** WTUS84 KLIX 101807 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-049-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-102130- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 100 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FROM GRAND ISLE EAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES IN LOUISIANA... ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...JEFFERSON...LAFOURCHE...LIVINGSTON... ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD...ST CHARLES...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA AND TERREBONNE IN ADDITION....THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO ST MARKS FLORIDA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 100 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STROM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SHOULD BE ON GUARD LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...40 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS AND NEAR TIDAL LAKES SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT A HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...AS TROPICAL STORM ARLENE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...TIDE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RUN 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT OF COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL BE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...AND AREAS OF ST BERNARD...PLAQUEMINES AND ORLEANS PARISHES OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES. SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO OCCUR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND GRAND ISLE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS.... EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 MPH AND HIGHER MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT LOWER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF ARLENE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 430 PM CDT. $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 101812 CCA *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM AST VIERNES 10 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...ARLENE SE MUEVE AL NORTE SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO... ...ESTA PRODUCIENDO FUERTES LLUVIAS Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS SOBRE PARTES DE LA FLORIDA... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN VIGOR PARA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA HASTA ST MARKS FLORIDA... INCLUYENDO LA CUIDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL HASTA PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA DRY TORTUGAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO AL OESTE DE GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA HASTA MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO Y LAS AREAS ADYACENTES DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 20 PM...1800Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ESTABA ESTIMADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.0 OESTE O COMO A 375 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI Y ALREDEDOR DE 400 MILLAS 760 KM AL SUR SURESTE DE PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE AHORA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE CON UN LEVE AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACCION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE ARLENE SE ACERCARA A LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO PARA EL SABADO. SIN EMBARGO...LA MAYOR PARTE DEL MAL TIEMPO ASOCIADO CON ARLENE LLEGARA MUCHO ANTES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 60 MPH CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION ADICIONAL ES PRONOSTICADO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...ES POSIBLE QUE ARELENE ALCANZE INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN ANTES DE TOCAR TIERRA. VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 45 MPH...CON RAFAGAS HASTA 55 MPH...FUERON REPORTADO RECIENTMENTE EN DRY TORTUGAS. ACTUALMENTE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA SE ACERCA A ARLENE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES FUE DE 997 MB...29.44 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES ADCIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 3 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PORCION CENTRAL Y OESTE DE CUBA. LLUVIAS GENERALIZADAS PRODUCIENDO CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS Y CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE SOBRE 7 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL SUR Y CENTRO DE FLORIDA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LLUVIA FUERTE ASOCIADA CON ARLENE ES PROBABLE QUE COMIENZE A PROPAGARSE A TRAVES DEL CENTRO Y ESTE DE LAS REGIONES COSTERAS CENTRALES DEL GOLFO DURANTE EL ANOCHECER DEL VIERNES. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN INUNDACIONES COSTERAS CON LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL...ACOMPANADO DE GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE TOQUE TIERRA EL CENTRO DE ARLENE. LOS NIVELES DE LAS AGUAS ACTUALMENTE ESTAN MEDIO PIE SOBRE LA MAREA NORMAL OCURREN EN LA PARTE NORTE DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. TORNADOS AISLADOS PODRIAN OCURRIR SOBRE PORCIONES DEL SUROESTE DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM EST...25.0 N...85.0 O. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...997 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB/AVILA $$ ** WTUS82 KTAE 101826 *** HLSTAE FLZ008-012-014-015-027-102230- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 224 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO ST MARKS FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INCLUDING WALTON...BAY...GULF...FRANKLIN...AND WAKULLA COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EASTWARD TO PANAMA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND EASTWARD TO ST MARKS. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 PM CDT...TROPICAL STORM WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 DEGREES NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 DEGREES WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA...OR ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE WAS MOVING NORTH NEAR 13 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 60 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE BAD WEATHER...IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS...WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE CENTER. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE HEAVIER SQUALLS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF APALACHEE BAY. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 OR 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. THESE WINDS COULD BE HIGHER IF ARLENE STRENGTHENS OR MOVES FARTHER EAST THAN FORECAST. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WEST OF THE PANHANDLE...FLOODING IS STILL THE MAJOR CONCERN. WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE...WITH SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...WITH RIVER FLOODING LIKELY TO FOLLOW AFTER THAT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... IF THE STORM FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...THE STORM SURGE WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO 3 FEET. IF ARLENE INTENSIFIES AND MAKES LANDFALL FARTHER EAST IN THE WATCH AREA...THEN THE STORM SURGE COULD BE 4 TO 6 FEET...WHICH COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. CURRENTLY TIDES ARE RUNNING A FOOT OR LESS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST. LOCAL TIDES FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS... ST MARKS... TONIGHT: LOW 11:44 PM SATURDAY: HIGH 6:20 AM...LOW 11:11 AM EDT APALACHICOLA... TONIGHT: 5:16 PM EDT SATURDAY: LOW 1:46 AM EDT...HIGH 9:26 AM EDT...LOW 1:30 PM EDT PORT ST JOE... TONIGHT: LOW 11:53 PM SATURDAY: HIGH 1:12 PM SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY... TODAY: HIGH 12:08 PM...LOW 11:33 PM. SATURDAY: HIGH 12:39 PM...LOW 11:53 PM. ...RIP CURRENTS... ONSHORE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...AND A HIGH RISK ON SATURDAY. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS ARLENE APPROACHES THE GULF COAST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN NOW BEFORE THE WEATHER DETERIORATES. STORE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS OR YARD FURNITURE. POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR DUE TO STRONG WIND GUSTS. STOCK UP ON BATTERIES...FLASHLIGHTS...WATER...AND NON-PERISHABLE FOOD. HAVE CASH ON HAND...AS CREDIT CARDS AND ATM MACHINES MAY NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER. BOATS SHOULD BE MOVED TO A SAFE LOCATION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY 530 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. $$ FOURNIER/WOOL ** WTUS82 KEYW 101841 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ075-102130- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 230 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH 11 PM... ...CONDITIONS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. TORNADO WATCH ADDED. UPDATED TORNADO IMPACTS. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TORNDAO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 11 PM. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 997 MB...OR 29.44 INCHES OF MERCURY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED TO ALL TRAFFIC AT THIS TIME UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL STORM. THE KEY WEST AIRPORT REMAINS OPEN...BUT THERE MAY BE WEATHER RELATED DELAYS OR CANCELLATIONS. GREYHOUND BUS LINES CONTINUES TO OPERATE. ...MARINE IMPACTS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST WILL BUILD UP TO 12 FEET. ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST COULD BUILD UP TO 14 FEET. SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS WILL BUILD UP TO 7 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A WATERSPOUT OCCURRED NEAR SHORE AROUND 1215 PM...IN THE VICINITY OF OCEAN LANE NEAR MILE MARKER 76. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS VALID UNTIL 11PM. TORNADOS EMBEDDED IN RAINBANDS WILL REMAIN A RISK THROUGH THE WATCH PERIOD. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH SQUALLS TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A DECREASE IS LIKELY TOWARD EVENING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE...WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES WERE RUNNING ONE HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT KEY WEST. TIDES WERE NEAR NORMAL FURTHER UP THE FLORIDA KEYS. SIGNIFICANT STORM TIDE FLOODING WAS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...MINOR OVERWASH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED ROADWAYS ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE KEYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 500 PM EDT. $$ DEVANAS ** WTPQ20 RJTD 101800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 101800UTC 32.5N 142.0E FAIR MOVE ENE 12KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 200NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 111800UTC 40.2N 150.0E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 101800 UTC 00HR 32.7N 142.0E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NE 30KM/H= ** WTNT71 KNHC 102042 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT MON JUN 13 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.4N 87.3W 44 X X X 44 GULFPORT MS 28 4 X X 32 32.6N 87.9W 15 17 X X 32 BURAS LA 20 4 X X 24 35.5N 87.5W X 12 13 X 25 NEW ORLEANS LA 11 7 X X 18 CEDAR KEY FL 2 X X X 2 NEW IBERIA LA 1 3 2 X 6 ST MARKS FL 12 1 1 X 14 GULF 29N 85W 46 X X X 46 APALACHICOLA FL 34 X X X 34 GULF 29N 87W 57 X X X 57 PANAMA CITY FL 40 X X X 40 GULF 28N 89W 19 1 X X 20 PENSACOLA FL 43 X X X 43 GULF 28N 91W 1 2 X X 3 MOBILE AL 37 2 X X 39 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 102042 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...LARGE ARLENE DRENCHING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM ST MARKS FLORIDA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. AT 5 PM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED...AND ARLENE IS NOW MOVING JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. ARLENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM...AND MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES... MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND MOST OF FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 7 INCHES. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO THIS WEEKEND. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF ARLENE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 85.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 102042 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005 2100Z FRI JUN 10 2005 AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM ST MARKS FLORIDA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. AT 5 PM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 85.2W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 85.2W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 85.0W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.8N 86.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.4N 87.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 32.6N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 35.5N 87.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 85.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 102050 *** TCVAT1 ARLENE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 .TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FLC037-129-GMZ750-755-770-775-110300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W ST-MARKS-FL 30.10N 84.20W $$ FLC005-045-110300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 PANAMA-CITY-FL 30.12N 85.70W ST-MARKS-FL 30.10N 84.20W $$ FLC065-123-110300- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1001.050610T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ST-MARKS-FL 30.10N 84.20W STEINHATCHEE-RIVER-FL 29.67N 83.40W $$ LAC051-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-GMZ530-550-555-570-575-110300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 GRAND-ISLE-LA 29.25N 89.96W MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W $$ LAC051-057-109-GMZ550-570-110300- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W GRAND-ISLE-LA 29.25N 89.96W $$ FLC045-110300- /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1001.050610T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 PANAMA-CITY-FL 30.12N 85.70W INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W $$ ALC003-097-FLC005-033-091-113-131-MSC045-047-059-GMZ555-575-630- 650-655-670-675-750-770-110300- /E.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W PANAMA-CITY-FL 30.12N 85.70W $$ ALC003-097-FLC033-091-113-131-MSC045-047-059-GMZ630-650-655-670- 675-110300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W PANAMA-CITY-FL 30.12N 85.70W $$ GMZ033-075-110300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W $$ ATTN...WFO...LIX...TAE...MOB...EYW... ** WTNT41 KNHC 102059 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ARLENE CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION BUT LACKS AN INNER CORE. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF SHEARED SYSTEMS. SHIP AND AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 997 MB...AND 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS RECENTLY PEAKED AT 69 KT. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 55 KT. IN THE CURRENT MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ARLENE STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OVERALL FORWARD SPEED OF MOTION OF THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED...AS ANTICIPATED...AND ARLENE IS NOW MOVING JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD FORCE ARLENE ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THIS WILL BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE IS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...SO RAIN AND WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTLINE MUCH EARLIER. SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST HAVE BEEN EXTENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 25.7N 85.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 27.8N 86.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 30.4N 87.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 32.6N 87.9W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 12/1800Z 35.5N 87.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 72HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 102102 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ075-110030- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 530 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH 11 PM... ...CONDITIONS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD BEGIN THIS EVENING... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED TORNADO IMPACTS. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 11 PM. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 230 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST. ARLENE IS MOVING WEST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 997 MB...OR 29.44 INCHES OF MERCURY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED TONIGHT...BUT WILL OPEN AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. UTILITIES COMPANIES REPORT NO SIGNIFICANT POWER OUTAGES IN THE KEYS AT THIS TIME. THE KEY WEST AIRPORT REMAINS OPEN. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CANCELLATIONS...BUT IT IS NOW BACK TO NORMAL. GREYHOUND BUS LINES CONTINUES TO OPERATE. THE POWERBOAT RACES WILL PROCEED AS SCHEDULED ON SATURDAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL STORM. ...MARINE IMPACTS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FEET WILL CONTINUE IN THE ATLANTIC FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST. 10 TO 14 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST. SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS WILL CONTINUE UP TO 10 FEET. SEAS OVER ALL WATERS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY LATE TONIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE TORNADO WATCH ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11PM. TORNADOS EMBEDDED IN RAINBANDS WILL REMAIN A RISK THROUGH THE WATCH PERIOD. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH SQUALLS TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATE TONIGHT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE RUNNING ONE HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT KEY WEST. TIDES ARE NEAR NORMAL FURTHER UP THE FLORIDA KEYS. MINOR OVERWASH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED ROADWAYS ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE KEYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 830 PM EDT. $$ FELTGEN ** WTUS82 KEYW 102105 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ075-110030- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 530 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH 11 PM... ...CONDITIONS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. UPDATED TORNADO IMPACTS. UPDATED WIND IMPACTS. UPDATED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS UNTIL 11 PM. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 230 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST. ARLENE IS MOVING WEST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 997 MB...OR 29.44 INCHES OF MERCURY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED TONIGHT...BUT WILL OPEN AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. UTILITIES COMPANIES REPORT NO SIGNIFICANT POWER OUTAGES IN THE KEYS AT THIS TIME. THE KEY WEST AIRPORT REMAINS OPEN. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CANCELLATIONS...BUT IT IS NOW BACK TO NORMAL. GREYHOUND BUS LINES CONTINUES TO OPERATE. THE POWERBOAT RACES WILL PROCEED AS SCHEDULED ON SATURDAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL STORM. ...MARINE IMPACTS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FEET WILL CONTINUE IN THE ATLANTIC FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST. 10 TO 14 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST. SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS WILL CONTINUE UP TO 10 FEET. SEAS OVER ALL WATERS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY LATE TONIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THE TORNADO WATCH ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11PM. TORNADOS EMBEDDED IN RAINBANDS WILL REMAIN A RISK THROUGH THE WATCH PERIOD. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH SQUALLS TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING LATE TONIGHT. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE RUNNING ONE HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT KEY WEST. TIDES ARE NEAR NORMAL FURTHER UP THE FLORIDA KEYS. MINOR OVERWASH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED ROADWAYS ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE KEYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE ON TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 830 PM EDT. $$ FELTGEN ** WTUS84 KBMX 102110 *** HLSBMX ALZ011>015-017>050-110100- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 400 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO ALL CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES SERVICED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 400 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST....OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE IS MOVING JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SECURE ALL LOOSE OBJECTS...SUCH AS PATIO FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS... OR MOVE THEM INDOORS. FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FLASH FLOODING...WILL BE A PROBLEM DUE TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE. FLOODING CAN BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT...WHERE WATER CAN QUICKLY FLOOD ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIMITED IN THE DARK. DO NOT TRY TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN. ...WIND IMPACTS... THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ARLENE MAKES LANDFALL. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. ...FLOOD IMPACTS... OUTER RAIN BANDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ROTATING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY...PRODUCING LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FROM ARLENE WILL BE FLASH FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. STORM TOTALS (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) MAY APPROACH 4 TO 8 INCHES. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LOWER BLACK WARRIOR RIVER...WITH RIVERS RISING TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE ON THE TALLAPOOSA...ALABAMA...AND CAHABA RIVERS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING. && $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 102130 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-050-058-060>064-068>070-MSZ080>082-110100- TROPICAL STORM****HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 430 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FROM GRAND ISLE EAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES IN LOUISIANA... JEFFERSON...LIVINGSTON...ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD... ST CHARLES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY AND TANGIPAHOA IN ADDITION....THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 400 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ARLENE IS MOVING JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STROM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SHOULD BE ON GUARD LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...40 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS AND NEAR TIDAL LAKES SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING A HALF A FOOT TO A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...AS TROPICAL STORM ARLENE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...TIDE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RUN 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MISSISSIPPI COAST. THE GREATEST THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...AND AREAS OF ST BERNARD... PLAQUEMINES AND ORLEANS PARISHES OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES. SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO OCCUR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND GRAND ISLE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS.... EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 MPH AND HIGHER MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT LOWER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF ARLENE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. ...RAINFALL... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SATURDAY. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 730 PM CDT. $$ ** WTUS82 KTAE 102142 *** HLSTAE FLZ008-012-014-015-018-027-028-110130- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 531 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST AND IS NOW EXTENDED EAST TO STEINHATCHEE FLORIDA. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INCLUDING WALTON...BAY...GULF...FRANKLIN... WAKULLA...JEFFERSON AND TAYLOR COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EASTWARD TO PANAMA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND EASTWARD TO STEINHATCHEE. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 4 PM CDT...5PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 DEGREES NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 DEGREES WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE WAS MOVING NORTH NEAR 17 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 65 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE FORM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI COAST TO PENSACOLA EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE BAD WEATHER...IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS...WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE CENTER. ...WIND IMPACTS... IF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HOLDS TRUE... THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH COULD REACH THE PANHANDLE COAST...FROM CAPE SAN BLAS WESTWARD AS EARLY AS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS COULD BE HIGHER AND COULD EXTEND FURTHER EAST INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE BIG BEND SHOULD ARLENE STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TO OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OR SO... A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY TO THE EAST... ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLE...MUCH OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED 7 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED AND RIVER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... IF THE STORM FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...THE STORM SURGE WILL BE ABOUT 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTH WALTON BEACHES...AND 2 TO 4 FEET FURTHER EASTWARD ACROSS BAY...GULF AND WAKULLA COUNTIES. THE TAYLOR COUNTY COAST SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER STORM TIDES... UP TO 3 FEET. SOME BEACH EROSION WILL OCCUR IN VULNERABLE LOCATIONS INCLUDING CAPE SAN BLAS DUE TO HEAVY WAVE ACTION. IF ARLENE INTENSIFIES AND MAKES LANDFALL FARTHER EAST IN THE WATCH AREA...THEN THE STORM SURGE COULD BE 4 TO 6 FEET...MAINLY FROM PANAMA CITY WESTWARD. CURRENTLY TIDES ARE RUNNING A FOOT OR LESS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST. NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AND COULD ADD TO THE STORM TIDE LEVELS SPECIFIC TIDE FORECASTS FOLLOWS... ST MARKS... TONIGHT: LOW 11:44 PM SATURDAY: HIGH 6:20 AM...LOW 11:11 AM EDT APALACHICOLA... TONIGHT: 5:16 PM EDT SATURDAY: LOW 1:46 AM EDT...HIGH 9:26 AM EDT...LOW 1:30 PM EDT PORT ST JOE... TONIGHT: LOW 11:53 PM SATURDAY: HIGH 1:12 PM SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY... TODAY: HIGH 12:08 PM...LOW 11:33 PM. SATURDAY: HIGH 12:39 PM...LOW 11:53 PM. ...RIP CURRENTS... ONSHORE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CREATE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...AND A HIGH RISK ON SATURDAY. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE A POSSIBILITY BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY AS ARLENE APPROACHES THE GULF COAST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN NOW BEFORE THE WEATHER DETERIORATES. STORE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS OR YARD FURNITURE. POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR DUE TO STRONG WIND GUSTS. STOCK UP ON BATTERIES...FLASHLIGHTS... WATER...AND NON-PERISHABLE FOOD. HAVE CASH ON HAND...AS CREDIT CARDS AND ATM MACHINES MAY NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER. BOATS SHOULD BE MOVED TO A SAFE LOCATION OR SECURED PROPERLY. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY 730 PM CDT (830 EDT) THIS EVENING. $$ GOREE $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 102152 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO BE 55 KT IN THE TABLE ARLENE CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION BUT LACKS AN INNER CORE. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF SHEARED SYSTEMS. SHIP AND AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 997 MB...AND 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS RECENTLY PEAKED AT 69 KT. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 55 KT. IN THE CURRENT MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ARLENE STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OVERALL FORWARD SPEED OF MOTION OF THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED...AS ANTICIPATED...AND ARLENE IS NOW MOVING JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD FORCE ARLENE ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THIS WILL BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE IS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...SO RAIN AND WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTLINE MUCH EARLIER. SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST HAVE BEEN EXTENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 25.7N 85.2W 55 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 27.8N 86.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 30.4N 87.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 32.6N 87.9W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 12/1800Z 35.5N 87.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 72HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 102100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 102100UTC 32.9N 142.7E FAIR MOVE NE 13KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 200NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 112100UTC 41.7N 152.0E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS84 KMOB 102201 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-110400- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 500 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE MOVING CLOSER TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA... ...A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...THIS INCLUDES ALL OF THE ALABAMA COAST AS WELL AS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE IS MOVING JUST WEST OF NORTH NEAR 17 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL APPROACH THE THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINES ON SATURDAY...WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SUBJECT TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FT OR MORE WILL AFFECT THEM. ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA HAS RECOMMENDED EVACUATIONS FOR ANYONE LIVING IN A CATEGORY ONE EVACUATION AREA. THIS INCLUDES PERDIDO KEY...PENSACOLA BEACH...INERARITY POINT AND ALL AREAS SOUTH OF GULF BEACH HIGHWAY. THE OTHER ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE ALSO RECOMMENDED EVACUATIONS OF ALL LOW LYING AREAS. ANYONE LIVING IN MOBILE HOMES...MANUFACTURED HOMES...TRAVEL TRAILERS OR FEMA GROUP SITES SHOULD ALSO EVACUATE. ALSO...EVACUATION OF SOME LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS SUCH AS BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS DIRECTLY ON THE GULF IS BEING RECOMMENDED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. LISTEN TO LOCAL TV OR RADIO FOR DETAILS ON AREAS AFFECTED OR FOR INFORMATION ON SHELTERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL FLOOD SOME HOMES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE ELEVATION IS LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND ON SOME INLAND BAYS AND WATERWAYS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY TO NEAR 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE INLAND COUNTIES AROUND NOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IF ARLENE STRENGTHENS JUST A LITTLE BIT...SHE COULD BECOME A WEAK CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE WITH WINDS NEAR 75 MPH. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH DUE TO INCREASING HIGH SURF AND STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING...SURFING...AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL ARLENE MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR JUST EAST OF ARLENE'S PATH. AS A RESULT...THE ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG AREA RIVERS NEED TO MONITOR ARLENE'S EXACT PATH AS WELL AS WIND INTENSITY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND SHOULD RIVER FLOODING DEVELOP. ...TORNADO THREAT... AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO ARLENE'S DEVELOPMENT AND APPROACH. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT OVER THE REGION AND WILL REMAIN AT A SOMEWHAT ELEVATED LEVEL UNTIL ARLENE MAKES LANDFALL AND MOVES WELL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 11 PM CDT TONIGHT. $$ BEELER/CULLEN ** WTNT31 KNHC 102206 CCA *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...LARGE ARLENE DRENCHING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM ST MARKS FLORIDA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. AT 5 PM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED...AND ARLENE IS NOW MOVING JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. ARLENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM...AND MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES... MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND MOST OF FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 7 INCHES. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO THIS WEEKEND. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF ARLENE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 85.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 102214 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT VIERNES 10 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...LA GRAN ARLENE EMPAPANDO A PARTES DE LA FLORIDA EN SU TRAYECTORIA HACIA EL NORTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO... A LAS 5 PM...2100 UTC...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE HA EXTENDIDO HACIA EL ESTE A LO LARGO DEL NORTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE ST MARKS FLORIDA HASTA STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA...Y LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN HA SIDO EXTENDIDA HACIA EL ESTE HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AHORA ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA HASTA STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA... INCLUYENDO LA CUIDAD DE NEW ORLEANS Y LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN AHORA ESTA EN EFECTO DESDE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL HASTA INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA DRY TORTUGAS. A LAS 5 PM...LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL OESTE DE GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA HASTA MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HA SIDO DESCONTINUADA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO Y LAS AREAS ADYACENTES DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM...2100Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ESTABA ESTIMADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.7 NORTE... LONGITUD 85.2 OESTE O COMO A 335 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI Y ALREDEDOR DE 345 MILLAS AL SUR-SURESTE DE PENSACOLA FLORIDA. LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION HA AUMENTADO...Y ARLENE AHORA SE ESTA MOVIENDO JUSTO AL OESTE DE NORTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE ARLENE SE ACERCARA A LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO EL SABADO. ARLENE ES UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL GRANDE...Y LA MAYOR PARTE DE SU LLUVIA ASOCIADA LLEGARA MUCHO ANTES QUE EL CENTRO. LOS DATOS DEL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 65 MPH...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES...Y ESTOS VIENTOS ESTAN OCURRIENDO MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y ES POSIBLE QUE ARELENE PUEDA ALCANZAR INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN ANTES DE TOCAR TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 150 MILLAS...MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 997 MB...29.44 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA LLUVIA FUERTE ASOCIADA CON ARLENE CONTINUE A TRAVES DEL CENTRO Y OESTE DE CUBA Y LA MAYOR PARTE DE LA FLORIDA. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 3 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES A TRAVES DE ESTAS REGIONES...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS AISLADAS DE HASTA 7 PULGADAS. LLUVIA FUERTE ASOCIADA CON ARLENE CONTINUARA EXTENDIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LSA APPALACHIANS DEL SURESTE Y SUR...EL VALLE DE TENNESSEE Y EL VALLE DE OHIO DURANTE EL ANOCHECER HASTA EL FIN DE SEMANA. SE ESPERAN TOTALES DE PRECIPITACION DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS A LO LARGO Y AL ESTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DE ARLENE...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 12 PULGADAS A LO LARGO DE LOS ESTADOS COSTEROS DEL GOLFO CENTRAL Y DEL ESTE. SE PUEDE ESPERAR QUE OCURRAN INUNDACIONES COSTERAS CON LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LOS NIVELES NORMALES DE LA MAREA... ACOMPANADO DE GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE TOQUE TIERRA EL CENTRO. LOS NIVELES DE LAS AGUAS ACTUALMENTE ESTAN MEDIO COMO A UN PIE SOBRE LA MAREA NORMAL A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO. TORNADOS AISLADOS PODRIAN OCURRIR SOBRE PARTES DEL SUR Y OESTE-CENTRAL DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA ESTA NOCHE. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EST...25.7 NORTE...85.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 997 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM EDT SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB/AVILA $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 102351 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...ARLENE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA... INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 18 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. ARLENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM...AND MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN AND WINDS WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER. RECENT DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES... MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND MOST OF FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 7 INCHES. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO THIS WEEKEND. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF ARLENE... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...26.4 N... 85.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$