS DIAS. CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LA VECINDAD DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. TORNADOS AISLADOS PODRIAN OCURRIR SOBRE PARTES DEL SUR DE ALABAMA...EL SUROESTE DE GEORGIA...FLORIDA PANHANDLE Y EL NOROESTE DE LA FLORIDA HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 10 AM CDT...29.6 NORTE...87.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...990 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 PM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA/KNABB $$ ** WTUS82 KTAE 111552 *** HLSTAE GMZ750-755-770-775-FLZ007-008-012-014-015-111930- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1142 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FROM DESTIN TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA... ...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO STEINHATCHEE HAS BEEN CANCELLED... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PANHANDLE COUNTIES IN THE WARNED AREA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE INCLUDING WALTON...BAY...GULF...AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM EAST OF DESTIN EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EASTWARD TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE ABOVE COASTAL COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT (4 PM CDT). ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT (10 AM CDT)...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA...OR ABOUT 110 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 990 MB. ARLENE WAS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND ARLENE WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR MOBILE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE ARLENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ARLENE IS A RATHER LARGE TROPICAL STORM WITH STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM ARLENE HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEAST GULF. MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN IN GUSTS OVER THE GULF OR AT APALACHICOLA. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HERE ARE SOME LOCAL WIND REPORTS AS OF 10 AM CDT... PANAMA CITY...EAST AT 16 GUSTING TO 25 MPH. APALACHICOLA...SOUTHEAST AT 24 GUSTING TO 38 MPH. GULF C TOWER (100 FT ABOVE MSL)...39 MPH GUSTING TO 45 MPH. APALACHICOLA BUOY...26 MPH GUSTING TO 38 MPH. PANAMA CITY BUOY...26 MPH GUSTING TO 33 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ARLENE CONTINUES TO WRAP IN QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT LOCAL FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN SLOW MOVING RAIN BANDS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE HIGHEST STORM SURGE IS PROBABLY OCCURRING THIS MORNING. AS OF 10 AM CDT TIDES WERE RUNNING 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT PANAMA CITY... APALACHICOLA...AND CEDAR KEY. THESE STORM SURGE VALUES OF 2 TO 4 FEET SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME BEACH EROSION WILL OCCUR IN VULNERABLE LOCATIONS INCLUDING CAPE SAN BLAS DUE TO BATTERING WAVES. THE ROAD TO ALLIGATOR POINT HAD BEEN WASHED OUT. SPECIFIC TIDE FORECASTS FOLLOW... ST MARKS... TODAY: LOW 11:11 AM...HIGH 4:51 PM EDT. APALACHICOLA... TODAY: HIGH 9:26 AM...LOW 1:30 PM...HIGH 6:07 PM EDT PORT ST JOE... TODAY: HIGH 1:12 PM SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY... TODAY: HIGH 12:39 PM...LOW 11:53 PM CDT. ...RIP CURRENTS... ONSHORE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS ALL OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AROUND 330 PM EDT (230 PM CDT) THIS AFTERNOON. $$ FOURNIER ** WTUS84 KMOB 111603 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-111900- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1100 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN BALDWIN...MOBILE...WASHINGTON...CHOCTAW...WILCOX...MONROE... CLARKE...CONECUH...BUTLER...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA AND COVINGTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. FOR ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. FOR STONE...GEORGE... GREENE...PERRY AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF BALDWIN AND MOBILE IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 990 MB...OR 29.23 INCHES. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE NEAR THE ALABAMA COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE BURSTS OF STRONGER CONVECTION NEAR THE STORM CENTER. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR ARLENE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE RECOMMENDED EVACUATIONS OF ALL LOW LYING AREAS. ANYONE LIVING IN MOBILE HOMES...MANUFACTURED HOMES...TRAVEL TRAILERS OR FEMA GROUP SITES SHOULD ALSO EVACUATE. ALSO...EVACUATION OF SOME LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS SUCH AS BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS DIRECTLY ON THE GULF IS BEING RECOMMENDED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. LISTEN TO LOCAL TV OR RADIO FOR DETAILS ON AREAS AFFECTED OR FOR INFORMATION ON SHELTERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 3.5 TO 5.5 FEET IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF EXPECTED LANDFALL...MAINLY FROM GULF SHORES ALABAMA TO FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FLOOD SOME HOMES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE ELEVATION IS LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND ON SOME INLAND BAYS AND WATERWAYS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF NEAR 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN FORT MORGAN AND PENSACOLA BEACH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE TO NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY MID AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL THEN AFFECT THE INLAND COUNTIES NEAR THE STORM CENTER LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH DUE TO INCREASING HIGH SURF AND STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING...SURFING AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL ARLENE MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE NIGHT. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR NORTH AND EAST OF ARLENE'S PATH. AS A RESULT...THE ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG AREA RIVERS NEED TO MONITOR ARLENE'S EXACT PATH AS WELL AS WIND INTENSITY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND SHOULD RIVER FLOODING DEVELOP. ...TORNADO THREAT... LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE CENTER OF ARLENE NEARS THE COAST. AS A RESULT...A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 4 PM CDT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 200 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. $$ PURDY/CULLEN ** WTNT80 EGRR 111724 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.06.2005 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ANALYSED POSITION : 28.9N 87.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.06.2005 28.9N 87.4W STRONG 00UTC 12.06.2005 30.8N 87.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.06.2005 34.3N 88.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.06.2005 38.2N 87.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.06.2005 41.2N 85.4W EXTRA TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 111724 ** WTNT31 KNHC 111737 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ARLENE A LITTLE WEAKER...CHANCES OF BECOMING A HURRICANE DIMINISHING... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKNEE RIVER FLORIDA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GULF SHORES ALABAMA. ARLENE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER OF ARLENE SHOULD CROSS THE COAST NEAR THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ARLENE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR ARLENE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL HAS DECREASED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ARLENE FROM THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TODAY. REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...30.0 N... 87.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 111755 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 13A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT SABADO 11 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ENCONTRO A ARLENE UN POCO MAS DEBIL...DISMINUYEN LAS POSIBILIDADES PARA QUE SE CONVIERTA EN HURACAN... UN AVISO DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA PARTES DE LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DESDE PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI HACIA EL ESTE HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL HACIA EL ESTE HASTA EL OESTE DE PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. A LA 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN DESDE EL ESTE DE DESTIN HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA FUE DESCONTINUADA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DESDE GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL...INCLUYENDO LA CUIDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...Y TAMBIEN DESDE EL ESTE DE DESTIN FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA EL RIO OCHLOCKNEE FLORIDA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL NORESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO Y EL SURESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR DE MANTENERSE ATENTOS A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 1 PM CDT...1800Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 30.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 87.5 OESTE O COMO A 20 MILLAS AL SUR-SURESTE DE GULF SHORES ALABAMA. ARLENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. CON ESTE MOVIMIENTO EL AMPLIO CENTRO DE CIRCULACION DE ARLENE DEBE CRUZAR LA COSTA CERCA DE LA FRONTERA DE ALABAMA Y FLORIDA EN LAS PROXIMAS HORAS. DATA DEL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO INDICAN QUE ARLENE SE HA DEBILITADO LIGERAMENTE PERO PERMANECE COMO UNA FUERTE TORMENTA TROPICAL CON VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS CERCA DE 60 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EL POTENCIAL PARA QUE ARLENE SE CONVIERTA EN HURACAN ANTES DE ENTRAR A TIERRA HA DISMINUIDO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 150 MILLAS...MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA INFORMADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO FUE DE 991 MB...29.26 PULGADAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...ACOMPANADAS DE GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. LOS NIVELES DE LAS AGUAS ACTUALMENTE ESTAN DE UNO A DOS PIES SOBRE LA MAREA NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO. SE ESPERAN ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS DESDE EL ESTE Y LA COSTA CENTRAL DEL GOLFO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA EL VALLE DE TENNESSEE Y HASTA LA PARTE BAJA DEL VALLE DE OHIO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DOS DIAS. CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 8 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN LA VECINDAD DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. TORNADOS AISLADOS PODRIAN OCURRIR SOBRE PARTES DEL SUR DE ALABAMA...EL SUROESTE DE GEORGIA...FLORIDA PANHANDLE Y EL NOROESTE DE LA FLORIDA HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 PM CDT...30.0 NORTE...87.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...991 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 4 PM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA/KNABB $$