** WTUS82 KEYW 091846 CCB *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-092130- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 245 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY WEST TO OCEAN REEF... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. INCLUDED TORNADO IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. ARLENE IS A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH AT NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK WILL CLOSE CAMPGROUNDS TODAY...AND RE-OPEN AFTER STORM PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE NATIONAL PARK IS NOT CLOSED TO VISITORS. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT PLAN TO ACTIVATE THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST BEYOND THE REEF ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET BY LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FEET THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS BUILDING TO 7 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE FORECASTS FOR FURTHER UPDATES. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 34 KNOTS BY LATE THIS EVENING...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ARE EXPECTED IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE OR TIDE IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OR DRY TORTUGAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM ARLENE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR TROPICAL STROM ARLENE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 PM EDT. $$ DEVANAS ** WTJP21 RJTD 091800 *** WARNING 091800. WARNING VALID 101800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0504 NESAT (0504) 985 HPA AT 29.7N 138.2E SOUTH OF HACHIJOJIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 31.4N 139.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 33.5N 142.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 41.0N 152.4E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 48.9N 169.0E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 091800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 091800UTC 29.7N 138.2E FAIR MOVE NE 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 220NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 101800UTC 33.5N 142.0E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 15KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 111800UTC 41.0N 152.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 27KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 121800UTC 48.9N 169.0E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 091800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 091800 UTC 00HR 29.6N 138.3E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR NE 20KM/H P+24HR 33.5N 142.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTUS82 KEYW 091901 CCB *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-092130- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 245 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY WEST TO OCEAN REEF... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. INCLUDED TORNADO IMPACTS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. ARLENE IS A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH AT NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK WILL CLOSE CAMPGROUNDS TODAY...AND RE-OPEN AFTER STORM PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE NATIONAL PARK IS NOT CLOSED TO VISITORS. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT PLAN TO ACTIVATE THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST BEYOND THE REEF ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET BY LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FEET THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS BUILDING TO 7 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE FORECASTS FOR FURTHER UPDATES. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 34 KNOTS BY LATE THIS EVENING...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ARE EXPECTED IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE OR TIDE IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OR DRY TORTUGAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM ARLENE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR TROPICAL STROM ARLENE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 PM EDT. $$ DEVANAS ** WTPN31 PGTW 092100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 043 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z8 --- NEAR 29.8N9 138.4E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.8N9 138.4E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 31.3N7 140.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 33.6N2 142.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 30.2N5 138.8E0. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4, 100900Z0 AND 101500Z7.// ** WTNT31 KNHC 092038 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 ...MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE ALREADY AFFECTING CUBA...SQUALLS GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO THE CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES... 180 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WILL CROSS NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...IS SPREADING ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY THE KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUBA. GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...20.2 N... 84.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 092039 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005 2100Z THU JUN 09 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO THE CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 84.2W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 84.2W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 84.2W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.5N 84.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.0N 86.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.5N 87.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...120NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.5N 88.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 34.5N 87.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 40.0N 83.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 84.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 092039 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ARLENE HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED AND IN FACT...THE CYCLONE LOOKS WEAKER THAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE SYSTEM AND THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION. IT IS ASSUMED THAT THERE ARE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...SO INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING ARLENE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING WHEN THE SHEAR RELAXES AS THE UPPER-TROUGH WEAKENS IN 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL THAT SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE SHEAR WITHIN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING. ARLENE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350 DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO BUILD...AND THAT PATTERN SHOULD FORCE ARLENE ON A NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...IT IS NOT AS FAST AS MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. IN SUMMARY...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OR PASS VERY NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. IT THEN WILL BE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHERE IT COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE...BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 20.2N 84.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 21.5N 84.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 24.0N 86.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 26.5N 87.3W 50 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 29.5N 88.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 34.5N 87.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 96HR VT 13/1800Z 40.0N 83.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 092039 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.0N 86.0W 41 X X X 41 APALACHICOLA FL X 3 10 2 15 26.5N 87.3W 3 26 1 X 30 PANAMA CITY FL X 3 12 2 17 29.5N 88.5W X 8 16 1 25 PENSACOLA FL X 3 16 2 21 MUSN 216N 826W 26 X X X 26 MOBILE AL X 2 18 2 22 MUHA 230N 824W 8 1 X X 9 GULFPORT MS X 3 17 2 22 MUAN 219N 850W 60 X X X 60 BURAS LA X 6 16 1 23 MMCZ 205N 869W 9 X X X 9 NEW ORLEANS LA X 2 17 2 21 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 NEW IBERIA LA X 1 11 4 16 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 1 3 4 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 3 6 9 SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4 GALVESTON TX X X 1 5 6 CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 FREEPORT TX X X 1 3 4 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 2 2 KEY WEST FL 1 X 1 X 2 GULF 29N 85W X 5 9 2 16 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 X 1 2 GULF 29N 87W X 12 12 X 24 FT MYERS FL X 1 X 1 2 GULF 28N 89W X 17 9 X 26 VENICE FL X 1 2 1 4 GULF 28N 91W X 5 12 1 18 TAMPA FL X 1 2 1 4 GULF 28N 93W X X 6 3 9 CEDAR KEY FL X 1 2 4 7 GULF 28N 95W X X 1 3 4 ST MARKS FL X 1 6 4 11 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 092043 *** TCVAT1 ARLENE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 .TROPICAL STORM ARLENE GMZ033-075-100300- /E.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 500 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W $$ ATTN...WFO...EYW... ** WTCA41 TJSJ 092100 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 6 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST JUEVES 9 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...LA MAYOR PARTE DEL MAL TIEMPO ASOCIADA CON ARLENE YA ESTA AFECTANDO A CUBA...TURBONADAS EXTENDIENDOSE GRADUALMENTE HACIA EL NORTE... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA DRY TORTUGAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN VIGOR PARA EL OESTE DE CUBA DESDE PINAR DEL RIO HASTA LA CIUDAD DE HABANA Y SUS PROVINCIAS ...INCLUYENDO LA ISLA JUVENTUD. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN DESCONTINUO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL CARIBE Y EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.2 OESTE O COMO A 115 MILLAS...180 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. ARLENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA...EL CENTRO DE ARLENE CRUZARA CERCA O SOBRE EL OESTE DE CUBA ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL VIERNES. SIN EMBARGO...LA MAYOR PARTE DEL MAL TIEMPO ESTA AL PRESENTE LLEGANDO MUCHO ANTES DE LA LLEGADA DEL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA. SE ESPERA UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACCION Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS CONTINUAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA UNA MODESTA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 H ORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KM HACIA EL NORTE Y EL ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ACABADA DE SER INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AERA ERA DE 1001 MILIBARAS...29.56 PULGADAS. LLUVIA FUERTE...ACOMPANADAS POR TURBONADAS...SE ESTAN PROPAGANDO A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...COMO TAMBIEN EN EL CENTRO Y OESTE DE CUBA Y HASTA EL EXTREMO SUR DE LA FLORIDA...ESPECIALMENTE SUS CAYOS. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y AL ESTE DE LA TRAYECTORIA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE HASTA 15 PULGADAS POSIBLES EN LAS AREAS MAS ALTAS DE CUBA. EN GENERAL CANTIDADES DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LO CAYOS DE FLORIDA. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN ALGUNAS INUNDACIONES COSTERAS EN LA COSTA SUR DE LA PARTE OESTE DE CUBA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EST...20.2 N...84.2 O. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1001 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 PM AST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA MAS DETALLADA A LAS 11 AST. PRONOSTICADORES AVILA/KNABB $$ ** WTUS82 KEYW 092119 CCB *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-100030- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 515 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY WEST TO OCEAN REEF... ...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 500 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. ARLENE IS A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY ARRIVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS MEASURED AT 1001 MB...OR 29.56 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK CAMPGROUNDS ARE CLOSED...AND WILL RE-OPEN AFTER STORM PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE NATIONAL PARK IS NOT CLOSED TO VISITORS. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT PLAN TO ACTIVATE THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST BEYOND THE REEF ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 9 TO 12 FEET OVERNIGHT. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET...WITH SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS BUILDING TO 7 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE FORECASTS FOR FURTHER UPDATES. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 34 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...ARE EXPECTED IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN SQUALLS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ...TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE OR TIDE IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OR DRY TORTUGAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM ARLENE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR TROPICAL STROM ARLENE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 830 PM EDT. $$ DEVANAS/RIZZO ** WTJP31 RJTD 092100 *** WARNING 092100. WARNING VALID 102100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0504 NESAT (0504) 985 HPA AT 29.8N 138.5E SOUTH OF HACHIJOJIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100900UTC AT 31.7N 139.7E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100UTC AT 34.4N 142.6E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 092100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 092100UTC 29.8N 138.5E FAIR MOVE NE 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 220NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 102100UTC 34.4N 142.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 111800UTC 41.0N 152.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 27KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 121800UTC 48.9N 169.0E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT31 KNHC 092356 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 ...POORLY ORGANIZED ARLENE AFFECTING WESTERN CUBA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO THE CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES... 175 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE SHOULD CROSS NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS ARE ALREADY MOVING ONSHORE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ACCOMPANIED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA... AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY THE FLORIDA KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUBA. GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...20.4 N... 84.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$