** WTCA41 TJSJ 110603 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT SABADO 11 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...ARLENE CONTINUA HACIA EL NOROESTE HACIA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO CON POCOS CAMBIOS EN FORTALEZA... UN AVISO DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA PARTES DE LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DESDE PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI HACIA EL ESTE HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL HACIA EL ESTE HASTA EL OESTE DE PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...Y TAMBIEN DESDE EL ESTE DE DESTIN FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DESDE GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL...INCLUYENDO LA CUIDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... Y TAMBIEN DESDE INDIAN PASS FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO Y LAS AREAS DE TIERRA ADYACENTES DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LA 1 AM...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.5 NORTE... LONGITUD 86.6 OESTE O COMO A 190 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI Y A UNAS 210 MILLAS AL SUR-SURESTE DE PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL NOROESTE Y NORTE NOROESTE SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE ARLENE SE ESTARA ACERCANDO A LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO EL SABADO EN LA TARDE O DURANTE EL ANOCHECER. ARLENE SIGUE SIENDO UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL GRANDE...Y LA MAYOR PARTE DE SU LLUVIA Y VIENTOS ASOCIADOS LLEGARAN MUCHO ANTES QUE EL CENTRO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES...Y ESTOS VIENTOS ESTAN OCURRIENDO MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION ANTES DE TOCAR TIERRA...Y ARLENE PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA 1 MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 160 MILLAS...MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. UNA ESTACION DE LA NOOA AL SUR DE APALACHICOLA FLORIDA RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 39 MPH CON RAFAGAS DE 44 MPH. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES 989 MB...29.21 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE ARLENE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS A LO LARGO Y AL ESTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA A TRAVES DE LA FLORIDA...LAS APPALACHIANS DEL SURESTE...EL VALLE DE TENNESSEE Y EL VALLE DE OHIO. CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DEL ESTE DEL GOLFO. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...ACOMPANADAS DE GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. LOS NIVELES DE LAS AGUAS ACTUALMENTE ESTAN COMO A UN PIE SOBRE LA MAREA NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO. TORNADOS AISLADOS PODRIAN OCURRIR SOBRE PARTES DEL OESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DEL OESTE DE LA FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE Y EL SABADO EN LA MANANA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 AM CDT...27.5 NORTE...86.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 989 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTUS82 KTAE 110617 *** HLSTAE GMZ750-755-770-775-FLZ008-012-014-015-018-027-028-111000- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 213 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PASCAGOULA TO DESTIN... ...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FROM GRANDE ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE FLORIDA... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE INCLUDING WALTON...BAY...GULF... FRANKLIN...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...AND TAYLOR COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COASTAL COUNTIES EASTWARD TO STEINHATCHEE. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE ABOVE COASTAL COUNTIES...AS WELL AS LIBERTY...CALHOUN...JACKSON...WASHINGTON... HOLMES...AND INLAND WALTON COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 2 AM EDT...1 AM CDT...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 DEGREES NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6 DEGREES WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 989 MB...OR 29.21 INCHES. ARLENE WAS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL AND ARLENE COULD REACH CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALONG THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH COULD REACH THE PANHANDLE COAST...FROM ST. GEORGE ISLAND WESTWARD BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH OVER INLAND AREAS. THESE WINDS COULD BE HIGHER AND EXTEND FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE BIG BEND SHOULD ARLENE MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. WINDS GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME AREA WINDS AS OF 2 AM EDT ARE AS FOLLOWS. TALLAHASSEE...EAST AT 14 MPH. PANAMA CITY...EAST AT 13 MPH. APALACHICOLA...EAST AT 21 MPH. KEATON BEACH..EAST AT 21 MPH. CEDAR KEY...EAST AT 28 MPH GUSTING TO 33 MPH. C TOWER 100 FT ABOVE MSL...39 MPH GUSTING TO 43 MPH. APALACHICOLA BUOY...36 MPH GUSTING TO 45 MPH. PANAMA CITY BUOY...36 MPH GUSTING TO 47 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TO OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OR SO...A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY TO THE EAST...ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLE...MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... IF THE STORM FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...THE STORM SURGE WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTH WALTON BEACHES...AND 2 TO 4 FEET FURTHER EASTWARD ACROSS BAY...GULF AND WAKULLA COUNTIES. THE TAYLOR COUNTY COAST SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER STORM TIDES...OF 1 TO 2 FEET. SOME BEACH EROSION WILL OCCUR IN VULNERABLE LOCATIONS INCLUDING CAPE SAN BLAS DUE TO HEAVY WAVE ACTION. IF ARLENE INTENSIFIES AND MAKES LANDFALL FARTHER EAST IN THE WATCH AREA...THEN THE STORM SURGE COULD BE EVEN HIGHER...MAINLY FROM PANAMA CITY WESTWARD. CURRENTLY TIDES ARE RUNNING A FOOT OR LESS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST. NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND COULD ADD TO THE STORM TIDE LEVELS SPECIFIC TIDE FORECASTS FOLLOWS. ST MARKS... SATURDAY: HIGH 6:20 AM...LOW 11:11 AM...HIGH 4:51 PM EDT APALACHICOLA... SATURDAY: HIGH 9:26 AM...LOW 1:30 PM...HIGH 6:07 PM EDT PORT ST JOE... SATURDAY: HIGH 1:12 PM SUNDAY: LOW 12:13 AM EDT SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY... SATURDAY: HIGH 12:39 PM...LOW 11:53 PM CDT. SUNDAY: HIGH 1:10 PM CDT ...RIP CURRENTS... ONSHORE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TODAY. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS ARLENE APPROACHES THE GULF COAST. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AROUND 530 AM EDT (430 AM CDT) THIS MORNING. $$ 17-GOULD ** WTUS84 KLIX 110617 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-058-060>064-068>070-MSZ080>082-110930- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 115 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...ARLENE CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES IN LOUISIANA... JEFFERSON...LIVINGSTON...ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD... ST CHARLES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY AND TANGIPAHOA. IN ADDITION....THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR HANCOCK AND HARRISON COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 100 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ARLENE IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING... THOUGH THE EFFECTS OF ARLENE WILL BE FELT ON THE COAST MUCH EARLIER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL...AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE CONDITIONS INCLUDING...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS...75 MPH AND HIGHER...AND TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS. RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST SHOULD PREPARE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...40 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS AND NEAR TIDAL LAKES OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT A HALF FOOT TO ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...TIDES WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY EXCEPT 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OF JACKSON COUNTY. OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...TIDES WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE PROTECTION AREAS IN AREAS OF ST BERNARD... PLAQUEMINES AND EASTERN ORLEANS PARISHES. SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO OCCUR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND GRAND ISLE LATE TODAY. ...WIND IMPACTS.... EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HIGHER SHOULD AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND ESPECIALLY COASTAL MISSISSIPPI LATER TODAY. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...PRIMARILY IN GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE IN JACKSON COUNTY TODAY. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH TODAY. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 430 AM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KBMX 110625 *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017>050-111000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 100 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ARLENE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM...AND MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SECURE ALL LOOSE OBJECTS...SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS... OR MOVE THEM INDOORS. FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE A PROBLEM DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT...WHERE WATER CAN QUICKLY FLOOD ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED IN THE DARK. DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DEMOPOLIS TO SELMA TO MONTGOMERY TO PHENIX CITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ARLENE MAKES LANDFALL. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SUMTER...MARENGO AND DALLAS COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... OUTER RAIN BANDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FROM ARLENE WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. STORM TOTALS (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) MAY APPROACH 4 TO 8 INCHES. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER BLACK WARRIOR RIVER AND TOMBIGBEE RIVER...WITH RIVERS RISING TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE ON THE TALLAPOOSA...ALABAMA...AND CAHABA RIVERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 2 AM SATURDAY MORNING. && $$ ** WTIN20 DEMS 110630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 11-06-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER EAST. SOUTH WEST AND WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 21 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ????/ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 110600 UTC 00HR 36.3N 147.2E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR NE 70KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 110600UTC 36N 147E MOVE NE 30KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST = ** WTKO20 RKSL 110600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12 NAME EXTRATROPICAL LO 0504 NESAT ANALYSIS POSITION 110600UTC 36.0N 147.0E MOVEMENT NE 30KT PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTUS84 KBMX 110742 CCA *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017>050-111000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 100 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ARLENE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM...AND MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SECURE ALL LOOSE OBJECTS...SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS... OR MOVE THEM INDOORS. FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE A PROBLEM DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT...WHERE WATER CAN QUICKLY FLOOD ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED IN THE DARK. DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...MAINLY ALONG LOWNDES...DALLLAS...MARENGO...AND SUMTER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS ARLENE MAKES LANDFALL. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM CARROLLTON TO SELMA AND FORT DEPOSIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE... WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... OUTER RAIN BANDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FROM ARLENE WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. STORM TOTALS (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) MAY APPROACH 4 TO 8 INCHES. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER BLACK WARRIOR RIVER AND TOMBIGBEE RIVER...WITH RIVERS RISING TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE ON THE TALLAPOOSA...ALABAMA...AND CAHABA RIVERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 4 AM TODAY. && $$ ** WTUS84 KBMX 110743 CCB *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017>050-111000- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 100 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST...OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ARLENE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM...AND MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SECURE ALL LOOSE OBJECTS...SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS... OR MOVE THEM INDOORS. FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE A PROBLEM DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT...WHERE WATER CAN QUICKLY FLOOD ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED IN THE DARK. DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...MAINLY ALONG LOWNDES...DALLAS...MARENGO...AND SUMTER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS ARLENE MAKES LANDFALL. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM CARROLLTON TO SELMA AND FORT DEPOSIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE... WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... OUTER RAIN BANDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FROM ARLENE WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. STORM TOTALS (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) MAY APPROACH 4 TO 8 INCHES. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER BLACK WARRIOR RIVER AND TOMBIGBEE RIVER...WITH RIVERS RISING TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE ON THE TALLAPOOSA...ALABAMA...AND CAHABA RIVERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 4 AM TODAY. && $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 110836 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.5N 88.5W 37 2 X X 39 GULFPORT MS 50 X X X 50 35.5N 88.5W 3 29 3 X 35 BURAS LA 37 X X X 37 39.5N 86.5W X 1 23 X 24 NEW ORLEANS LA 23 X X X 23 ST MARKS FL 1 1 X X 2 NEW IBERIA LA 2 X X X 2 APALACHICOLA FL 7 1 X X 8 GULF 29N 85W 7 X X X 7 PANAMA CITY FL 22 X X X 22 GULF 29N 87W 99 X X X 99 PENSACOLA FL 55 X X X 55 GULF 28N 89W 31 X X X 31 MOBILE AL 57 X X X 57 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM SUN TO 1PM SUN C FROM 1PM SUN TO 1AM MON D FROM 1AM MON TO 1AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 110836 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...ARELENE BECOMES SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED...CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.....INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND ALSO FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA EASTWARD TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OR ARLENE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR ARLENE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. A NOAA AUTOMATED STATION SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE SOUTHEAST...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TODAY. REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...28.4 N... 87.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 110837 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005 0900Z SAT JUN 11 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.....INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND ALSO FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA EASTWARD TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 87.1W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..175NE 120SE 60SW 130NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 87.1W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 86.8W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.1N 88.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 75NE 45SE 20SW 45NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 32.5N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 35.5N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 39.5N 86.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 87.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 110838 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED...WITH NO NEW SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BURSTS TO REPLACE THE ONE THAT DISSIPATED JUST AFTER 00Z. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 69 KT WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 850 MB...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 MB. COMPARISON OF AIRCRAFT WINDS WITH BUOYS AND C-MAN STATIONS SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA SUGGESTS THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT BEING MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT THE NORMAL 70-80 PERCENT VALUES...AT LEAST AT THAT DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/16. ARLENE IS BEING STEERED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATING THE STORM SHOULD GRADUALLY RECURVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ARELENE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 12-18 HR. GRADUAL RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. THERE SEEM TO BE TWO POSSIBILITIES FOR THE INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL. THE FIRST IS THAT A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST DEVELOPS DURING THE UPCOMING DIURNAL MAXIMUM...AND ARLENE MAKES ANOTHER ATTEMPT TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...THE SECOND POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR ARLENE HAS BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THE STORM AND WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING THE REMAINING TIME BEFORE LANDFALL. IF THAT HAPPENS...ARLENE MAY WELL WEAKEN BEFORE LANDFALL. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE BEFORE IT BECOMES CLEAR WHICH POSSIBILITY IS OCCURRING. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT ARLENE WILL NOT BECOME A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 28.4N 87.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 30.1N 88.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 32.5N 88.5W 45 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 12/1800Z 35.5N 88.5W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 13/0600Z 39.5N 86.5W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 72HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 110842 *** TCVAT1 ARLENE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 .TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ALC003-097-FLC033-091-113-MSC059-GMZ555-575-630-650-655-670-675- 110900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1001.050611T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 PASCAGOULA-MS 30.35N 88.55W DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W $$ MSC045-047-110900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W PASCAGOULA-MS 30.35N 88.55W $$ FLC005-045-131-GMZ750-770-110900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W $$ LAC051-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-GMZ530-550-570-110900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 GRAND-ISLE-LA 29.25N 89.96W MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W $$ FLC037-065-123-129-GMZ750-755-770-775-110900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W $$ FLC005-045-131-110900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W $$ GMZ033-075-110900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W $$ ATTN...WFO...LIX...TAE...MOB...EYW... ** WTCA41 TJSJ 110855 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM CDT SABADO 11 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...ARLENE SE TORNA ALGO MENOS ORGANIZADA...CONTINUANDO NOROESTE HACIA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO... UN AVISO DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA PARTES DE LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DESDE PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI HACIA EL ESTE HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL HACIA EL ESTE HASTA EL OESTE DE PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...Y TAMBIEN DESDE EL ESTE DE DESTIN FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DESDE GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL...INCLUYENDO LA CUIDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... Y TAMBIEN DESDE INDIAN PASS FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO Y LAS AREAS DE TIERRA ADYACENTES DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LA 4 AM...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.4 NORTE... LONGITUD 87.1 OESTE O COMO A 130 MILLAS AL ESTE SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI Y A UNAS 170 MILLAS AL SUR-SURESTE DE MOBILE ALABAMA. ARLENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE Y AGLUNA DISMINUCION EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION SE ESPERA DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY.ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE TRAER EL CENTRO CERCA O SOBRE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE MUESTRAN QUE LA ACTIVIDAD DE TRONADAS ASOCIADAS CON ARLENE HA DISMINUIDO POR LAS PASADAS HORAS. SIN EMBARGO... EXISTE TODAVIA EL POTENCIAL DE ARLENE CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN ANTES DE TOCAR TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 160 MILLAS...MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. UNA ESTACION DE LA NOOA AL SUR DE APALACHICOLA FLORIDA RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 46 MPH CON RAFAGAS DE 69 MPH. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA RECIEN REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA ES 991 MB...29.26 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE ARLENE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS A LO LARGO Y AL ESTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA A TRAVES DE LA FLORIDA... EL SURESTE...EL VALLE DE TENNESSEE Y EL VALLE DE OHIO. CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DEL ESTE DEL GOLFO. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...ACOMPANADAS DE GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. LOS NIVELES DE LAS AGUAS ACTUALMENTE ESTAN COMO A UN PIE SOBRE LA MAREA NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO. TORNADOS AISLADOS PODRIAN OCURRIR SOBRE PARTES DEL SUR DE ALABAMA...SUROESTE DE GEORGIA...EL NOROESTE DE LA FLORIDA HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 4 AM CDT...28.4 NORTE...87.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 991 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTUS82 KTAE 110920 *** HLSTAE GMZ750-755-770-775-FLZ008-012-014-015-018-027-028-111230- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 513 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FROM DESTIN TO STEINHATCHEE FLORIDA... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE INCLUDING WALTON...BAY...GULF... FRANKLIN...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...AND TAYLOR COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COASTAL COUNTIES EASTWARD TO STEINHATCHEE. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE ABOVE COASTAL COUNTIES...AS WELL AS LIBERTY...CALHOUN...JACKSON...WASHINGTON... HOLMES...AND INLAND WALTON COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...4 AM CDT...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 DEGREES NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 DEGREES WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 991 MB...OR 29.26 INCHES. ARLENE WAS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL AND ARLENE COULD REACH CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALONG THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH COULD IMPACT THE PANHANDLE COAST...FROM ST. GEORGE ISLAND WESTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH OVER INLAND AREAS. THESE WINDS COULD BE HIGHER AND EXTEND FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE BIG BEND SHOULD ARLENE MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME AREA WINDS AS OF 5 AM EDT ARE AS FOLLOWS. TALLAHASSEE...EAST AT 17 MPH. PANAMA CITY...EAST AT 20 GUSTING TO 29 MPH. APALACHICOLA...EAST AT 18 GUSTING TO 32 MPH. KEATON BEACH..EAST AT 22 MPH. CEDAR KEY...EAST AT 28 MPH. C TOWER 100 FT ABOVE MSL...43 MPH GUSTING TO 47 MPH. APALACHICOLA BUOY...33 MPH GUSTING TO 42 MPH. PANAMA CITY BUOY...38 MPH GUSTING TO 47 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TO OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE...A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY TO THE EAST...ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLE...MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... IF THE STORM FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...THE STORM SURGE WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO 4 FEET ALONG THE SOUTH WALTON BEACHES...AND 1 TO 3 FEET FURTHER EASTWARD ACROSS BAY...GULF AND WAKULLA COUNTIES. THE TAYLOR COUNTY COAST SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER STORM TIDES...OF 1 TO 2 FEET. SOME BEACH EROSION WILL OCCUR IN VULNERABLE LOCATIONS INCLUDING CAPE SAN BLAS DUE TO BATTERING WAVES...WITH BREAKERS POSSIBLY REACHING 12 TO 15 FEET. NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND COULD ADD TO THE STORM TIDE LEVELS SPECIFIC TIDE FORECASTS FOLLOWS. ST MARKS... SATURDAY: HIGH 6:20 AM...LOW 11:11 AM...HIGH 4:51 PM EDT APALACHICOLA... SATURDAY: HIGH 9:26 AM...LOW 1:30 PM...HIGH 6:07 PM EDT PORT ST JOE... SATURDAY: HIGH 1:12 PM SUNDAY: LOW 12:13 AM EDT SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY... SATURDAY: HIGH 12:39 PM...LOW 11:53 PM CDT. SUNDAY: HIGH 1:10 PM CDT ...RIP CURRENTS... ONSHORE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TODAY. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBILE TODAY AS ARLENE APPROACHES THE GULF COAST. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHADLE...EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA UNTIL 5 PM EDT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AROUND 830 AM EDT (730 AM CDT) THIS MORNING. $$ 17-GOULD ** WTUS84 KLIX 110925 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-058-060>064-068>070-MSZ080>082-111230- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 425 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...ARLENE BECOMES SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED...CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES IN LOUISIANA... JEFFERSON...LIVINGSTON...ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD... ST CHARLES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY AND TANGIPAHOA. IN ADDITION....THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR HANCOCK AND HARRISON COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 400 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THOUGH THE EFFECTS OF ARLENE WILL BE FELT ON THE COAST MUCH EARLIER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE...AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE CONDITIONS INCLUDING...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS...75 MPH AND HIGHER...AND TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS. RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST SHOULD PREPARE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...40 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS AND NEAR TIDAL LAKES OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...TIDES WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OF JACKSON COUNTY. OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...TIDES WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE PROTECTION AREAS IN AREAS OF ST BERNARD... PLAQUEMINES AND EASTERN ORLEANS PARISHES. SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO OCCUR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND GRAND ISLE LATE TODAY. ...WIND IMPACTS.... EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HIGHER SHOULD AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA LATER TODAY. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...PRIMARILY IN GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE IN JACKSON COUNTY. ...RAINFALL... VERY HEAVY RAIN IN SQUALLS WILL LIKELY IMPACT JACKSON COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING WITH LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND 2 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER HANCOCK AND HARRISON COUNTIES IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH TODAY. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 730 AM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KBMX 110930 CCA *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017>050-111300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OR ARLENE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ARLENE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM...AND MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SECURE ALL LOOSE OBJECTS...SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS... OR MOVE THEM INDOORS. FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE A PROBLEM DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT...WHERE WATER CAN QUICKLY FLOOD ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED IN THE DARK. DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...MAINLY ALONG LOWNDES...DALLAS...MARENGO...AND SUMTER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS ARLENE MAKES LANDFALL. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM CARROLLTON TO SELMA AND FORT DEPOSIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE... WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... OUTER RAIN BANDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FROM ARLENE WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. STORM TOTALS (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) MAY APPROACH 4 TO 8 INCHES. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER BLACK WARRIOR RIVER AND TOMBIGBEE RIVER...WITH RIVERS RISING TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE ON THE TALLAPOOSA...ALABAMA...AND CAHABA RIVERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 7 AM TODAY. && $$ ** WTUS84 KBMX 110939 *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017>050-111300- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OR ARLENE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ARLENE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM...AND MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SECURE ALL LOOSE OBJECTS...SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS... OR MOVE THEM INDOORS. FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE A PROBLEM DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT...WHERE WATER CAN QUICKLY FLOOD ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED IN THE DARK. DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...MAINLY ALONG LOWNDES...DALLAS...MARENGO...AND SUMTER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS ARLENE MAKES LANDFALL. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM CARROLLTON TO SELMA AND FORT DEPOSIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE... WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... OUTER RAIN BANDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FROM ARLENE WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. STORM TOTALS (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) MAY APPROACH 4 TO 8 INCHES. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER BLACK WARRIOR RIVER AND TOMBIGBEE RIVER...WITH RIVERS RISING TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE ON THE TALLAPOOSA...ALABAMA...AND CAHABA RIVERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 7 AM TODAY. && $$ ** WTUS84 KMOB 110959 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-111615- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 500 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO DESTIN FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN BALDWIN...MOBILE...WASHINGTON...CHOCTAW...WILCOX...MONROE... CLARKE...CONECUH...BUTLER...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA AND COVINGTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. FOR ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. FOR STONE...GEORGE... GREENE...PERRY AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND PORTIONS OF BALDWIN AND MOBILE IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 991 MB...OR 29.26 INCHES. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE NEAR THE ALABAMA COASTLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE 3 AM CDT...INDICATES A BURST OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE STORM CENTER. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR ARLENE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE RECOMMENDED EVACUATIONS OF ALL LOW LYING AREAS. ANYONE LIVING IN MOBILE HOMES...MANUFACTURED HOMES...TRAVEL TRAILERS OR FEMA GROUP SITES SHOULD ALSO EVACUATE. ALSO...EVACUATION OF SOME LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS SUCH AS BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS DIRECTLY ON THE GULF IS BEING RECOMMENDED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. LISTEN TO LOCAL TV OR RADIO FOR DETAILS ON AREAS AFFECTED OR FOR INFORMATION ON SHELTERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 3.5 TO 5.5 FEET IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINES TODAY. THIS WILL FLOOD SOME HOMES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE ELEVATION IS LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND ON SOME INLAND BAYS AND WATERWAYS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF NEAR 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO NEAR 75 MPH BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE INLAND COUNTIES BY NOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH DUE TO INCREASING HIGH SURF AND STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING...SURFING AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL ARLENE MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE NIGHT. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR NORTH AND EAST OF ARLENE'S PATH. AS A RESULT...THE ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG AREA RIVERS NEED TO MONITOR ARLENE'S EXACT PATH AS WELL AS WIND INTENSITY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND SHOULD RIVER FLOODING DEVELOP. ...TORNADO THREAT... LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO STRENGTHEN SINCE MIDNIGHT. THIS HAS INCREASED THE TORNADO THREAT. AS A RESULT...A TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 4 PM CDT . ...NEW INFORMATION... SHORT TERM FORECASTS (BHMNOWMOB) ARE BEING ISSUED HOURLY AND THESE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE AS SHE MOVES ACROSS THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 1100 AM CDT THIS MORNING. $$ MEDLIN ** WTNT31 KNHC 111137 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...ARLENE CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.....INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND ALSO FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA EASTWARD TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR ARLENE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE SOUTHEAST...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TODAY. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...29.0 N... 87.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 111152 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-058-060>064-068>070-MSZ080>082-111530- TROPICAL STORM****HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 655 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...ARLENE CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES IN LOUISIANA... JEFFERSON...LIVINGSTON...ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD... ST CHARLES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY AND TANGIPAHOA. IN ADDITION....THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR HANCOCK AND HARRISON COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 600 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...THOUGH THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE COAST THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE...AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE CONDITIONS INCLUDING...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS...75 MPH AND HIGHER...AND TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS. RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST SHOULD PREPARE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...40 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS AND NEAR TIDAL LAKES OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...TIDES WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OF JACKSON COUNTY. OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...TIDES WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE PROTECTION AREAS IN AREAS OF ST BERNARD... PLAQUEMINES AND EASTERN ORLEANS PARISHES. SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO OCCUR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND GRAND ISLE LATER TODAY. ...WIND IMPACTS.... NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HIGHER SHOULD AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA LATER TODAY. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THIS MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...PRIMARILY IN GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE IN JACKSON COUNTY. ...RAINFALL... VERY HEAVY RAIN IN SQUALLS WILL LIKELY IMPACT JACKSON COUNTY THIS MORNING WITH LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER HANCOCK AND HARRISON COUNTIES IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH TODAY. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1030 AM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 111152 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-058-060>064-068>070-MSZ080>082-111530- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 655 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...ARLENE CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES IN LOUISIANA... JEFFERSON...LIVINGSTON...ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD... ST CHARLES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY AND TANGIPAHOA. IN ADDITION....THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR HANCOCK AND HARRISON COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 600 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...THOUGH THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE COAST THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE...AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE CONDITIONS INCLUDING...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS...75 MPH AND HIGHER...AND TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS. RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST SHOULD PREPARE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...40 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS AND NEAR TIDAL LAKES OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...TIDES WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OF JACKSON COUNTY. OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...TIDES WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE PROTECTION AREAS IN AREAS OF ST BERNARD... PLAQUEMINES AND EASTERN ORLEANS PARISHES. SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO OCCUR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND GRAND ISLE LATER TODAY. ...WIND IMPACTS.... NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HIGHER SHOULD AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA LATER TODAY. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THIS MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...PRIMARILY IN GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE IN JACKSON COUNTY. ...RAINFALL... VERY HEAVY RAIN IN SQUALLS WILL LIKELY IMPACT JACKSON COUNTY THIS MORNING WITH LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER HANCOCK AND HARRISON COUNTIES IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH TODAY. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1030 AM CDT. $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 111154 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 12A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 AM CDT SABADO 11 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...ARLENE CONTINUA HACIA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO COMO UNA FUERTE TORMENTA TROPICAL... UN AVISO DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA PARTES DE LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DESDE PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI HACIA EL ESTE HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL HACIA EL ESTE HASTA EL OESTE DE PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...Y TAMBIEN DESDE EL ESTE DE DESTIN FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DESDE GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL...INCLUYENDO LA CUIDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... Y TAMBIEN DESDE INDIAN PASS FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO Y LAS AREAS DE TIERRA ADYACENTES DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 7 AM CDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE FUE LOCALIZADO POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.0 NORTE... LONGITUD 87.2 OESTE O COMO A 115 MILLAS AL ESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI Y A UNAS 105 MILLAS AL SUR-SURESTE DE MOBILE ALABAMA. ARLENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE TRAER EL CENTRO CERCA O SOBRE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EXISTE TODAVIA EL POTENCIAL DE ARLENE CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN ANTES DE TOCAR TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 160 MILLAS...MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA RECIEN REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA ES 990 MB...29.23 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE ARLENE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS A LO LARGO Y AL ESTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA A TRAVES DE LA FLORIDA... EL SURESTE...EL VALLE DE TENNESSEE Y EL VALLE DE OHIO. CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DEL ESTE DEL GOLFO. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...ACOMPANADAS DE GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. LOS NIVELES DE LAS AGUAS ACTUALMENTE ESTAN COMO A UN PIE SOBRE LA MAREA NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO. TORNADOS AISLADOS PODRIAN OCURRIR SOBRE PARTES DEL SUR DE ALABAMA...SUROESTE DE GEORGIA...EL NOROESTE DE LA FLORIDA HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 7 AM CDT...29.0 NORTE...87.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 991 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA/KNABB $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 111158 CCA *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-058-060>064-068>070-MSZ080>082-111530- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED TIME NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 700 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...ARLENE CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES IN LOUISIANA... JEFFERSON...LIVINGSTON...ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD... ST CHARLES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY AND TANGIPAHOA. IN ADDITION....THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR HANCOCK AND HARRISON COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 700 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...THOUGH THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE COAST THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE...AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE CONDITIONS INCLUDING...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS...75 MPH AND HIGHER...AND TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS. RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST SHOULD PREPARE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...40 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS AND NEAR TIDAL LAKES OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...TIDES WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OF JACKSON COUNTY. OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...TIDES WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE PROTECTION AREAS IN AREAS OF ST BERNARD... PLAQUEMINES AND EASTERN ORLEANS PARISHES. SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO OCCUR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND GRAND ISLE LATER TODAY. ...WIND IMPACTS.... NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HIGHER SHOULD AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA LATER TODAY. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THIS MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...PRIMARILY IN GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE IN JACKSON COUNTY. ...RAINFALL... VERY HEAVY RAIN IN SQUALLS WILL LIKELY IMPACT JACKSON COUNTY THIS MORNING WITH LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 5 INCHES. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER HANCOCK AND HARRISON COUNTIES IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH TODAY. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1030 AM CDT. $$