** WTSR20 WSSS 101800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KEYW 110009 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ075-110330- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 830 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH 11 PM... ...CONDITIONS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY SATURDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 11 PM. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 275 MILES NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST. ARLENE IS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...OR 29.29 INCHES OF MERCURY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK REMAINS CLOSED TONIGHT...BUT WILL OPEN SATURDAY MORNING. UTILITIES COMPANIES REPORT NO SIGNIFICANT POWER OUTAGES IN THE KEYS AT THIS TIME. THE KEY WEST AIRPORT REMAINS OPEN. GREYHOUND BUS LINES CONTINUES TO OPERATE. THE POWERBOAT RACES WILL PROCEED AS SCHEDULED ON SATURDAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL STORM. ...MARINE IMPACTS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FEET WILL CONTINUE IN THE ATLANTIC FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST. 10 TO 14 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST. SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS WILL CONTINUE UP TO 10 FEET. SEAS OVER ALL WATERS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY EARLY SATURDAY. MARINERS SHOULD LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE TORNADO WATCH ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11PM. TORNADOS EMBEDDED IN RAINBANDS WILL REMAIN A RISK THROUGH THE WATCH PERIOD. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH SQUALLS TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND IMPROVE EARLY SATURDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN RAINBANDS AND SQUALLS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE LOWER KEYS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY SATURDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE RUNNING ONE HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT KEY WEST. TIDES ARE NEAR NORMAL FURTHER UP THE FLORIDA KEYS. MINOR OVERWASH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED ROADWAYS ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE KEYS TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1130 PM EDT. $$ FELTGEN ** WTUS84 KBMX 110031 *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017>050-110359- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 718 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 700 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST....OR ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE IS MOVING NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SECURE ALL LOOSE OBJECTS...SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS... OR MOVE THEM INDOORS. FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE A PROBLEM DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT...WHERE WATER CAN QUICKLY FLOOD ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED IN THE DARK. DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DEMOPOLIS TO SELMA TO MONTGOMERY TO PHENIX CITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ARLENE MAKES LANDFALL. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SUMTER...MARENGO AND DALLAS COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... OUTER RAIN BANDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FROM ARLENE WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. STORM TOTALS (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) MAY APPROACH 4 TO 8 INCHES. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER BLACK WARRIOR RIVER...WITH RIVERS RISING TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE ON THE TALLAPOOSA...ALABAMA...AND CAHABA RIVERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 11 PM CDT TONIGHT. && $$ ** WTUS82 KTAE 110031 *** HLSTAE GMZ750-755-770-775-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-110400- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 800 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FROM GRANDE ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE INCLUDING WALTON...BAY...GULF... FRANKLIN...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...AND TAYLOR COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COASTAL COUNTIES EASTWARD TO STEINHATCHEE. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 8 PM EDT...7 PM CDT...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 DEGREES NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 DEGREES WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE WAS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI COAST TO PENSACOLA EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT INCLEMENT WEATHER...IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS...WILL OCCUR TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALONG THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH COULD REACH THE PANHANDLE COAST...FROM ST. GEORGE ISLAND WESTWARD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS COULD BE HIGHER AND EXTEND FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE BIG BEND SHOULD ARLENE STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TO OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OR SO...A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY TO THE EAST...ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLE...MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED 7 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... IF THE STORM FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...THE STORM SURGE WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTH WALTON BEACHES...AND 2 TO 4 FEET FURTHER EASTWARD ACROSS BAY...GULF AND WAKULLA COUNTIES. THE TAYLOR COUNTY COAST SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER STORM TIDES...OF 1 TO 2 FEET. SOME BEACH EROSION WILL OCCUR IN VULNERABLE LOCATIONS INCLUDING CAPE SAN BLAS DUE TO HEAVY WAVE ACTION. IF ARLENE INTENSIFIES AND MAKES LANDFALL FARTHER EAST IN THE WATCH AREA...THEN THE STORM SURGE COULD BE EVEN HIGHER...MAINLY FROM PANAMA CITY WESTWARD. CURRENTLY TIDES ARE RUNNING A FOOT OR LESS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST. NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND COULD ADD TO THE STORM TIDE LEVELS SPECIFIC TIDE FORECASTS FOLLOWS... ST MARKS... TONIGHT: LOW 11:44 PM SATURDAY: HIGH 6:20 AM...LOW 11:11 AM EDT APALACHICOLA... TONIGHT: 5:16 PM EDT SATURDAY: LOW 1:46 AM EDT...HIGH 9:26 AM EDT...LOW 1:30 PM EDT PORT ST JOE... TONIGHT: LOW 11:53 PM SATURDAY: HIGH 1:12 PM SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY... TODAY: HIGH 12:08 PM...LOW 11:33 PM. SATURDAY: HIGH 12:39 PM...LOW 11:53 PM. ...RIP CURRENTS... ONSHORE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE A POSSIBILITY BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY AS ARLENE APPROACHES THE GULF COAST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE NEAR COMPLETION WITH THE APPROACH OF ARLENE IMMINENT. STORE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS OR YARD FURNITURE. POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR DUE TO STRONG WIND GUSTS. STOCK UP ON BATTERIES...FLASHLIGHTS... WATER...AND NON-PERISHABLE FOOD. HAVE CASH ON HAND...AS CREDIT CARDS AND ATM MACHINES MAY NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER. BOATS SHOULD BE MOVED TO A SAFE LOCATION OR SECURED PROPERLY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AROUND 1130 PM EDT (1030 PM CDT) THIS EVENING. $$ 17-GOULD ** WTCA41 TJSJ 110035 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 10A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT VIERNES 10 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...ARLENE TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE HACIA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO...PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN PARA EL SABADO... UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN CONTINUA EN EFECTO DESDE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA HASTA STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO LA CUIDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA DRY TORTUGAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO Y LAS AREAS DE TIERRA ADYACENTES DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA A SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.4 NORTE... LONGITUD 85.6 OESTE O COMO A 280 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI Y A UNAS 295 MILLAS AL SUR-SURESTE DE PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE AHORA SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE ARLENE SE ESTARA ACERCANDO A LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL SABADO. ARLENE ES UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL GRANDE...Y LA MAYOR PARTE DE SU LLUVIA Y VIENTOS ASOCIADOS LLEGARAN MUCHO ANTES QUE EL CENTRO. LOS DATOS RECIENTES DE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE NOAA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS AHORA HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 70 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES...Y ESTOS VIENTOS ESTAN OCURRIENDO MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y ARLENE PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN ESTA NOCHE O EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 150 MILLAS...MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA FUE DE 992 MB...29.29 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA LLUVIA FUERTE ASOCIADA CON ARLENE CONTINUE A TRAVES DEL CENTRO Y OESTE DE CUBA Y LA MAYOR PARTE DE LA FLORIDA. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 3 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE ESTAS REGIONES...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE HASTA 7 PULGADAS. LLUVIA FUERTE ASOCIADA CON ARLENE CONTINUARA EXTENDIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LAS APPALACHIANS DEL SURESTE Y SUR...EL VALLE DE TENNESSEE Y EL VALLE DE OHIO DURANTE EL ANOCHECER HASTA EL FIN DE SEMANA. SE ESPERAN TOTALES DE PRECIPITACION DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS A LO LARGO Y AL ESTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE ARLENE...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS A LO LARGO DE LOS ESTADOS COSTEROS DEL GOLFO CENTRAL Y DEL ESTE. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...ACOMPANADAS DE GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. LOS NIVELES DE LAS AGUAS ACTUALMENTE ESTAN COMO A MEDIO PIE SOBRE LA MAREA NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO. TORNADOS AISLADOS PODRIAN OCURRIR SOBRE PARTES DEL SUR Y OESTE-CENTRAL DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...26.4 NORTE...85.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 992 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTUS84 KMOB 110036 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-110400- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 730 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST AND STRENGTHENING A LITTLE... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA... ...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...THIS INCLUDES ALL OF THE ALABAMA COAST AS WELL AS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 700 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH. THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL APPROACH THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINES ON SATURDAY...WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SUBJECT TO FLOODING SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE RECOMMENDED EVACUATIONS OF ALL LOW LYING AREAS. ANYONE LIVING IN MOBILE HOMES...MANUFACTURED HOMES...TRAVEL TRAILERS OR FEMA GROUP SITES SHOULD ALSO EVACUATE. ALSO...EVACUATION OF SOME LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS SUCH AS BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS DIRECTLY ON THE GULF IS BEING RECOMMENDED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. LISTEN TO LOCAL TV OR RADIO FOR DETAILS ON AREAS AFFECTED OR FOR INFORMATION ON SHELTERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL FLOOD SOME HOMES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE ELEVATION IS LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND ON SOME INLAND BAYS AND WATERWAYS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY TO NEAR 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE INLAND COUNTIES AROUND NOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ARLENE COULD BECOME A WEAK CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE WITH WINDS NEAR 75 MPH. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH DUE TO INCREASING HIGH SURF AND STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING...SURFING...AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL ARLENE MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR NORTH AND EAST OF ARLENE'S PATH. AS A RESULT...THE ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG AREA RIVERS NEED TO MONITOR ARLENE'S EXACT PATH AS WELL AS WIND INTENSITY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND SHOULD RIVER FLOODING DEVELOP. ...TORNADO THREAT... AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO ARLENE'S DEVELOPMENT AND APPROACH. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT OVER THE REGION AND WILL REMAIN AT A SOMEWHAT ELEVATED LEVEL UNTIL ARLENE MAKES LANDFALL AND MOVES WELL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 11 PM CDT TONIGHT. $$ BEELER ** WTJP21 RJTD 110000 *** WARNING 110000. WARNING VALID 120000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0504 NESAT (0504) 994 HPA AT 34.2N 144.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 27 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 39.6N 150.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 43.1N 155.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 110000UTC 34.2N 144.6E FAIR MOVE NE 27KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 120000UTC 43.1N 155.8E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS84 KLIX 110048 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-058-060>064-068>070-MSZ080>082-110330- TROPICAL STORM****HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 738 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FROM GRAND ISLE EAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES IN LOUISIANA... JEFFERSON...LIVINGSTON...ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD... ST CHARLES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY AND TANGIPAHOA IN ADDITION....THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 700 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ARLENE IS MOVING JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SHOULD PREPARE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...WIND TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...40 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS AND NEAR TIDAL LAKES SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING A HALF A FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...AS TROPICAL STORM ARLENE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...TIDE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RUN 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MISSISSIPPI COAST. LOCALLY HIGHER TIDES MAY OCCUR ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. THE GREATEST THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...AND AREAS OF ST BERNARD... PLAQUEMINES AND ORLEANS PARISHES OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES. SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO OCCUR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND GRAND ISLE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS.... EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 MPH AND HIGHER MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT LOWER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND ESPECIALLY COASTAL MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY... DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF ARLENE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING TONIGHT... WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1030 PM CDT. $$ ** WTPQ30 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.23 FOR TS 0504 NESAT (0504) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 110000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEN MOVE TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 6 HOURS. 5.REMARKS THIS IS FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING ON TS 0504 NESAT (0504).= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 110000 UTC 00HR 34.3N 142.6E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NE 50KM/H= ** WTKO20 RKSL 110000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11 NAME TS 0504 NESAT ANALYSIS POSITION 110000UTC 34.2N 144.6E MOVEMENT NE 27KT PRES/VMAX 994HPA 35KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 111200UTC 38.1N 149.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 998HPA 33KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT21 KNHC 110250 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005 0300Z SAT JUN 11 2005 AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.....INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND ALSO FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA EASTWARD TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 86.1W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 0SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 50SW 130NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 86.1W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 85.6W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.7N 87.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 75NE 45SE 20SW 45NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.0N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 85NE 120SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 33.5N 88.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 37.0N 87.6W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 86.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 110251 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.0N 88.0W 37 X X X 37 GULFPORT MS 33 X X X 33 33.5N 88.0W 8 21 2 X 31 BURAS LA 24 1 X X 25 37.0N 87.6W X 6 19 X 25 NEW ORLEANS LA 17 2 X X 19 ST MARKS FL 5 4 X X 9 NEW IBERIA LA 2 2 X X 4 APALACHICOLA FL 18 1 X X 19 GULF 29N 85W 24 X 1 X 25 PANAMA CITY FL 27 1 X X 28 GULF 29N 87W 64 X X X 64 PENSACOLA FL 41 X X X 41 GULF 28N 89W 20 X X X 20 MOBILE AL 39 X X X 39 GULF 28N 91W 1 1 X X 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM SAT TO 7AM SUN C FROM 7AM SUN TO 7PM SUN D FROM 7PM SUN TO 7PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 110303 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...ARLENE SLOWS A LITTLE AS IT TURNS NORTHWESTWARD... AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.....INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND ALSO FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA EASTWARD TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 245 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION...ALONG WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ARLENE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM...AND MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES ...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK ACROSS FLORIDA...THE SOUTHEAST...THE APPALACHIANS...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND THE OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...27.1 N... 86.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 110314 *** TCVAT1 ARLENE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 .TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ALC003-097-FLC033-091-113-MSC059-GMZ555-575-630-650-655-670-675- 110900- /E.CAN.KNHC.HU.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.W.1001.050611T0300Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 PASCAGOULA-MS 30.35N 88.55W DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W $$ MSC045-047-110900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W PASCAGOULA-MS 30.35N 88.55W $$ FLC005-045-131-GMZ750-770-110900- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W $$ LAC051-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-GMZ530-550-570-110900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 GRAND-ISLE-LA 29.25N 89.96W MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W $$ FLC037-065-123-129-GMZ750-755-770-775-110900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W $$ FLC005-045-131-110900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 DESTIN-FL 30.39N 86.50W INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W $$ GMZ033-075-110900- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W $$ ATTN...WFO...LIX...TAE...MOB...EYW... ** WTUS84 KBMX 110318 *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017>050-110659- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1016 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 245 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE IS MOVING NORTH- NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SECURE ALL LOOSE OBJECTS...SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS... OR MOVE THEM INDOORS. FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE A PROBLEM DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT...WHERE WATER CAN QUICKLY FLOOD ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED IN THE DARK. DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DEMOPOLIS TO SELMA TO MONTGOMERY TO PHENIX CITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ARLENE MAKES LANDFALL. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SUMTER...MARENGO AND DALLAS COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... OUTER RAIN BANDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FROM ARLENE WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. STORM TOTALS (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) MAY APPROACH 4 TO 8 INCHES. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER BLACK WARRIOR RIVER AND TOMBIGBEE RIVER...WITH RIVERS RISING TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE ON THE TALLAPOOSA...ALABAMA...AND CAHABA RIVERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 2 AM SATURDAY MORNING. && $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 110319 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 LAST MINUTE INFORMATION FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER REQUIRED SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WORKING FORECAST TRACK. RECON FOUND A PRESSURE OF 989 MB IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A NEW BUT STRONGER LOW-LEVEL VORTEX THAT DEVELOPED BENEATH A DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST THAT HAS BEEN ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE EAST AND NORTH SIDE OF THE LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE. I AM NOT READY TO KEY IN ON THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF THAT CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS...SO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION OF 330/14 IS A LONGER TERM BLEND OF RECON AND SATELLITE POSITIONS AND MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS BASED ON 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 75 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUAD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION... AND SUBSEQUENT TRACKS MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST IF THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TREND CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...MY FEELING IS THAT SOME SIGNIFICANT WOBBLING WILL OCCUR ALONG A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR AND OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR ERODING THE DEEP CONVECTION AND CAUSING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO CONSTANTLY REFORM NEAR NEW CONVECTIVE BURSTS. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. TIMING THE VARIOUS CONVECTIVE BURSTS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. HOWEVER ...ARLENE WILL BE GOING INTO THE CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...SO SOME NEW DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND POSSIBLY ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS ARLENE APPROACHES THE GULF COAST...SO SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 27.1N 86.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 28.7N 87.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 31.0N 88.0W 55 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 12/1200Z 33.5N 88.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 48HR VT 13/0000Z 37.0N 87.6W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 72HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 110324 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ075-110800- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1130 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS IS DISCONTINUED... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH 8 AM... ...CONDITIONS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED WATCH AND WARNINGS. UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED TORNADO IMPACT. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS IS DISCONTINUED. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 325 MILES NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST. ARLENE IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. ON THIS TRACK...ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...OR 29.21 INCHES OF MERCURY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE DRY TORTUGAS WILL OPEN SATURDAY MORNING. UTILITY COMPANIES REPORT NO SIGNIFICANT POWER OUTAGES IN THE KEYS AT THIS TIME. THE KEY WEST AIRPORT AND GREYHOUND BUS LINES ARE OPERATIONAL. THE POWERBOAT RACES WILL PROCEED AS SCHEDULED ON SATURDAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL STORM. ...MARINE IMPACTS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET WILL CONTINUE IN THE ATLANTIC FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST. 10 TO 14 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST. SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS WILL CONTINUE UP TO 10 FEET. SEAS OVER ALL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY ON SATURDAY. MARINERS SHOULD LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE TORNADO WATCH ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY. TORNADOS EMBEDDED IN RAINBANDS WILL REMAIN A RISK THROUGH THE WATCH PERIOD. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN SQUALLS...AND TO 45 KNOTS OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND IMPROVE SATURDAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN RAINBANDS AND SQUALLS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE LOWER KEYS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... NO STORM SURGE OR STORM TIDE FLOODING IS EXPECTED. MINOR OVERWASH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG EXPOSED ROADWAYS ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE KEYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS IS THE LAST TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING TROPICAL STORM ARLENE TO BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST. $$ FELTGEN ** WTUS82 KTAE 110326 *** HLSTAE GMZ750-755-770-775-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-110700- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1123 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PASCAGOULA TO DESTIN... ...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FROM GRANDE ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE INCLUDING WALTON...BAY...GULF... FRANKLIN...WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...AND TAYLOR COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COASTAL COUNTIES EASTWARD TO STEINHATCHEE. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...10 PM CDT...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 DEGREES NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 DEGREES WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 989 MB...OR 29.21 INCHES. ARLENE WAS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AND ARLENE COULD REACH CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI COAST TO PENSACOLA EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT INCLEMENT WEATHER...IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS...WILL OCCUR TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ...WIND IMPACTS... ALONG THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH COULD REACH THE PANHANDLE COAST...FROM ST. GEORGE ISLAND WESTWARD BY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS COULD BE HIGHER AND EXTEND FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE BIG BEND SHOULD ARLENE MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. WINDS GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE BUOYS 60 TO 70 NM OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME AREA WINDS AS OF 11 PM EDT ARE AS FOLLOWS: TALLAHASSEE: EAST AT 12 MPH. PANAMA CITY: EAST AT 16 MPH. APALACHICOLA: NORTHEAST AT 14 MPH. KEATON BEACH: NORTHEAST AT 16 MPH. CEDAR KEY: EAST AT 25 MPH. C TOWER 100 FT ABOVE MSL: 38 MPH GUSTING TO 42 MPH. APALACHICOLA BUOY: 33 MPH GUSTING TO 47 MPH. PANAMA CITY BUOY: 36 MPH GUSTING TO 43 MPH. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TO OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OR SO...A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY TO THE EAST...ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLE...MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED 10 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... IF THE STORM FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...THE STORM SURGE WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTH WALTON BEACHES...AND 2 TO 4 FEET FURTHER EASTWARD ACROSS BAY...GULF AND WAKULLA COUNTIES. THE TAYLOR COUNTY COAST SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER STORM TIDES...OF 1 TO 2 FEET. SOME BEACH EROSION WILL OCCUR IN VULNERABLE LOCATIONS INCLUDING CAPE SAN BLAS DUE TO HEAVY WAVE ACTION. IF ARLENE INTENSIFIES AND MAKES LANDFALL FARTHER EAST IN THE WATCH AREA...THEN THE STORM SURGE COULD BE EVEN HIGHER...MAINLY FROM PANAMA CITY WESTWARD. CURRENTLY TIDES ARE RUNNING A FOOT OR LESS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST. NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND COULD ADD TO THE STORM TIDE LEVELS SPECIFIC TIDE FORECASTS FOLLOWS... ST MARKS... TONIGHT: LOW 11:44 PM SATURDAY: HIGH 6:20 AM...LOW 11:11 AM EDT APALACHICOLA... SATURDAY: LOW 1:46 AM EDT...HIGH 9:26 AM EDT...LOW 1:30 PM EDT PORT ST JOE... TONIGHT: LOW 11:53 PM SATURDAY: HIGH 1:12 PM SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY... TODAY: LOW 11:33 PM. SATURDAY: HIGH 12:39 PM...LOW 11:53 PM. ...RIP CURRENTS... ONSHORE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS ARLENE APPROACHES THE GULF COAST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE NEAR COMPLETION WITH THE APPROACH OF ARLENE IMMINENT. STORE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS OR YARD FURNITURE. POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR DUE TO STRONG WIND GUSTS. STOCK UP ON BATTERIES...FLASHLIGHTS... WATER...AND NON-PERISHABLE FOOD. HAVE CASH ON HAND...AS CREDIT CARDS AND ATM MACHINES MAY NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER. BOATS SHOULD BE MOVED TO A SAFE LOCATION OR SECURED PROPERLY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AROUND 230 AM EDT (130 AM CDT) THIS MORNING. $$ 17-GOULD ** WTUS84 KLIX 110334 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-058-060>064-068>070-MSZ080>082-110645- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1032 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE MOVING NORTHWEST AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES IN LOUISIANA... JEFFERSON...LIVINGSTON...ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD... ST CHARLES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY AND TANGIPAHOA. IN ADDITION....THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR HANCOCK AND HARRISON COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1000 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ARLENE IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THOUGH THE EFFECTS OF ARLENE WILL BE FELT ON THE COAST MUCH EARLIER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ARLENE COULD REACH CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE CONDITIONS INCLUDING...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS...75 MPH AND HIGHER...AND TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS. RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST SHOULD PREPARE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...40 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS AND NEAR TIDAL LAKES OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING A HALF A FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...TIDES WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY EXCEPT 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OF JACKSON COUNTY. OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...TIDES WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE PROTECTION AREAS IN AREAS OF ST BERNARD...PLAQUEMINES AND EASTERN ORLEANS PARISHES. SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO OCCUR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND GRAND ISLE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS.... EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HIGHER SHOULD AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND ESPECIALLY COASTAL MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...PRIMARILY IN GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE IN JACKSON COUNTY ON SATURDAY. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEW INFORMATION... HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130 AM CDT. $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 110337 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM CDT VIERNES 10 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...ARLENE DISMINUYE UN POCO SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MIENTRAS GIRA HACIA EL NOROESTE... A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...SE HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA PARTES DE LA COSTA NORTE CENTRAL DEL GOLFO DESDE PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI HACIA EL ESTE HASTA DESTIN FLORIDA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE HURACAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUAN EN EFECTO DESDE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL HACIA EL ESTE HASTA EL OESTE DE PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...Y TAMBIEN DESDE EL ESTE DE DESTIN FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DESDE GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA HASTA LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL...INCLUYENDO LA CUIDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... Y TAMBIEN DESDE INDIAN PASS FLORIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. A LAS 10 PM CDT...0300Z...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA DRY TORTUGAS HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL AREA EN EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO Y LAS AREAS DE TIERRA ADYACENTES DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 10 PM...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 27.1 NORTE... LONGITUD 86.1 OESTE O COMO A 230 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI Y A UNAS 245 MILLAS AL SUR-SURESTE DE PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL...CON ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION...CONTINUE HASTA QUE ENTRE A TIERRA. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE ARLENE SE ESTARA ACERCANDO A LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO EL SABADO EN LA TARDE O DURANTE EL ANOCHECER. ARLENE SIGUE SIENDO UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL GRANDE...Y LA MAYOR PARTE DE SU LLUVIA Y VIENTOS ASOCIADOS LLEGARAN MUCHO ANTES QUE EL CENTRO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES...Y ESTOS VIENTOS ESTAN OCURRIENDO MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 18 HORAS...Y ARLENE PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA 1 EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 160 MILLAS...MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE NOAA FUE DE 989 MB...29.21 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE ARLENE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS A LO LARGO Y AL ESTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA A TRAVES DE LA FLORIDA...LAS APPALACHIANS DEL SURESTE...EL VALLE DE TENNESSEE Y EL VALLE DE OHIO. CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA DEL ESTE DEL GOLFO. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR INUNDACIONES COSTERAS POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 3 A 5 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA...ACOMPANADAS DE GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO ENTRE A TIERRA. LOS NIVELES DE LAS AGUAS ACTUALMENTE ESTAN COMO A UN PIE SOBRE LA MAREA NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO. TORNADOS AISLADOS PODRIAN OCURRIR SOBRE PARTES DEL OESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DEL OESTE DE LA FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE Y EL SABADO EN LA MANANA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM CDT...27.1 NORTE...86.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 989 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LA 1 AM CDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 4 AM CDT. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 110300UTC 35.5N 145.7E GOOD MOVE NE 29KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 120300UTC 44.9N 158.8E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS84 KMOB 110422 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-111000- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1100 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA TO DESTIN... ...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SLOWING DOWN AS IT TURNS NORTHWESTWARD... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN BALDWIN...MOBILE...WASHINGTON...CHOCTAW...WILCOX...MONROE... CLARKE...CONECUH...BUTLER...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA AND COVINGTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. FOR ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. FOR STONE...GEORGE... GREENE...PERRY AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF BALDWIN AND MOBILE IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND FOR ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1000 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED UNTIL ARLENE MAKES LANDFALL. SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE ARLENE MAKES LANDFALL. THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL APPROACH THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINES ON SATURDAY...WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SUBJECT TO FLOODING SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE RECOMMENDED EVACUATIONS OF ALL LOW LYING AREAS. ANYONE LIVING IN MOBILE HOMES...MANUFACTURED HOMES...TRAVEL TRAILERS OR FEMA GROUP SITES SHOULD ALSO EVACUATE. ALSO...EVACUATION OF SOME LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS SUCH AS BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS DIRECTLY ON THE GULF IS BEING RECOMMENDED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. LISTEN TO LOCAL TV OR RADIO FOR DETAILS ON AREAS AFFECTED OR FOR INFORMATION ON SHELTERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL FLOOD SOME HOMES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE ELEVATION IS LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND ON SOME INLAND BAYS AND WATERWAYS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF NEAR 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASE DURING THE MORNING TO NEAR 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE INLAND COUNTIES AROUND NOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ARLENE COULD BECOME A WEAK CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE WITH WINDS NEAR 75 MPH. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH DUE TO INCREASING HIGH SURF AND STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING...SURFING...AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL ARLENE MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR NORTH AND EAST OF ARLENE'S PATH. AS A RESULT...THE ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG AREA RIVERS NEED TO MONITOR ARLENE'S EXACT PATH AS WELL AS WIND INTENSITY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND SHOULD RIVER FLOODING DEVELOP. ...TORNADO THREAT... AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO ARLENE'S DEVELOPMENT AND APPROACH. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT OVER THE REGION AND WILL REMAIN AT A SOMEWHAT ELEVATED LEVEL UNTIL ARLENE MAKES LANDFALL AND MOVES WELL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ...NEW INFORMATION... WE WILL BEGIN ISSUING SHORT TERM FORECASTS (NOW) HOURLY AS THE RAIN BANDS AND WINDS FROM ARLENE BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 500 AM CDT SATURDAY. $$ BEELER ** WTUS84 KLIX 110501 RRA *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-058-060>064-068>070-MSZ080>082-110645- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1032 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE MOVING NORTHWEST AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES IN LOUISIANA... JEFFERSON...LIVINGSTON...ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD... ST CHARLES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY AND TANGIPAHOA. IN ADDITION....THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR HANCOCK AND HARRISON COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1000 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ARLENE IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THOUGH THE EFFECTS OF ARLENE WILL BE FELT ON THE COAST MUCH EARLIER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ARLENE COULD REACH CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE CONDITIONS INCLUDING...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS...75 MPH AND HIGHER...AND TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS. RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST SHOULD PREPARE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...40 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS AND NEAR TIDAL LAKES OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW ADVICE OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING A HALF A FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...TIDES WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY EXCEPT 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OF JACKSON COUNTY. OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...TIDES WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...WITH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE PROTECTION AREAS IN AREAS OF ST BERNARD...PLAQUEMINES AND EASTERN ORLEANS PARISHES. SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO OCCUR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND GRAND ISLE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS.... EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HIGHER SHOULD AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND ESPECIALLY COASTAL MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...PRIMARILY IN GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE IN JACKSON COUNTY ON SATURDAY. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEW INFORMATION... HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130 AM CDT. $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 110505 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.06.2005 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.0N 86.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.06.2005 26.0N 86.1W STRONG 12UTC 11.06.2005 28.5N 86.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.06.2005 30.5N 86.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.06.2005 34.4N 87.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.06.2005 38.1N 86.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.06.2005 40.9N 84.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.06.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 110505 ** WTNT31 KNHC 110545 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005 ...ARLENE CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.....INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND ALSO FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA EASTWARD TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ARLENE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM...AND MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL...AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES ...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. A NOAA AUTOMATED STATION SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH WITH A GUST TO 44 MPH. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK ACROSS FLORIDA...THE SOUTHEAST...THE APPALACHIANS...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND THE OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...27.5 N... 86.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$