** WTUS84 KLIX 101201 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-046>050-056>070-MSZ080>082-101530- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 700 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES IN LOUISIANA... ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...BATON ROUGE...IBERVILLE...JEFFERSON... LAFOURCHE...LIVINGSTON...ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD...ST CHARLES...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA AND TERREBONNE IN ADDITION....THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 700 AM CDT...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6 NORTH AND 84.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE ON GUARD LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...40 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS AND NEAR TIDAL LAKES SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. ACROSS INLAND AREAS...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. RESIDENTS ALONG RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...AS TROPICAL STORM ARLENE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...TIDE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RUN 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS ALONG THE COAST AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL WAVE ACTION WILL ALSO COMPOUND THE EFFECTS OF THE STORM SURGE. ...WIND IMPACTS.... EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 MPH AND HIGHER WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT LOWER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI EARLY SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1030 AM CDT. $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 100600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KEYW 101248 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-101530- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 900 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...ARLENE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS MEASURED AT 1000 MB...OR 29.53 INCHES OF MERCURY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 55 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED TO ALL TRAFFIC AT THIS TIME UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL STORM. ...MARINE IMPACTS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC FROM OCEAN REEF TO DRY TORTUGAS WILL BUILD UP TO 12 FEET. SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS WILL BUILD UP TO 7 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH SQUALLS TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A DECREASE IS LIKELY TOWARD EVENING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES TODAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... INTERMITTENT HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS MAY PRODUCE LOCAL STREET FLOODING AT TIMES. STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES WERE RUNNING ONE HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT KEY WEST. TIDES WERE NEAR NORMAL FURTHER UP THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT 1220 PM IN KEY WEST...AND 1109 AM AT VACA CUT. SIGNIFICANT STORM TIDE FLOODING WAS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...MINOR OVERWASH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED ROADWAYS ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE KEYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1130 AM EDT. $$ DFM/DEVANAS ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 101200 UTC 00HR 31.3N 141.4E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NE 30KM/H= ** WTJP21 RJTD 101200 *** WARNING 101200. WARNING VALID 111200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0504 NESAT (0504) 992 HPA AT 31.6N 141.0E SOUTH OF HACHIJOJIMA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 34.2N 144.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 38.6N 149.1E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 101200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 101200UTC 31.6N 141.0E FAIR MOVE ENE 14KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 200NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 111200UTC 38.6N 149.1E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTJP21 RJTD 101200 *** WARNING 101200. WARNING VALID 111200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0504 NESAT (0504) 992 HPA AT 31.6N 141.0E SOUTH OF HACHIJOJIMA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 34.2N 144.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 38.6N 149.1E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 101200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 101200UTC 31.6N 141.0E FAIR MOVE ENE 14KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 200NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 111200UTC 38.6N 149.1E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS82 KTAE 101321 *** HLSTAE FLZ008-012-014-101630- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 817 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INCLUDING WALTON...BAY...AND GULF COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS IN GULF COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM CDT...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 MPH. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THAT THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE BAD WEATHER WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE CENTER. ...WIND IMPACTS... SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...MAINLY IN A FEW SQUALLS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE WINDS AT THE COAST WILL BE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON SATURDAY...UNLESS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED. THIS IS STILL POSSIBLE...WHICH IS WHY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. IF ARLENE MAKES LANDFALL FARTHER EAST OR INTENSIFIES MORE THAN EXPECTED THEN WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH COULD AFFECT THE COAST. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WEST OF THE PANHANDLE...FLOODING IS STILL THE MAJOR CONCERN. WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE...WITH SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... IF THE STORM FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...THE STORM SURGE WILL BE ABOUT 1 TO 2 FEET. IF ARLENE MAKES LANDFALL FARTHER EAST IN THE WATCH AREA...THEN THE STORM SURGE WILL BE NEAR 4 FEET...WHICH COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND SOME COASTAL FLOODING. LOCAL TIDES FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS... PORT ST. JOE... TONIGHT: LOW 11:53 PM SATURDAY: HIGH 1:12 PM SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY... TODAY: HIGH 12:08 PM...LOW 11:33 PM. SATURDAY: HIGH 12:39 PM...LOW 11:53 PM. ...RIP CURRENTS... ONSHORE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL SUPPORT STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND SATURDAY. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS ARLENE APPROACHES THE GULF COAST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN NOW BEFORE THE WEATHER DETERIORATES. STORE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS OR YARD FURNITURE. POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR OVER AREAS AFFECTED BY TROPICAL STORM WINDS. STOCK UP ON BATTERIES...FLASHLIGHTS...WATER...AND NON-PERISHABLE FOOD. HAVE CASH ON HAND...AS CREDIT CARDS AND ATM MACHINES MAY NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER. BOATS SHOULD BE MOVED TO A SAFE LOCATION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY 1130 AM CDT THIS MORNING. $$ FOURNIER ** WTNT31 KNHC 101453 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...ARLENE STRENGTHENS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO ST MARKS FLORIDA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ALSO AT 11 AM ...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HR. AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SATELLITE IMAGES...AIRCRAFT DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF ARLENE HAS REFORMED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES... 705 KM... SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 470 MILES... 755 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES ...240 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH RAINS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO OVER 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...24.0 N... 84.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 101453 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005 1500Z FRI JUN 10 2005 AT 11 AM...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO ST MARKS FLORIDA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HR. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 84.9W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 84.9W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 84.9W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.2N 85.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.8N 87.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.1N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 33.8N 88.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 40.0N 86.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 84.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 101453 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 28.8N 87.3W 43 1 X X 44 GULFPORT MS 9 23 X X 32 31.1N 88.5W 5 27 X X 32 BURAS LA 13 14 X 1 28 33.8N 88.8W X 12 12 1 25 NEW ORLEANS LA 4 18 1 X 23 SAVANNAH GA X X X 2 2 NEW IBERIA LA X 7 4 X 11 CEDAR KEY FL 1 X X 1 2 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 1 1 2 ST MARKS FL 2 4 2 X 8 GULF 29N 85W 22 2 X X 24 APALACHICOLA FL 12 5 1 X 18 GULF 29N 87W 41 2 X X 43 PANAMA CITY FL 14 8 X X 22 GULF 28N 89W 27 3 X X 30 PENSACOLA FL 16 16 X X 32 GULF 28N 91W 2 5 1 X 8 MOBILE AL 11 22 1 X 34 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 101459 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST VIERNES 10 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...ARLENE SE FORTALECE EN EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO... ...VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EMITIDO PARA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLGO... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA EL OESTE DE CUBA DESDE PINAR DEL RIO HASTA LA CIUDAD DE HABANA Y SUS PROVINCIAS ...INCLUYENDO LA ISLA JUVENTUD. ESTOS AVISOS PUDIERAN SER DESCONTINUADOS MAS TARDE HOY. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA DRY TORTUGAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DESDE MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HASTA INIDIAN PASS EN FLORIDA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL CARIBE Y EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.9 OESTE O COMO A 50 MILLAS...80 KM...AL NORTE DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. ARLENE AHORA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...16 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CON UN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACCION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA ARLENE SE ESTARA ALEJANDO DEL OESTE DE CUBA ESTA MANANA Y SE ESTARA MOVIENDO EN EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. REPORTES DE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ESTOS VIENTOS ESTAN CONFINADOS EN UNA PEQUENA AREA AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO. ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION ADICIONAL ES PROBABLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES FUE DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA ASOCIADAS A LA TORMENTA ENTRE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS A TRAVES DE GRAN PARTE DEL OESTE Y EL CENTRO DE CUBA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS EN LOS TERRENOS ALTOS DE CUBA. EN GENERAL CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LO CAYOS DE FLORIDA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LLUVIA FUERTE ASOCIADA CON ARLENE ES PROBABLE QUE COMIENZE A PROPAGARSE A TRAVES DEL CENTRO Y ESTE DE LAS REGIONES COSTERAS DEL GOLFO TARDE ESTA NOCHE. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS EN LA COSTA SUR DE LA PARTE OESTE DE CUBA. TORNADOS AISLADOS PODRIAN OCURRIR SOBRE PORCIONES DEL SUROESTE DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EST...24.0 N...84.9 O. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...55 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB/AVILA $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 101502 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ARLENE HAS STRENGTHENED WHILE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 64 KT ABOUT 110 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 1130Z. THIS CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN EXPANDED BASED UPON THIS DATA...AND BASED UPON A 35 KT REPORT FROM SHIP PFRX AT 1200Z. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING...AND ARLENE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE LANDFALL...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH FORECASTS 60 KT IN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ARLENE COULD REACH THE COAST AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE. SINCE YESTERDAY...ARLENE HAS BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER. IN FACT...SEVERAL CENTERS HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT RELOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...IS BASED UPON A MEAN OF THE VARIOUS SMALLER CIRCULATIONS. DESPITE THE RELOCATION TO THE NORTH...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 24.0N 84.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 26.2N 85.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 28.8N 87.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 31.1N 88.5W 50 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 12/1200Z 33.8N 88.8W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 13/1200Z 40.0N 86.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 96HR VT 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 101519 *** TCVAT1 ARLENE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 .TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FLC037-129-GMZ755-775-102100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1001.050610T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W ST-MARKS-FL 30.10N 84.20W $$ LAC051-063-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-GMZ530-550-570-102100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1001.050610T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 GRAND-ISLE-LA 29.25N 89.96W MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W $$ LAC057-109-102100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W GRAND-ISLE-LA 29.25N 89.96W $$ ALC003-097-FLC005-033-091-113-131-MSC045-047-059-GMZ555-575-630- 650-655-670-675-750-770-102100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W PANAMA-CITY-FL 30.12N 85.70W $$ FLC045-102100- /E.CAN.KNHC.TR.A.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 PANAMA-CITY-FL 30.12N 85.70W INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W $$ ALC003-097-FLC005-033-091-113-131-MSC045-047-059-GMZ555-575-630- 650-655-670-675-750-770-102100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1001.050610T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ /E.NEW.KNHC.HU.A.1001.050610T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 MOUTH-PEARL-RIVER-LA 30.15N 89.60W PANAMA-CITY-FL 30.12N 85.70W $$ FLC045-102100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1001.050610T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 PANAMA-CITY-FL 30.12N 85.70W INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W $$ GMZ033-075-102100- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W $$ ATTN...WFO...LIX...TAE...MOB...EYW... ** WTUS82 KEYW 101523 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ075-101830- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. UPDATED MARINE IMPACTS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 200 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1000 MB...OR 29.53 INCHES OF MERCURY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED TO ALL TRAFFIC AT THIS TIME UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL STORM. THE KEY WEST AIRPORT REMAINS OPEN...BUT THERE MAY BE WEATHER RELATED DELAYS OR CANCELLATIONS. GREYHOUND BUS LINES CONTINUES TO OPERATE. ...MARINE IMPACTS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST WILL BUILD UP TO 12 FEET. ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST COULD BUILD UP TO 14 FEET. SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS WILL BUILD UP TO 7 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH SQUALLS TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A DECREASE IS LIKELY TOWARD EVENING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES TODAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... INTERMITTENT HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS MAY PRODUCE LOCAL STREET FLOODING AT TIMES. STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES WERE RUNNING ONE HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT KEY WEST. TIDES WERE NEAR NORMAL FURTHER UP THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT 1220 PM IN KEY WEST...AND 1109 AM AT VACA CUT. SIGNIFICANT STORM TIDE FLOODING WAS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...MINOR OVERWASH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED ROADWAYS ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE KEYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 200 PM EDT. $$ DEVANAS ** WTCA41 TJSJ 101524 CCA *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST VIERNES 10 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...ARLENE SE FORTALECE EN EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO... ...VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN Y AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EMITIDO PARA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLGO... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500Z...UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DESDE GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA HASTA ST MARKS FLORIDA...INCLUYENDO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A LAS 11 AM...UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN FUE EXPEDIDO DESDE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO PEARL HASTA PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ANTICIPADAS DENTRO DEL AREA DEL AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. NA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA DRY TORTUGAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO AL OESTE DE GRAND ISLE OUISIANA HASTA MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LAS 11 AM...EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA CUBA HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL CARIBE Y EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. LOS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE...DATA DESDE LOS AVIONES...Y OBSEVACIONES EN LA SUPERFICIE INDIDAN QUE EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.9 OESTE O COMO A 440 MILLAS...705 KM...AL SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI Y ALREDEDOR DE 470 MILLAS 760 KM AL SUR SURESTE DE PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE AHORA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE CON UN LEVE AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACCION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA EL CENTRO DE ARLENE SE ACERCARA A LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO PARA EL SABADO. SIN EMBARGO...LA MAYOR PARTE DEL MAL TIEMPO ASOCIADO CON ARLENE LLEGARA MUCHO ANTES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION ADICIONAL ES PROBABLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...ES POSIBLE QUE ARELENE ALCANZE INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN ANTES DE TOCAR TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES FUE DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES ADCIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 3 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LA PORCION CENTRAL Y OESTE DE CUBA. LLUVIAS GENERALIZADAS PRODUCIENDO CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS Y CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE SOBRE 7 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL SUR Y CENTRO DE FLORIDA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LLUVIA FUERTE ASOCIADA CON ARLENE ES PROBABLE QUE COMIENZE A PROPAGARSE A TRAVES DEL CENTRO Y ESTE DE LAS REGIONES COSTERAS CENTRALES DEL GOLFO DURANTE EL ANOCHECER DEL VIERNES. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN INUNDACIONES COSTERAS CON LA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 2 A 4 PIES SOBRE LO NORMAL...ACOMPANADO DE GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES...CERCA Y AL ESTE DE DONDE TOQUE TIERRA EL CENTRO DE ARLENE. LOS NIVELES DE LAS AGUAS ACTUALMENTE ESTAN MEDIO PIE SOBRE LA MAREA NORMAL OCURREN EN LA PARTE NORTE DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO. TORNADOS AISLADOS PODRIAN OCURRIR SOBRE PORCIONES DEL SUROESTE DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EST...24.0 N...84.9 O. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 60 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB/AVILA $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 101500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 101500UTC 32.0N 141.5E FAIR MOVE ENE 12KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 200NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 111500UTC 39.3N 150.1E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS84 KLIX 101605 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-049-050-056>070-MSZ080>082-101900- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1100 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE STRENGTHENS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FROM GRAND ISLE EAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES IN LOUISIANA... ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...JEFFERSON...LAFOURCHE...LIVINGSTON... ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD...ST CHARLES...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA AND TERREBONNE IN ADDITION....THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO ST MARKS FLORIDA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1000 AM CDT...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STROM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SHOULD BE ON GUARD LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...40 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS AND NEAR TIDAL LAKES SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT A HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...AS TROPICAL STORM ARLENE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...TIDE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RUN 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GREATEST THREAT OF COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL BE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...AND AREAS OF ST BERNARD...PLAQUEMINE AND ORLEANS PARISHES OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES. SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS MAY ALSO OCCUR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND GRAND ISLE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ...WIND IMPACTS.... EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 MPH AND HIGHER MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT LOWER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF ARLENE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130 PM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KMOB 101609 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-102230- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1100 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO ST MARKS FLORIDA... ...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA...THIS INCLUDES ALL OF THE ALABAMA COAST AS WELL AS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL APPROACH THE THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINES ON SATURDAY...WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE LIVING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF A STORM SURGE OF 6 FT OR SO WILL AFFECT THEM. EVACUATION OF SOME LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS SUCH AS BARRIER ISLANDS AND AREAS DIRECTLY ON THE GULF IS BEING RECOMMENDED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...LISTEN TO LOCAL TV OR RADIO FOR DETAILS ON AREAS AFFECTED OR FOR INFORMATION ON SHELTERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 6 FT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL FLOOD SOME HOMES ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE ELEVATION IS LOW...ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND ON SOME INLAND BAYS AND WATERWAYS. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY TO NEAR 60 MPH. IF ARLENE STRENGTHENS JUST A LITTLE BIT...SHE COULD BECOME A WEAK CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE WITH WINDS NEAR 75 MPH. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... BEGINNING TODAY...THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BECOME HIGH DUE TO INCREASING HIGH SURF AND STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING...SURFING...AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL ARLENE MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR JUST EAST OF ARLENE'S PATH. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG AREA RIVERS NEED TO MONITOR ARLENE'S EXACT PATH AS WELL AS WIND INTENSITY. ...TORNADO THREAT... AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO ARLENE'S DEVELOPMENT AND APPROACH. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE REGION AND WILL REMAIN AT A SOMEWHAT ELEVATED LEVEL UNTIL ARLENE MAKES LANDFALL AND MOVES WELL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. $$ MCKEE/CULLEN ** WTUS82 KTAE 101613 *** HLSTAE FLZ008-012-014-015-027-101930- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1127 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA... ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO ST MARKS FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INCLUDING WALTON...BAY...GULF...FRANKLIN...AND WAKULLA COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EASTWARD TO PANAMA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND EASTWARD TO ST MARKS. A FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 10 AM CDT...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE HAD REFORMED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 470 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE WAS MOVING NORTH NEAR 13 MPH AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 60 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE BAD WEATHER WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE CENTER. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE HEAVIER SQUALLS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF APALACHEE BAY. WINDS AT THE COAST WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 OR 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. THESE WINDS COULD BE HIGHER IF ARLENE STRENGTHENS OR MOVES FARTHER EAST THAN FORECAST. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WEST OF THE PANHANDLE...FLOODING IS STILL THE MAJOR CONCERN. WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE...WITH SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... IF THE STORM FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...THE STORM SURGE WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO 3 FEET. IF ARLENE INTENSIFIES AND MAKES LANDFALL FARTHER EAST IN THE WATCH AREA...THEN THE STORM SURGE COULD BE 4 TO 6 FEET...WHICH COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. LOCAL TIDES FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS... ST MARKS... TONIGHT: LOW 11:44 PM SATURDAY: HIGH 6:20 AM...LOW 11:11 AM EDT APALACHICOLA... TONIGHT: 5:16 PM EDT SATURDAY: LOW 1:46 AM EDT...HIGH 9:26 AM EDT...LOW 1:30 PM EDT PORT ST JOE... TONIGHT: LOW 11:53 PM SATURDAY: HIGH 1:12 PM SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY... TODAY: HIGH 12:08 PM...LOW 11:33 PM. SATURDAY: HIGH 12:39 PM...LOW 11:53 PM. ...RIP CURRENTS... ONSHORE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...AND A HIGH RISK ON SATURDAY. ...TORNADO THREAT... ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS ARLENE APPROACHES THE GULF COAST. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN NOW BEFORE THE WEATHER DETERIORATES. STORE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS OR YARD FURNITURE. POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR DUE TO STRONG WIND GUSTS. STOCK UP ON BATTERIES...FLASHLIGHTS...WATER...AND NON-PERISHABLE FOOD. HAVE CASH ON HAND...AS CREDIT CARDS AND ATM MACHINES MAY NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER. BOATS SHOULD BE MOVED TO A SAFE LOCATION. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY 230 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. $$ FOURNIER ** WTNT80 EGRR 101738 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.06.2005 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 84.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.06.2005 22.2N 84.6W MODERATE 00UTC 11.06.2005 25.4N 86.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.06.2005 27.9N 87.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.06.2005 30.3N 87.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.06.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 101738 ** WTNT31 KNHC 101754 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...ARLENE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO ST MARKS FLORIDA... INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HR. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE WILL ARRIVE MUCH EARLIER THAN THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ARLENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH...WERE RECENTLY REPORTED AT DRY TORTUGAS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING ARLENE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...BASED ON A SHIP OBSERVATION... IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH RAINS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO OVER 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...25.0 N... 85.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA $$