** WTCA41 TJSJ 100005 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 6A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM AST JUEVES 9 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...LA POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA ARLENE AFECTANDO LA PARTE OESTE DE CUBA CON FUERTE LLUVIA Y RACHAS DE VIENTOS... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA DRY TORTUGAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN VIGOR PARA EL OESTE DE CUBA DESDE PINAR DEL RIO HASTA LA CIUDAD DE HABANA Y SUS PROVINCIAS ...INCLUYENDO LA ISLA JUVENTUD. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL CARIBE Y EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM AST...0000Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.2 OESTE O COMO A 110 MILLAS...175 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. ARLENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE ARLENE DEBERA CRUZAR CERCA O SOBRE EL OESTE DE CUBA ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES. SIN EMBARGO...LA MAYOR PARTE DEL MAL TIEMPO ESTA AL PRESENTE LLEGANDO MUCHO ANTES DE LA LLEGADA DEL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA. SE ESPERA UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACCION Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS CONTINUAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA UNA MODESTA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM HACIA EL NORTE Y EL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA RECIENTEMENTE INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA ERA DE 1001 MILIBARAS...29.56 PULGADAS. LLUVIA FUERTE...ACOMPANADAS POR BREVES RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS...SE ESTARAN PROPAGANDO A TRAVES DEL OESTE Y CENTRO DE CUBA...HASTA EL EXTREMO SUR DEL ESTADO DE FLORIDA...ESPECIALMENTE LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y AL ESTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS POSIBLES EN LAS AREAS MAS ALTAS DE CUBA. EN GENERAL CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LO CAYOS DE FLORIDA. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS EN LA COSTA SUR DE LA PARTE OESTE DE CUBA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EST...20.4 N...84.2 O. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 091800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTUS82 KEYW 100011 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-100330- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 815 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY WEST TO OCEAN REEF... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION AND WIND IMPACTS. ADDED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. ARLENE IS A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS ARE ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS MEASURED AT 1001 MB...OR 29.56 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK CAMPGROUNDS ARE CLOSED...AND WILL RE-OPEN AFTER STORM PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE NATIONAL PARK IS NOT CLOSED TO VISITORS. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT PLAN TO ACTIVATE THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST BEYOND THE REEF ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 9 TO 12 FEET OVERNIGHT. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET...WITH SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS BUILDING TO 7 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD LISTEN TO ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS ARE GUSTING OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. OVERNIGHT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 34 KNOTS...39 MPH...OVER THE WATERS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND COASTAL WATERS...SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN SQUALLS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODIC RAIN SQUALLS... PRODUCING LOCAL STREET FLOODING AT TIMES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY IN THE LOWER KEYS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER MINOR OVERWASH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED ROADWAYS ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE KEYS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 200 AM. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1130 PM EDT. $$ RIZZO ** WTUS82 KEYW 100039 CCA *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-100330- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 815 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 CORRECTED TYPO IN MARINE IMPACTS SECTION ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY WEST TO OCEAN REEF... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION AND WIND IMPACTS. ADDED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. ARLENE IS A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS ARE ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS MEASURED AT 1001 MB...OR 29.56 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK CAMPGROUNDS ARE CLOSED...AND WILL RE-OPEN AFTER STORM PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE NATIONAL PARK IS NOT CLOSED TO VISITORS. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT PLAN TO ACTIVATE THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST BEYOND THE REEF ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 9 TO 12 FEET OVERNIGHT. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET...WITH SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS BUILDING TO 7 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS ARE GUSTING OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. OVERNIGHT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 34 KNOTS...39 MPH...OVER THE WATERS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND COASTAL WATERS...SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN SQUALLS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODIC RAIN SQUALLS... PRODUCING LOCAL STREET FLOODING AT TIMES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY IN THE LOWER KEYS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER MINOR OVERWASH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED ROADWAYS ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE KEYS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 200 AM. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1130 PM EDT. $$ RIZZO ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 100000 UTC 00HR 30.4N 138.8E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR NE 25KM/H P+24HR 34.6N 143.6E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 100000 *** WARNING 100000. WARNING VALID 110000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0504 NESAT (0504) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 990 HPA AT 30.4N 138.7E SOUTH OF HACHIJOJIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 170 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 32.2N 140.5E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 35.1N 143.9E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 43.4N 155.9E WITH 170 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0504 NESAT (0504) DOWNGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 100000UTC 30.4N 138.7E GOOD MOVE NE 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 200NM EAST 170NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 110000UTC 35.1N 143.9E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 20KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 120000UTC 43.4N 155.9E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTCA41 TJSJ 100005 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 6A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM AST JUEVES 9 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...LA POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA ARLENE AFECTANDO LA PARTE OESTE DE CUBA CON FUERTE LLUVIA Y RACHAS DE VIENTOS... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA DRY TORTUGAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN VIGOR PARA EL OESTE DE CUBA DESDE PINAR DEL RIO HASTA LA CIUDAD DE HABANA Y SUS PROVINCIAS ...INCLUYENDO LA ISLA JUVENTUD. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL CARIBE Y EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM AST...0000Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.2 OESTE O COMO A 110 MILLAS...175 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. ARLENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE ARLENE DEBERA CRUZAR CERCA O SOBRE EL OESTE DE CUBA ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES. SIN EMBARGO...LA MAYOR PARTE DEL MAL TIEMPO ESTA AL PRESENTE LLEGANDO MUCHO ANTES DE LA LLEGADA DEL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA. SE ESPERA UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACCION Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS CONTINUAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA UNA MODESTA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM HACIA EL NORTE Y EL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA RECIENTEMENTE INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA ERA DE 1001 MILIBARAS...29.56 PULGADAS. LLUVIA FUERTE...ACOMPANADAS POR BREVES RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS...SE ESTARAN PROPAGANDO A TRAVES DEL OESTE Y CENTRO DE CUBA...HASTA EL EXTREMO SUR DEL ESTADO DE FLORIDA...ESPECIALMENTE LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y AL ESTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS POSIBLES EN LAS AREAS MAS ALTAS DE CUBA. EN GENERAL CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LO CAYOS DE FLORIDA. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS EN LA COSTA SUR DE LA PARTE OESTE DE CUBA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EST...20.4 N...84.2 O. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 091800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 100000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.21 FOR TS 0504 NESAT (0504) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100000 UTC IS GOOD. TS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. TS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 100000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10 NAME TS 0504 NESAT ANALYSIS POSITION 100000UTC 30.4N 138.8E MOVEMENT NE 8KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 101200UTC 32.2N 140.7E WITHIN 55NM PRES/VMAX 992HPA 39KT 24HR POSITION 110000UTC 35.1N 144.0E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 33KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTUS82 KEYW 100039 CCA *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-100330- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 815 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 CORRECTED TYPO IN MARINE IMPACTS SECTION ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY WEST TO OCEAN REEF... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION AND WIND IMPACTS. ADDED RAINFALL IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 800 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. ARLENE IS A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS ARE ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS MEASURED AT 1001 MB...OR 29.56 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK CAMPGROUNDS ARE CLOSED...AND WILL RE-OPEN AFTER STORM PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE NATIONAL PARK IS NOT CLOSED TO VISITORS. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT PLAN TO ACTIVATE THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST BEYOND THE REEF ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 9 TO 12 FEET OVERNIGHT. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET...WITH SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS BUILDING TO 7 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS ARE GUSTING OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. OVERNIGHT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 34 KNOTS...39 MPH...OVER THE WATERS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND COASTAL WATERS...SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN SQUALLS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODIC RAIN SQUALLS... PRODUCING LOCAL STREET FLOODING AT TIMES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY IN THE LOWER KEYS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE KEYS. NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER MINOR OVERWASH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED ROADWAYS ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE KEYS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 200 AM. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1130 PM EDT. $$ RIZZO ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 100000 UTC 00HR 30.4N 138.8E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR NE 25KM/H P+24HR 34.6N 143.6E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTNT31 KNHC 100230 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 ...ARLENE SPREADING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO THE CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE SHOULD CROSS NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA EARLY FRIDAY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ACCOMPANIED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAINLY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES NORTH OF CUBA AND OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY THE FLORIDA KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUBA. GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...20.8 N... 84.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 100232 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005 0300Z FRI JUN 10 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO THE CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 84.3W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 84.3W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 84.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.6N 85.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.0N 86.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.7N 87.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.5N 88.6W...NEAR MS/AL COAST MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 36.0N 87.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 41.0N 82.5W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 84.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 100233 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.0N 86.3W 41 2 X X 43 PENSACOLA FL X 8 12 1 21 27.7N 87.9W 2 31 X X 33 MOBILE AL X 9 14 1 24 30.5N 88.6W X 12 12 1 25 GULFPORT MS X 13 12 1 26 MUSN 216N 826W 19 X X X 19 BURAS LA X 20 6 1 27 MUHA 230N 824W 5 1 X X 6 NEW ORLEANS LA X 12 11 1 24 MUAN 219N 850W 75 X X X 75 NEW IBERIA LA X 4 10 2 16 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 3 3 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 3 3 6 SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3 GALVESTON TX X X 1 2 3 CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X 5 6 1 12 TAMPA FL X X 1 1 2 GULF 29N 87W X 20 4 1 25 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 3 4 GULF 28N 89W 1 28 1 X 30 ST MARKS FL X X 4 4 8 GULF 28N 91W X 11 5 1 17 APALACHICOLA FL X 2 7 3 12 GULF 28N 93W X 1 2 2 5 PANAMA CITY FL X 3 10 2 15 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 100300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 044 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z1 --- NEAR 30.6N9 138.8E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 30.6N9 138.8E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 32.7N2 140.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 35.3N1 143.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 31.1N5 139.3E6. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYS- TEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAX- IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 14 FEET.// ** WTNT81 KNHC 100244 *** TCVAT1 ARLENE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 .TROPICAL STORM ARLENE GMZ033-075-100900- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W $$ ATTN...WFO...EYW... ** WTCA41 TJSJ 100254 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST JUEVES 9 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...ARLENE PROPAGANDO LLUVIA FUERTE Y RACHAS DE VIENTOS A TRAVES DEL OESTE DE CUBA... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA DRY TORTUGAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN VIGOR PARA EL OESTE DE CUBA DESDE PINAR DEL RIO HASTA LA CIUDAD DE HABANA Y SUS PROVINCIAS ...INCLUYENDO LA ISLA JUVENTUD. PROBABLEMENTE SE REQUIERA UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EL VIERNES EN LA MANANA PARA PORCIONES DE LA PARTE NORTE CENTRAL DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DESDE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL ESTE HASTA EL NOROESTE DE FLORIDA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL CARIBE Y EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.3 OESTE O COMO A 75 MILLAS...120 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. ARLENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE ARLENE DEBERA CRUZAR CERCA O SOBRE EL OESTE DE CUBA TEMPRANO EL VIERNES. SE ESPERA UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACCION ACOMPANADO DE UN GIRO HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS CONTINUAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS SIGUIENTES 24 HORAS...MAYORMENTE DESPUES DE QUE EL CENTRO SE MUEVA AL NORTE DE CUBA Y SOBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM AL NORTE Y AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA SE ESTIMA EN 1001 MB...29.56 PULGADAS. LLUVIA FUERTE...ACOMPANADAS POR BREVES RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS...SE ESTARAN PROPAGANDO A TRAVES DEL OESTE Y CENTRO DE CUBA...HASTA EL EXTREMO SUR DEL ESTADO DE FLORIDA...ESPECIALMENTE LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS A TRAVES DE GRAN PARTE DEL OESTE Y EL CENTRO DE CUBA. EN GENERAL CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LO CAYOS DE FLORIDA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS EN LA COSTA SUR DE LA PARTE OESTE DE CUBA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EST...20.8 N...84.3 O. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA MAS DETALLADA A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 100256 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECON DATA INDICATE THAT ARLENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. RECON REPORTED 1500 FT WIND OF 46 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AROUND 2115Z...BUT A SUBSEQUENT PASS THROUGH THE SAME AREA REVEALED ONLY 32 KT WINDS. SINCE THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SOME AND BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT. HI-RES VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECON DATA INDICATE MULTIPLE SMALL CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND INSIDE A LARGER WELL-DEFINED OUTER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS AN AVERAGE OF THESE VORTEX POSITIONS AND VERY CLOSE TO A 09/2324Z QUIKSCAT CENTER POSITION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/07. THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT POSITION WOULD SUGGEST THAT ARLENE MAY BE A LITTLE FARTHER WEST... BUT I HAVE OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO WHAT DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS AND WITHIN THE RECON VORTEX ENVELOPE. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON ARLENE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND THEN TURNING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS ANTICIPATED TURN IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONE BEGINNING TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SOUTHEASTERN U.S....AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ONE CONCERN IS THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE IS FORECAST TO GET PINCHED BETWEEN DIGGING TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS TYPE OF BLOCKING PATTERN OFTENTIMES RESULTS IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEING STRONGER...WHICH WOULD HELP TO NUDGE ARLENE A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT DATA HAS BEEN PUNCHING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND HAS TEMPORARILY ERODED MOST OF THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST... WHICH WILL BE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE GFDL BRINGS ARLENE UP 63 KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE TO 45 KT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE MODELS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 KT WHILE CONTINUING TO BACK...AND THAT SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 28-29C UNTIL LANDFALL BASED ON CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS...ARLENE COULD PEAK A LITTLE STRONGER BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS WHEN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE U.S. GULF COAST. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 20.8N 84.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 22.6N 85.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 86.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 27.7N 87.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 12/0000Z 30.5N 88.6W 55 KT...NEAR MS/AL COAST 72HR VT 13/0000Z 36.0N 87.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 96HR VT 14/0000Z 41.0N 82.5W 15 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 120HR VT 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 100304 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005 0300Z FRI JUN 10 2005 CORRECTED DATE-TIME AT 120 HOURS TO READ 15/0000Z A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO THE CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FRIDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 84.3W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 84.3W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 84.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.6N 85.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.0N 86.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.7N 87.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.5N 88.6W...NEAR MS/AL COAST MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 36.0N 87.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 41.0N 82.5W...REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 84.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 100307 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-100630- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1115 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY WEST TO OCEAN REEF... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION AND THE MARINE...WIND AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 305 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. ARLENE IS A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA EARLY FRIDAY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1001 MB...OR 29.56 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK CAMPGROUNDS ARE CLOSED...AND WILL RE-OPEN AFTER STORM PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE NATIONAL PARK IS NOT CLOSED TO VISITORS. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL STORM. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF THROUGH DRY TORTUGAS WILL BUILD UP TO 10 FEET EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS BUILDING TO 7 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. ...WIND IMPACTS... WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND TO OVER 40 MPH IN SQUALLS OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. EARLY FRIDAY...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 34 KNOTS...39 MPH...OVER THE WATERS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND COASTAL WATERS...SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN SQUALLS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...RAINFALL IMPACTS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODIC RAIN SQUALLS... PRODUCING LOCAL STREET FLOODING AT TIMES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY EVENING.. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ONE HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT KEY WEST..BUT REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FURTHER UP THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES THROUGHOUT THE KEYS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 200 AM. NO SIGNIFICANT STORM TIDE FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AROUND HIGH TIDE...MINOR OVERWASH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG EXPOSED ROADWAYS ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE KEYS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 230 AM EDT FRIDAY MORNING. $$ RIZZO ** WTCA41 TJSJ 100005 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 6A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM AST JUEVES 9 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...LA POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA ARLENE AFECTANDO LA PARTE OESTE DE CUBA CON FUERTE LLUVIA Y RACHAS DE VIENTOS... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA DRY TORTUGAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN VIGOR PARA EL OESTE DE CUBA DESDE PINAR DEL RIO HASTA LA CIUDAD DE HABANA Y SUS PROVINCIAS ...INCLUYENDO LA ISLA JUVENTUD. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL CARIBE Y EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM AST...0000Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.2 OESTE O COMO A 110 MILLAS...175 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. ARLENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE ARLENE DEBERA CRUZAR CERCA O SOBRE EL OESTE DE CUBA ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES. SIN EMBARGO...LA MAYOR PARTE DEL MAL TIEMPO ESTA AL PRESENTE LLEGANDO MUCHO ANTES DE LA LLEGADA DEL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA. SE ESPERA UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACCION Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS CONTINUAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA UNA MODESTA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM HACIA EL NORTE Y EL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA RECIENTEMENTE INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA ERA DE 1001 MILIBARAS...29.56 PULGADAS. LLUVIA FUERTE...ACOMPANADAS POR BREVES RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS...SE ESTARAN PROPAGANDO A TRAVES DEL OESTE Y CENTRO DE CUBA...HASTA EL EXTREMO SUR DEL ESTADO DE FLORIDA...ESPECIALMENTE LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y AL ESTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS POSIBLES EN LAS AREAS MAS ALTAS DE CUBA. EN GENERAL CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LO CAYOS DE FLORIDA. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS EN LA COSTA SUR DE LA PARTE OESTE DE CUBA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EST...20.4 N...84.2 O. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 091800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 100000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.21 FOR TS 0504 NESAT (0504) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100000 UTC IS GOOD. TS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. TS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 100300UTC 30.8N 139.0E GOOD MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 200NM EAST 170NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 110300UTC 36.2N 144.3E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 22KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 120000UTC 43.4N 155.9E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT41 KNHC 100256 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECON DATA INDICATE THAT ARLENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. RECON REPORTED 1500 FT WIND OF 46 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AROUND 2115Z...BUT A SUBSEQUENT PASS THROUGH THE SAME AREA REVEALED ONLY 32 KT WINDS. SINCE THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SOME AND BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT. HI-RES VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECON DATA INDICATE MULTIPLE SMALL CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND INSIDE A LARGER WELL-DEFINED OUTER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS AN AVERAGE OF THESE VORTEX POSITIONS AND VERY CLOSE TO A 09/2324Z QUIKSCAT CENTER POSITION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/07. THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT POSITION WOULD SUGGEST THAT ARLENE MAY BE A LITTLE FARTHER WEST... BUT I HAVE OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO WHAT DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS AND WITHIN THE RECON VORTEX ENVELOPE. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON ARLENE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND THEN TURNING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS ANTICIPATED TURN IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CYCLONE BEGINNING TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SOUTHEASTERN U.S....AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ONE CONCERN IS THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE IS FORECAST TO GET PINCHED BETWEEN DIGGING TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS TYPE OF BLOCKING PATTERN OFTENTIMES RESULTS IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEING STRONGER...WHICH WOULD HELP TO NUDGE ARLENE A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT DATA HAS BEEN PUNCHING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND HAS TEMPORARILY ERODED MOST OF THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST... WHICH WILL BE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE GFDL BRINGS ARLENE UP 63 KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE TO 45 KT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE MODELS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 KT WHILE CONTINUING TO BACK...AND THAT SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 28-29C UNTIL LANDFALL BASED ON CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS...ARLENE COULD PEAK A LITTLE STRONGER BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS WHEN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE U.S. GULF COAST. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 20.8N 84.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 22.6N 85.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 86.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 27.7N 87.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 12/0000Z 30.5N 88.6W 55 KT...NEAR MS/AL COAST 72HR VT 13/0000Z 36.0N 87.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 96HR VT 14/0000Z 41.0N 82.5W 15 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 120HR VT 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ ** WTKO20 RKSL 010000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0504 NESAT ANALYSIS POSITION 010000UTC 10.6N 143.0E MOVEMENT W 11KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 020000UTC 12.2N 139.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 030000UTC 14.0N 135.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 72HR POSITION 040000UTC 16.3N 133.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTKO20 RKSL 010000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0504 NESAT ANALYSIS POSITION 010000UTC 10.6N 143.0E MOVEMENT W 11KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 020000UTC 12.2N 139.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 030000UTC 14.0N 135.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 72HR POSITION 040000UTC 16.3N 133.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 62KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT80 EGRR 100523 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.06.2005 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.4N 84.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.06.2005 20.4N 84.1W WEAK 12UTC 10.06.2005 23.5N 85.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.06.2005 25.0N 86.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.06.2005 27.9N 88.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.06.2005 30.1N 88.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.06.2005 32.0N 88.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.06.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 100523 ** WTNT31 KNHC 100543 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005 ...ARLENE SPREADING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO THE CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 105 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE SHOULD CROSS NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA THIS MORNING. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ACCOMPANIED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAINLY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES NORTH OF CUBA AND OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY THE FLORIDA KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUBA. GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 100557 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM AST VIERNES 10 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...ARLENE PROPAGANDO LLUVIA FUERTE Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS A TRAVES DEL OESTE DE CUBA... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA DRY TORTUGAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA EL OESTE DE CUBA DESDE PINAR DEL RIO HASTA LA CIUDAD DE HABANA Y SUS PROVINCIAS ...INCLUYENDO LA ISLA JUVENTUD. PROBABLEMENTE SE REQUIERA UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA PARA PORCIONES DE LA PARTE NORTE CENTRAL DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO DESDE EL SURESTE DE LOUISIANA AL ESTE HASTA EL NOROESTE DE FLORIDA. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL CARIBE Y EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM EDT...0600Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.4 OESTE O COMO A 65 MILLAS...105 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. ARLENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE ARLENE DEBERA CRUZAR CERCA O SOBRE EL OESTE DE CUBA TEMPRANO EL VIERNES. SE ESPERA UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACCION ACOMPANADO DE UN GIRO HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS CONTINUAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS SIGUIENTES 24 HORAS...MAYORMENTE DESPUES DE QUE EL CENTRO SE MUEVA AL NORTE DE CUBA Y SOBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 115 MILLAS...185 KM AL NORTE Y AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA SE ESTIMA EN 1001 MB...29.56 PULGADAS. LLUVIA FUERTE...ACOMPANADAS POR BREVES RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS...SE ESTARAN PROPAGANDO A TRAVES DEL OESTE Y CENTRO DE CUBA...HASTA EL EXTREMO SUR DEL ESTADO DE FLORIDA...ESPECIALMENTE LOS CAYOS DE FLORIDA. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS A TRAVES DE GRAN PARTE DEL OESTE Y EL CENTRO DE CUBA. EN GENERAL CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LO CAYOS DE FLORIDA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS EN LA COSTA SUR DE LA PARTE OESTE DE CUBA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM EST...21.1 N...84.4 O. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$