** WTIN20 DEMS 100630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 10-06-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER EAST AND SOUTH WEST AND WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 20 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 100600 UTC 00HR 30.9N 139.4E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NE 25KM/H P+24HR 35.6N 144.4E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTUS82 KEYW 100639 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-100930- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 230 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT WAS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST. THIS WAS ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. ARLENE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT AROUND 8 MPH. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OVER WESTERN CUBA THIS MORNING. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST WAS EXPECTED TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1001 MB...OR 29.56 INCHES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 40 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS EXISTED MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING WAS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK WAS OPEN TO VISITORS. CAMPGROUNDS IN THE PARK WERE CLOSED AND WILL RE-OPEN AFTER STORM PASSAGE. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL STORM. ...MARINE IMPACTS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC FROM OCEAN REEF TO DRY TORTUGAS WILL BUILD UP TO 10 FEET. SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS WILL BUILD UP TO 7 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH SQUALLS TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A DECREASE IS LIKELY TOWARD EVENING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE WAS A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES TODAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... INTERMITTENT HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS MAY PRODUCE LOCAL STREET FLOODING AT TIMES. STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES WERE RUNNING ONE HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT KEY WEST. TIDES WERE NEAR NORMAL FURTHER UP THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT 1220 PM IN KEY WEST...AND 1109 AM AT VACA CUT. SIGNIFICANT STORM TIDE FLOODING WAS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...MINOR OVERWASH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED ROADWAYS ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE KEYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 AM EDT. $$ DFM ** WTJP21 RJTD 100600 *** WARNING 100600. WARNING VALID 110600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0504 NESAT (0504) 990 HPA AT 31.1N 139.4E SOUTH OF HACHIJOJIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 33.3N 142.4E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 36.7N 146.2E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 44.5N 160.1E WITH 190 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 100600UTC 31.1N 139.4E GOOD MOVE NE 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 220NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 110600UTC 36.7N 146.2E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 23KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 120600UTC 44.5N 160.1E 190NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 100600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.22 FOR TS 0504 NESAT (0504) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100600 UTC IS GOOD. TS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS. TS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 36 HOURS.= ** WTNT71 KNHC 100840 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 26.2N 87.2W 42 1 X X 43 MOBILE AL X 17 7 1 25 28.5N 88.3W 5 26 X X 31 GULFPORT MS X 20 6 X 26 31.0N 88.8W X 15 9 1 25 BURAS LA X 24 3 X 27 MUSN 216N 826W 2 X X X 2 NEW ORLEANS LA X 18 5 1 24 MUAN 219N 850W 99 X X X 99 NEW IBERIA LA X 7 8 1 16 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 3 3 6 SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3 GALVESTON TX X X 1 2 3 CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X 7 4 1 12 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 2 3 GULF 29N 87W 1 22 2 X 25 ST MARKS FL X 1 4 3 8 GULF 28N 89W 9 21 X X 30 APALACHICOLA FL X 4 6 2 12 GULF 28N 91W 1 13 2 1 17 PANAMA CITY FL X 6 7 2 15 GULF 28N 93W X 1 3 1 5 PENSACOLA FL X 14 7 1 22 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 100840 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...ARLENE TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO THE CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THESE WARNINGS MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HR. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES... 15 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. ARLENE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES ...220 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUBA. GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION LATER TONIGHT. SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...21.6 N... 84.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 100840 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...ARLENE TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO THE CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THESE WARNINGS MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HR. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES... 15 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. ARLENE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES ...220 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUBA. GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION LATER TONIGHT. SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...21.6 N... 84.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 100841 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005 0900Z FRI JUN 10 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO THE CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THESE WARNINGS MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HR. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 84.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 84.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 84.7W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.4N 85.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.2N 87.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 28.5N 88.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.0N 88.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 37.0N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 42.0N 82.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 84.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 100849 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ARLENE HAS A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING... WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN A POORLY-DEFINED BAND NORTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED WIND CENTER...A 1000 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT AT 850 MB NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND IS REACHING THE SURFACE IS QUESTIONABLE...AS THE CONVECTION IN THE AREA IS SOMEWHAT ISOLATED AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH REPORTED 20 KT WINDS AT 06Z. HOWEVER...THESE FLIGHT-LEVEL ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40 KT. ARLENE HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT OVER THE PAST 6 HR AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 340/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD STEER ARLENE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 36-48 HR. DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE TRACK AND SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CALLING FOR ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HR FOLLOWED BY SOME SLOWING AS ARLENE APPROACHES THE COAST. THE NEW TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. ON THE STRENGTHENING SIDE...LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HR AS ARLENE MOVES OVER THE FAIRLY WARM WATERS OF THE LOOP CURRENT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE BROAD WIND STRUCTURE AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR ARLENE BOTH ARGUE AGAINST STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR THE STORM TO REACH 45-50 KT INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL... WHILE THE GFDL CALLS FOR A 64 KT INTENSITY AT LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS... CALLING FOR ARLENE TO REACH 55 KT BEFORE LANDFALL. THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 21.6N 84.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 23.4N 85.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 26.2N 87.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 28.5N 88.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 31.0N 88.8W 55 KT 72HR VT 13/0600Z 37.0N 87.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 14/0600Z 42.0N 82.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 120HR VT 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 100853 *** TCVAT1 ARLENE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 .TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ALC003-097-FLC005-033-045-091-113-131-LAC051-057-063-071-075-087- 089-095-103-105-109-MSC045-047-059-GMZ530-550-555-570-575-630-650- 655-670-675-750-770-101500- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1001.050610T0900Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 MORGAN-CITY-LA 29.48N 91.29W INDIAN-PASS-FL 29.68N 85.27W $$ GMZ033-075-101500- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W $$ ATTN...WFO...LIX...TAE...MOB...EYW... ** WTUS82 KEYW 100902 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-101230- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 530 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT WAS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST. THIS WAS ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. ARLENE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT AROUND 8 MPH. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WAS EXPECTED. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1000 MB...OR 29.53 INCHES OF MERCURY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 45 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS EXISTED MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SLOW STRENGTHENING WAS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK WAS OPEN TO VISITORS. CAMPGROUNDS IN THE PARK WERE CLOSED AND WILL RE-OPEN AFTER STORM PASSAGE. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL STORM. ...MARINE IMPACTS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC FROM OCEAN REEF TO DRY TORTUGAS WILL BUILD UP TO 10 FEET. SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS WILL BUILD UP TO 7 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH SQUALLS TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A DECREASE IS LIKELY TOWARD EVENING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE WAS A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES TODAY. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... INTERMITTENT HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS MAY PRODUCE LOCAL STREET FLOODING AT TIMES. STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES WERE RUNNING ONE HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT KEY WEST. TIDES WERE NEAR NORMAL FURTHER UP THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT 1220 PM IN KEY WEST...AND 1109 AM AT VACA CUT. SIGNIFICANT STORM TIDE FLOODING WAS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...MINOR OVERWASH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED ROADWAYS ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE KEYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 830 AM EDT. $$ DFM ** WTCA41 TJSJ 100908 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST VIERNES 10 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...ARLENE VIRA AL NORTE-NOROESTE Y SE INTENSIFICA UN POCO...VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA EL OESTE DE CUBA DESDE PINAR DEL RIO HASTA LA CIUDAD DE HABANA Y SUS PROVINCIAS ...INCLUYENDO LA ISLA JUVENTUD. ESTOS AVISOS PUDIERAN SER DESCONTINUADOS MAS TARDE HOY. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA DRY TORTUGAS. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DESDE MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HASTA INIDIAN PASS EN FLORIDA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL CARIBE Y EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM EDT...0900Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.8 OESTE O COMO A 10 MILLAS...15 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. ARLENE AHORA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CON UN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACCION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBE TRAER EL CENTRO DE ARLENE EN EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO HOY. REPORTES DE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICO QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UNA LENTA INTENSIFICACION ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES FUE DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA ASOCIADAS A LA TORMENTA ENTRE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS A TRAVES DE GRAN PARTE DEL OESTE Y EL CENTRO DE CUBA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS EN LOS TERRENOS ALTOS DE CUBA. EN GENERAL CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LO CAYOS DE FLORIDA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LLUVIA FUERTE ASOCIADA CON ARLENE ES PROBABLE QUE COMIENZE A PROPAGARSE A TRAVES DEL CENTRO Y ESTE DE LAS REGIONES COSTERAS DEL GOLFO TARDE ESTA NOCHE. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS EN LA COSTA SUR DE LA PARTE OESTE DE CUBA. TORNADOS AISLADOS PODRIAN OCURRIR SOBRE PORCIONES DEL SUROESTE DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EST...21.6 N...84.8 O. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 100928 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-046>050-056>070-MSZ080>082-101530- TROPICAL STORM****HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 430 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES IN LOUISIANA... ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...BATON ROUGE...IBERVILLE...JEFFERSON... LAFOURCHE...LIVINGSTON...ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD...ST CHARLES...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA AND TERREBONNE IN ADDITION....THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 400 AM CDT...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6 NORTH AND 84.8 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE ON GUARD LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...40 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS AND NEAR TIDAL LAKES SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. ACROSS INLAND AREAS...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. RESIDENTS ALONG RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...AS TROPICAL STORM ARLENE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...TIDE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RUN 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS ALONG THE COAST AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL WAVE ACTION WILL ALSO COMPOUND THE EFFECTS OF THE STORM SURGE. ...WIND IMPACTS.... EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 MPH AND HIGHER WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT LOWER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI EARLY SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1030 AM CDT. $$ ** WTUS84 KLIX 100928 *** HLSLIX LAZ038-040-046>050-056>070-MSZ080>082-101530- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 430 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY... ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI... ...AREAS AFFECTED... IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING PARISHES IN LOUISIANA... ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...BATON ROUGE...IBERVILLE...JEFFERSON... LAFOURCHE...LIVINGSTON...ORLEANS...PLAQUEMINES...ST BERNARD...ST CHARLES...ST JAMES...ST JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA AND TERREBONNE IN ADDITION....THIS STATEMENT IS PRIMARILY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN MISSISSIPPI... HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS ADJACENT TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 400 AM CDT...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6 NORTH AND 84.8 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE ON GUARD LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...40 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS AND NEAR TIDAL LAKES SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. ACROSS INLAND AREAS...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. RESIDENTS ALONG RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...AS TROPICAL STORM ARLENE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...TIDE LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RUN 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS ALONG THE COAST AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL WAVE ACTION WILL ALSO COMPOUND THE EFFECTS OF THE STORM SURGE. ...WIND IMPACTS.... EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 MPH AND HIGHER WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT LOWER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI EARLY SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ...NEXT UPDATE.... THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1030 AM CDT. $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 100900UTC 31.4N 140.2E GOOD MOVE NE 11KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 220NM EAST 160NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 110900UTC 37.5N 147.3E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 26KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 120600UTC 44.5N 160.1E 190NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS82 KTAE 100958 *** HLSTAE FLZ008-012-014-101400- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT (TAE) NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 600 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INCLUDING WALTON...BAY AND GULF COUNTIES. ...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...IN GULF COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND THROUGH SATURDAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 560 MILES SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA. ARLENE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM ARLENE... TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF THE PANHANDLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN POSSIBLE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS MAY BEGIN SATURDAY AROUND NOON. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF AROUND 40 MPH OR MORE WITH HIGHER GUSTS COULD PERSIST FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE'S ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. ...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION... THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...YET FLOODING IS A CONCERN. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE ENTIRE AREA CAN EXPECT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED THE PAST TWO WEEKS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...RESULTING IN MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS. RIVERS ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE APALACHICOLA...CHIPOLA... OCHLOCKONEE..ST MARKS AND WITHLACOOCHEE RIVERS ARE ALL RUNNING SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE BANKFULL LEVELS WHILE THE AUCILLA RIVER IS JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. FORTUNATELY THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER...THOUGH RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...STILL HAS PLENTY OF STORAGE ROOM IN THE HEADWATERS ABOVE WEST POINT. POOL ELEVATIONS BELOW WEST POINT INCLUDING GEORGE LOCK AND DAM AND WOODRUFF DAM ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. THE RIVERS CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGH CAN HANDLE TWO TO THREE INCHES OF BASIN WIDE AVERAGE RAIN BEFORE SIGNIFICANT MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED HIGH INTENSITY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN GENERATE SHARP LOCAL RISES NOT REFLECTED IN LONG RANGE RIVER FORECASTS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THE STORM CENTER WILL BE PASSING WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...AND LOCAL WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE DURING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. THIS WOULD CAUSE TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST OF WALTON...BAY AND GULF COUNTIES. RESIDENTS ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES AND HEED ADVICE FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES. LOCAL TIDES FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS... SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE... TODAY: HIGH/4:14 PM...LOW/10:29 AM AND 11:44 PM: SATURDAY: HIGH/6:20 AM AND 4:51 PM...LOW/11:11 AM APALACHICOLA... TODAY: LOW/12:33 PM...HIGH/9:01 AM AND 5:16 PM: SATURDAY: LOW/1:46 AM AND 1:30 PM...HIGH/9:26 AM AND 6:07 PM: PORT ST. JOE TODAY: HIGH/12:41 PM...LOW/11:53 PM SATURDAY: HIGH/1:12 PM SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY... TODAY: HIGH/12:08 PM...LOW/11:33 PM: SATURDAY: HIGH/12:39 PM...LOW/11:53 PM: ...RIP CURRENTS... ONSHORE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL SUPPORT STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND SATURDAY. ONLY EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS SHOULD CONSIDER ENTERING THE WATER. ...TORNADO THREAT... THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS ARLENE MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THE WARNING AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ARLENE MOVES INLAND ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PRECAUTIONS OUTSIDE YOUR HOME SHOULD BE STARTED NOW WHILE THE WEATHER IS STILL GOOD. IT MAY BE DANGEROUS TO WORK OUTSIDE SATURDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BLOW LOOSE ITEMS AROUND CREATING A HAZARD. STORE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS OR YARD FURNITURE. POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR OVER AREAS AFFECTED BY TROPICAL STORM WINDS. CHECK THAT YOUR BATTERY OPERATED RADIOS ARE WORKING. HAVE FLASHLIGHTS ON HAND ALONG WITH SPARE BATTERIES. ALSO...BE SURE TO HAVE CASH ON HAND...AS CREDIT CARDS AND ATM MACHINES MAY NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER. IF YOU OWN A BOAT...MOVE IT TO A SAFE LOCATION. ALL PEOPLE IN THE POTENTIAL PATH OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR LATEST FORECAST UPDATES AND ADVICE OR ORDERS FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON ARLENE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING. $$ BOLINSKI ** WTUS84 KMOB 101038 *** HLSMOB ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-101622- TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 537 AM CDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. FOR THE LATEST UPDATES REGARDING THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH...PLEASE REFER TO BHMNPWMOB. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 6 AM CDT...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE ON GUARD LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...40 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY EXPOSED TO TIDAL FLOODING. TIE DOWN REMAINING DEBRIS LEFT OVER FROM HURRICANE IVAN...AND ALSO...SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT MAY BE TOSSED ABOUT IN THE WIND. ACROSS INLAND AREAS...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. RESIDENTS ALONG RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR RIVER LEVELS AND THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS...WAVE ACTION AND RISING TIDE LEVELS WILL ACT IN CONCERT TO CREATE COASTAL EROSION. EXTENSIVE EROSION CAUSED BY HURRICANE IVAN REMAINS! THIS MAKES COASTAL AREAS VERY VULNERABLE TO BREACHES AND/OR GENERAL INUNDATION. HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 12 AND 2 PM BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. TIDE LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. INCREASED TIDE LEVELS COULD RESULT IN EXTENSIVE WASH-UP AND ADDITIONAL EROSION ALONG AREA BEACHES. THE LATTER IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FROM THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND TO JUST EAST OF NAVARRE. ...WIND IMPACTS... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE BEACHES AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SATURDAY AND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST PATH OF ARLENE... WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER INLAND SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA WEST OF INTERSTATE-65. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CEASE NO EARLIER THAN MID MORNING ON SUNDAY. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... BEGINNING TODAY...THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BECOME HIGH DUE TO INCREASING HIGH SURF AND STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING...SURFING AND RECREATIONAL BOATING UNTIL ARLENE MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR JUST EAST OF ARLENE'S PATH. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG AREA RIVERS NEED TO MONITOR ARLENE'S EXACT PATH AS WELL AS WIND INTENSITY. PLEASE SEE BHMFFAMOB FOR THE LATEST ON THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SITUATION. ...TORNADO THREAT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO ARLENE'S DEVELOPMENT AND APPROACH. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE REGION AND WILL REMAIN AT A SOMEWHAT ELEVATED LEVEL UNTIL ARLENE MAKES LANDFALL AND MOVES WELL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING. MEDLIN $$ ** WTNT31 KWNH 101138 *** TCPAT1 PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 10 FOR T.D. ARLENE NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD 11 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 TEST...TEST...TEST... ZIEGENFELDER $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 101146 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...ARLENE EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO THE CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THESE WARNINGS MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HR. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST...ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. ARLENE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...16 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...ARLENE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM WESTERN CUBA THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH... 90 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES ...220 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUBA. GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION LATER TONIGHT. SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...22.6 N... 84.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 55 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 101159 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM AST VIERNES 10 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...ARLENE ADENTRANDOSE EN EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA EL OESTE DE CUBA DESDE PINAR DEL RIO HASTA LA CIUDAD DE HABANA Y SUS PROVINCIAS ...INCLUYENDO LA ISLA JUVENTUD. ESTOS AVISOS PUDIERAN SER DESCONTINUADOS MAS TARDE HOY. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA DRY TORTUGAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DESDE MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HASTA INIDIAN PASS EN FLORIDA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL CARIBE Y EL ESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.8 OESTE O COMO A 50 MILLAS...80 KM...AL NORTE DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. ARLENE AHORA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...16 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CON UN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACCION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA ARLENE SE ESTARA ALEJANDO DEL OESTE DE CUBA ESTA MANANA Y SE ESTARA MOVIENDO EN EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO HOY Y ESTA NOCHE. REPORTES DE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ESTOS VIENTOS ESTAN CONFINADOS EN UNA PEQUENA AREA AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO. ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION ADICIONAL ES PROBABLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES FUE DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA ASOCIADAS A LA TORMENTA ENTRE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS A TRAVES DE GRAN PARTE DEL OESTE Y EL CENTRO DE CUBA...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS EN LOS TERRENOS ALTOS DE CUBA. EN GENERAL CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LO CAYOS DE FLORIDA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LLUVIA FUERTE ASOCIADA CON ARLENE ES PROBABLE QUE COMIENZE A PROPAGARSE A TRAVES DEL CENTRO Y ESTE DE LAS REGIONES COSTERAS DEL GOLFO TARDE ESTA NOCHE. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS EN LA COSTA SUR DE LA PARTE OESTE DE CUBA. TORNADOS AISLADOS PODRIAN OCURRIR SOBRE PORCIONES DEL SUROESTE DE LA FLORIDA Y LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EST...22.6 N...84.8 O. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...55 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB/AVILA $$