** WTSR20 WSSS 090600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA41 TJSJ 091213 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 4 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 AM AST JUEVES 9 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...REPORTES DE BARCO INDICAN QUE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO SE HA TORNADO EN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE...LA PRIMERA TORMENTA TROPICAL DE LA TEMPORADA 2005... A LAS 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC... EL GOBIERNO DE CUBA A EXTENDIDO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HACIA EL ESTE PARA INCLUIR LA CUIDAD DE HAVANA Y LA PROVINCIA DE HAVANA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO DESDE EL OESTE DE CUBA DESDE PINAR DEL RIO HASTA LA PROVINCIA DE HAVANA...INCLUYENDO LA ISLA DE JUVENTUD. LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL CARIBE Y EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 AM AST...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.0 OESTE O COMO A 185 MILLAS...295 KM...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 190 MILLAS...350 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. ARLENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL CON UN AUMENTO ADICIONAL EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO PODRIA TRAER EL CENTRO CERCA DEL OESTE DE CUBA ESTA NOCHE. UN REPORTE DE UN BARCO ENTRE EL CENTRO DE ARLENE Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN INIDCARON QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A 40 MPH...65KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN LENTO FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1002 MB...29.59 PULGADAS. LLUVIA FUERTE...ACOMPANADAS POR TURBONADAS...SE ESTAN PROPAGANDO A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...COMO TAMBIEN EN EL CENTRO Y OESTE DE CUBA. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN ESTAS AREAS ASOCIADAS CON ARLENE. LA HUMEDAD FLUYENDO DEL SUROESTE HASTA ARLENE ESTA PRODUCIENDO LLUVIAS MUY FUERTES SOBRE PORCIONES DE AMERICA CENTRAL...PARTICULARMENTE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTO DE LODO QUE AMENAZEN VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 AM EST...19.1 N...84.0 O. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 091200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 091200 UTC 00HR 29.1N 137.7E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR NE 25KM/H P+24HR 32.6N 141.9E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 37.6N 149.0E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 091200 *** WARNING 091200. WARNING VALID 101200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0504 NESAT (0504) 980 HPA AT 29.1N 137.7E SOUTH OF HACHIJOJIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 30.7N 138.4E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 32.2N 140.2E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 37.7N 148.2E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 47.9N 166.1E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 091200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 091200UTC 29.1N 137.7E GOOD MOVE NE 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 220NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 101200UTC 32.2N 140.2E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 111200UTC 37.7N 148.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 21KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 121200UTC 47.9N 166.1E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPN31 PGTW 091500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 042 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z2 --- NEAR 29.1N2 137.8E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.1N2 137.8E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 31.1N5 139.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 33.7N3 142.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 29.6N7 138.3E5. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPLETE BREAKDOWN OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2, 100300Z4 AND 100900Z0.// ** WTNT31 KNHC 091435 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 ...WEATHER SHOULD WORSEN OVER WESTERN CUBA TODAY AS ARLENE APPROACHES... AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES... 305 KM...WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 165 MILES... 270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK ARLENE THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...IS SPREADING ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ARLENE....MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...19.4 N... 84.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 091436 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005 1500Z THU JUN 09 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 84.1W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 84.1W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 84.0W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.8N 85.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.5N 87.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 34.0N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 38.5N 85.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 84.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 091437 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT ARLENE IS SOMEWHEAT SHEARED WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A RATHER STRONG CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND...WHERE MOST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING. THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SINCE YESTERDAY AND T-NUMBERS ARE 2.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THERE HAVE BEEN NO NEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE SHEAR MAY RELAX A LITTLE BIT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS. THIS COULD ALLOW ARLENE TO STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AS INDICATED BY SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS. THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS NOT WELL DEFINED...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE INITIAL MOTION. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 350 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND MAYBE A TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 19.4N 84.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 21.5N 84.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 23.8N 85.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 26.0N 86.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 28.5N 87.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 34.0N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 13/1200Z 38.5N 85.5W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 120HR VT 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 091438 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.8N 85.5W 43 X X X 43 ST MARKS FL X 1 10 3 14 26.0N 86.5W 7 25 X X 32 APALACHICOLA FL X 4 12 2 18 28.5N 87.5W X 13 13 X 26 PANAMA CITY FL X 3 14 2 19 MUSN 216N 826W 27 X X X 27 PENSACOLA FL X 2 16 3 21 MUHA 230N 824W 13 1 X X 14 MOBILE AL X 1 16 4 21 MUAN 219N 850W 60 X X X 60 GULFPORT MS X 1 15 4 20 MMCZ 205N 869W 6 1 X X 7 BURAS LA X 1 16 3 20 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 12 5 17 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 1 2 3 NEW IBERIA LA X X 5 8 13 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 1 5 6 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 1 6 7 SAVANNAH GA X X X 5 5 GALVESTON TX X X X 4 4 CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 FREEPORT TX X X X 3 3 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X 7 11 2 20 KEY WEST FL 1 2 X 1 4 GULF 29N 87W X 10 14 1 25 MARCO ISLAND FL X 2 X 1 3 GULF 28N 89W X 8 13 1 22 FT MYERS FL X 2 1 1 4 GULF 28N 91W X 1 10 3 14 VENICE FL X 3 3 1 7 GULF 28N 93W X X 2 5 7 TAMPA FL X 2 3 2 7 GULF 28N 95W X X X 3 3 CEDAR KEY FL X 1 6 3 10 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 091436 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005 1500Z THU JUN 09 2005 AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 84.1W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 84.1W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 84.0W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.8N 85.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.5N 87.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 34.0N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 38.5N 85.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 84.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 091437 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT ARLENE IS SOMEWHEAT SHEARED WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A RATHER STRONG CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND...WHERE MOST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING. THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SINCE YESTERDAY AND T-NUMBERS ARE 2.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THERE HAVE BEEN NO NEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE SHEAR MAY RELAX A LITTLE BIT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS. THIS COULD ALLOW ARLENE TO STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AS INDICATED BY SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS. THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS NOT WELL DEFINED...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE INITIAL MOTION. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 350 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND MAYBE A TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 19.4N 84.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 21.5N 84.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 23.8N 85.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 26.0N 86.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 28.5N 87.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 34.0N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 13/1200Z 38.5N 85.5W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 120HR VT 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 091438 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.8N 85.5W 43 X X X 43 ST MARKS FL X 1 10 3 14 26.0N 86.5W 7 25 X X 32 APALACHICOLA FL X 4 12 2 18 28.5N 87.5W X 13 13 X 26 PANAMA CITY FL X 3 14 2 19 MUSN 216N 826W 27 X X X 27 PENSACOLA FL X 2 16 3 21 MUHA 230N 824W 13 1 X X 14 MOBILE AL X 1 16 4 21 MUAN 219N 850W 60 X X X 60 GULFPORT MS X 1 15 4 20 MMCZ 205N 869W 6 1 X X 7 BURAS LA X 1 16 3 20 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 12 5 17 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 1 2 3 NEW IBERIA LA X X 5 8 13 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 1 5 6 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 1 6 7 SAVANNAH GA X X X 5 5 GALVESTON TX X X X 4 4 CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 FREEPORT TX X X X 3 3 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X 7 11 2 20 KEY WEST FL 1 2 X 1 4 GULF 29N 87W X 10 14 1 25 MARCO ISLAND FL X 2 X 1 3 GULF 28N 89W X 8 13 1 22 FT MYERS FL X 2 1 1 4 GULF 28N 91W X 1 10 3 14 VENICE FL X 3 3 1 7 GULF 28N 93W X X 2 5 7 TAMPA FL X 2 3 2 7 GULF 28N 95W X X X 3 3 CEDAR KEY FL X 1 6 3 10 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 091503 *** TCVAT1 WTNT81 KNHC 091500 TCVAT1 ARLENE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 .TROPICAL STORM ARLENE GMZ033-075-092100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1001.050609T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W $$ ATTN...WFO...EYW... ** WTNT81 KNHC 091504 *** TCVAT1 WTNT81 KNHC 091500 TCVAT1 ARLENE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 .TROPICAL STORM ARLENE GMZ033-075-092100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1001.050609T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W $$ ATTN...WFO...EYW... ** WTCA41 TJSJ 091507 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 5 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST JUEVES 9 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO DEBERAN DETERIORARSE SOBRE CUBA OCCIDENTAL A MEDIDA QUE ARLENE SE ACERCA... A LAS 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDO PARA DRY TORTUGAS. EL GOBIERNO DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN HA EMTIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA EL OESTE DE CUBA DESDE PINAR DEL RIO HASTA LA CUIDAD DE HABANA Y LAS PROVINCIEAS DEL HABANA...INCLUYENDO LA ISLA JUVENTUD. LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL CARIBE Y EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.1 OESTE O COMO A 190 MILLAS...305 KM...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 165 MILLAS...270 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. ARLENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL CON UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO PODRIA TRAER EL CENTRO CERCA O SOBRE EL OESTE DE CUBA ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EN EL VIERNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVION DE LA FUERZA AEREA INVESTIGARA ARLENE ESTA TARDE. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDE HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM HACIA EL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1002 MB...29.59 PULGADAS. LLUVIA FUERTE...ACOMPANADAS POR TURBONADAS...SE ESTAN PROPAGANDO A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...COMO TAMBIEN EN EL CENTRO Y OESTE DE CUBAY SE ADENTRARAN A LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN ESTAS AREAS ASOCIADAS CON ARLENE...MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EST...19.4 N...84.1 O. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 PM EDT SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA/KNABB $$ ** WTNT81 KNHC 091509 *** TCVAT1 ARLENE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 .TROPICAL STORM ARLENE GMZ033-075-092100- /E.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1001.050609T1500Z-000000T0000Z/ 1100 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 DRY-TORTUGAS-FL 24.66N 82.86W $$ ATTN...WFO...EYW... ** WTJP31 RJTD 091500 *** WARNING 091500. WARNING VALID 101500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0504 NESAT (0504) 980 HPA AT 29.4N 137.9E SOUTH OF HACHIJOJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 30.9N 138.5E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101500UTC AT 32.3N 140.6E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 091500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 091500UTC 29.4N 137.9E GOOD MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 220NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 101500UTC 32.3N 140.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 111200UTC 37.7N 148.2E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 21KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 121200UTC 47.9N 166.1E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTUS82 KEYW 091555 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-261200- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1155 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY WEST TO OCEAN REEF... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. ARLENE IS A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH AT NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK WILL CLOSE CAMPGROUNDS TODAY...AND RE-OPEN AFTER STORM PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE NATIONAL PARK IS NOT CLOSED TO VISITORS. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE NO PLANS TO ACTIVATE THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER AT THIS TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST BEYOND THE REEF ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET BY LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FEET THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS BUILDING TO 7 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE FORECASTS FOR FURTHER UPDATES. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 34 KNOTS BY LATE THIS EVENING...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ARE EXPECTED IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE OR TIDE IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OR DRY TORTUGAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM ARLENE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR TROPICAL STROM ARLENE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530PM EDT. $$ DEVANAS ** WTUS82 KEYW 091558 *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-092130- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1155 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY WEST TO OCEAN REEF... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. ARLENE IS A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH AT NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK WILL CLOSE CAMPGROUNDS TODAY...AND RE-OPEN AFTER STORM PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE NATIONAL PARK IS NOT CLOSED TO VISITORS. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE NO PLANS TO ACTIVATE THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER AT THIS TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST BEYOND THE REEF ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET BY LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FEET THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS BUILDING TO 7 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE FORECASTS FOR FURTHER UPDATES. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 34 KNOTS BY LATE THIS EVENING...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ARE EXPECTED IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE OR TIDE IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OR DRY TORTUGAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM ARLENE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR TROPICAL STROM ARLENE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530PM EDT. $$ DEVANAS ** WTUS82 KEYW 091607 CCA *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-092130- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1155 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY WEST TO OCEAN REEF... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. ARLENE IS A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH AT NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK WILL CLOSE CAMPGROUNDS TODAY...AND RE-OPEN AFTER STORM PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE NATIONAL PARK IS NOT CLOSED TO VISITORS. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE NO PLANS TO ACTIVATE THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER AT THIS TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST BEYOND THE REEF ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET BY LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FEET THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS BUILDING TO 7 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE FORECASTS FOR FURTHER UPDATES. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 34 KNOTS BY LATE THIS EVENING...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ARE EXPECTED IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE OR TIDE IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OR DRY TORTUGAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM ARLENE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR TROPICAL STROM ARLENE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530PM EDT. $$ DEVANAS/BS ** WTUS82 KEYW 091619 CCB *** HLSEYW FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-092130- TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1155 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005 ...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY WEST TO OCEAN REEF... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. ARLENE IS A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH AT NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES OF MERCURY. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK WILL CLOSE CAMPGROUNDS TODAY...AND RE-OPEN AFTER STORM PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THE NATIONAL PARK IS NOT CLOSED TO VISITORS. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE NO PLANS TO ACTIVATE THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER AT THIS TIME. ...MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST BEYOND THE REEF ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET BY LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FEET THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS BUILDING TO 7 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE FORECASTS FOR FURTHER UPDATES. ...WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 34 KNOTS BY LATE THIS EVENING...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ARE EXPECTED IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND COASTAL WATERS...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE OR TIDE IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OR DRY TORTUGAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM ARLENE. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR TROPICAL STROM ARLENE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530PM EDT. $$ DEVANAS/BS ** WTNT80 EGRR 091710 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.06.2005 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 84.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.06.2005 18.8N 84.0W WEAK 00UTC 10.06.2005 20.1N 84.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.06.2005 22.5N 85.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.06.2005 26.4N 87.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.06.2005 29.2N 87.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.06.2005 32.3N 88.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.06.2005 37.0N 87.6W EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 091710 ** WTNT31 KNHC 091737 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 ...ARLENE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...SQUALLS ALREADY APPROACHING THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND WESTERN CUBA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO THE CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES... 245 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. ARLENE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER MOST OF THE WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. DATA FROM RECENTLY INSTALLED NOAA BUOY...NUMBER 42056...NEAR THE CENTER OF ARLENE INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK ARLENE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...IS SPREADING ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ARLENE....MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...19.8 N... 84.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 091748 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 5A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 PM AST JUEVES 9 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...ARLENE CONTINUA POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA...TURBONADAS YA SE ACERCAN A LA ISLA JUVENTUD Y AL OESTE DE CUBA... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN VIGOR PARA DRY TORTUGAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN VIGOR PARA LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y PARA EL OESTE DE CUBA DESDE PINAR DEL RIO HASTA LA CUIDAD DE HABANA Y LAS PROVINCIEAS DEL HABANA...INCLUYENDO LA ISLA JUVENTUD. LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL CARIBE Y EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 PM AST...1800Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ARLENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.2 OESTE O COMO A 150 MILLAS...2405 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. ARLENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL CON UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...TRAEYENDO EL CENTRO CERCA O SOBRE EL OESTE DE CUBA ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EN EL VIERNES. NO OBSTANTE LA MAYORIA DEL MAL TIEMPO ASOCIADO CON EL SISTEMA LLEGARA MUCHO ANTES QUE EL CENTRO. UNA BOYA DE NOAA RECIENTEMENTE INSTALADO...NUMERO 42056...CERCA DEL CENTRO DE ARLENE INDICA QUE LA INTENSIDAD DEL CICLON NO HA CAMBIADO MUCHO...Y LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 40 MPH 65KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES.SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVION DE LA FUERZA AEREA INVESTIGARA ARLENE MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EXTIENDE HASTA 150 MILLAS...240 KM HACIA EL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1002 MB...29.59 PULGADAS. LLUVIA FUERTE...ACOMPANADAS POR TURBONADAS...SE ESTAN PROPAGANDO A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...COMO TAMBIEN EN EL CENTRO Y OESTE DE CUBAY SE ADENTRARAN A LOS CAYOS DE LA FLORIDA. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN ESTAS AREAS ASOCIADAS CON ARLENE...MAYORMENTE AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 PM EST...19.8 N...84.2 O. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA/KNABB $$