** WTIN20 DEMS 090610 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 09-06-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER EAST AND SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL, ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 20 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 090600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 090600 UTC 00HR 28.7N 137.2E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 70KM P12HR NE 25KM/H P+24HR 32.0N 141.0E 988HPA 25M/S P+48HR 37.0N 148.0E 992HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 090600 *** WARNING 090600. WARNING VALID 100600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0504 NESAT (0504) 975 HPA AT 28.5N 137.1E SOUTH OF HACHIJOJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 30.1N 138.6E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 31.6N 140.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 35.4N 145.3E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 43.2N 158.2E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 090600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 090600UTC 28.5N 137.1E FAIR MOVE NNE 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 240NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 100600UTC 31.6N 140.0E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 110600UTC 35.4N 145.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 120600UTC 43.2N 158.2E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 090600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.20 FOR STS 0504 NESAT (0504) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 090600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERA TE. STS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS. STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 66 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 090900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 041 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z5 --- NEAR 28.2N2 137.1E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.2N2 137.1E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 29.5N6 138.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 31.4N8 140.1E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 34.1N8 143.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 28.5N5 137.4E5. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN EROSION OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5, 092100Z2, 100300Z4 AND 100900Z0.// ** WTNT41 KNHC 090837 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT...OVER ALL...THE WIND FIELD OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS BETTER DEFINED THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION REMAIN AT LEAST 75 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE MAXIMUM WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT ARE 34 KT...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1002 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NEW NOAA BUOY 42056. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/7. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN INITIAL NORTHWARD MOTION... FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN 12-24 HR. THIS MOTION WILL LIKELY BRING THE SYSTEM NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 72 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SPEED BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER UKMET... NOGAPS...AND GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND UKMET...AND IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE BROAD WIND STRUCTURE...THE CURRENT LACK OF CENTRAL CONVECTION... AND SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL SUGGEST THAT INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL. INDEED...LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS RESPOND TO THIS BY FORECASTING ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING...WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL BOTH CALLING FOR WINDS TO REACH ABOUT 50 KT IN 36-48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SIMILAR STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK SHOWN HERE...BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE 2-3 DAY TIME FRAME...AS WELL AS THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 18.6N 83.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 20.0N 84.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 22.2N 84.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 24.7N 85.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 27.2N 87.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 31.5N 88.5W 40 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 13/0600Z 36.5N 87.0W 25 KT...INLAND $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 090837 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 22.2N 84.8W 41 X X X 41 ST MARKS FL X X 7 6 13 24.7N 85.8W 4 27 X X 31 APALACHICOLA FL X 1 11 4 16 27.2N 87.0W X 14 11 1 26 PANAMA CITY FL X 1 11 5 17 MWCG 193N 814W 2 X X X 2 PENSACOLA FL X X 12 7 19 MUSN 216N 826W 17 2 X 1 20 MOBILE AL X X 10 8 18 MUHA 230N 824W 3 7 1 X 11 GULFPORT MS X X 10 8 18 MUAN 219N 850W 43 X X X 43 BURAS LA X X 12 6 18 MMCZ 205N 869W 6 2 1 X 9 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 7 9 16 MARATHON FL X 1 X 1 2 NEW IBERIA LA X X 2 11 13 FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 8 8 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 GALVESTON TX X X X 6 6 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 1 3 4 FREEPORT TX X X X 4 4 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 1 4 5 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 3 3 SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4 GULF 29N 85W X 2 12 3 17 CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 87W X 3 16 2 21 KEY WEST FL X 2 2 1 5 GULF 28N 89W X 3 15 2 20 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 2 1 4 GULF 28N 91W X X 8 7 15 FT MYERS FL X 1 2 2 5 GULF 28N 93W X X 1 8 9 VENICE FL X 1 5 2 8 GULF 28N 95W X X X 4 4 TAMPA FL X X 5 3 8 GULF 27N 96W X X X 2 2 CEDAR KEY FL X X 5 5 10 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 090838 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 ...DEPRESSION SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MOVING A LITTLE FASTER... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH IN WESTERN CUBA. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER PARTS OF WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES... 295 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 225 MILES... 360 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN RAIN BANDS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...IS SPREADING ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE DEPRESSION IS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PARTICULARLY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...18.6 N... 83.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 090839 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005 0900Z THU JUN 09 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH IN WESTERN CUBA. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER PARTS OF WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 83.9W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 83.9W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 83.9W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.0N 84.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.2N 84.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.7N 85.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.2N 87.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.5N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 36.5N 87.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 83.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 090856 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST JUEVES 9 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TORNANDOSE LENTAMENTE MEJOR ORGANIZADA Y MOVIENDOSE UN POCO MAS RAPIDO... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE PINAR DEL RIO Y LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD EN EL OESTE DE CUBA. VIGILANCIAS O AVISOS PODRIAN SER REQUERIDAS PARA OTRAS PARTES DEL OESTE DE CUBA MAS TARDE HOY. LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL CARIBE Y EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE LA TORMENTA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 83.9 OESTE O COMO A 185 MILLAS...295 KM...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 225 MILLAS...360 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. LA DEPRESION AHORA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL CON UN AUMENTO ADICIONAL EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES...MAYORMENTE EN BANDAS DE LLUVIA BIEN AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA ERA DE 1002 MB...29.59 PULGADAS. LLUVIA FUERTE...ACOMPANADAS POR TURBONADAS...SE ESTAN PROPAGANDO A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...COMO TAMBIEN EN EL CENTRO Y OESTE DE CUBA. CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA ENTRE 5 A 10 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES EN ESTAS AREAS ASOCIADAS CON LA DEPRESION. LA HUMEDAD FLUYENDO DEL SUROESTE HASTA LA DEPRESION ESTA PRODUCIENDO LLUVIAS MUY FUERTES SOBRE PORCIONES DE AMERICA CENTRAL...PARTICULARMENTE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTO DE LODO QUE AMENAZEN VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EST...18.6 N...83.9 O. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 8 AM EDT SEGUIDO POR UNA ADVERTENCIA MAS COMPLETA A LAS 11 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 090900 *** WARNING 090900. WARNING VALID 100900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0504 NESAT (0504) 975 HPA AT 28.9N 137.5E SOUTH OF HACHIJOJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100UTC AT 30.4N 138.5E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100900UTC AT 31.7N 139.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 090900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 090900UTC 28.9N 137.5E GOOD MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 240NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 100900UTC 31.7N 139.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 110600UTC 35.4N 145.3E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 120600UTC 43.2N 158.2E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT61 KNHC 091048 *** TCUAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 650 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 A 09Z SHIP REPORT 130 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON ARLENE WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 091146 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 ...SHIP REPORT INDICATES TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ARLENE...THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 SEASON... AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO HAVANA PROVINCE...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES... 295 KM...WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 190 MILES... 305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT. A REPORT FROM A SHIP BETWEEN THE CENTER OF ARLENE AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS INDICATES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES ...240 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...IS SPREADING ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ARLENE. MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO ARLENE IS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PARTICULARLY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...19.1 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 091146 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005 1200Z THU JUN 09 2005 AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO HAVANA PROVINCE...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 84.0W AT 09/1200Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 84.0W AT 09/1200Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 83.9W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.0N 84.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.2N 84.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.7N 85.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.2N 87.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.5N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 36.5N 87.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 84.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 091147 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARELENE SPECIAL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 22.2N 84.8W 40 1 X X 41 ST MARKS FL X X 6 6 12 24.7N 85.8W 3 29 X X 32 APALACHICOLA FL X X 11 4 15 27.2N 87.0W X 13 12 1 26 PANAMA CITY FL X X 11 6 17 MWCG 193N 814W 3 X X X 3 PENSACOLA FL X X 12 6 18 MUSN 216N 826W 18 2 X X 20 MOBILE AL X X 10 8 18 MUHA 230N 824W 3 7 1 X 11 GULFPORT MS X X 9 9 18 MUAN 219N 850W 43 X X X 43 BURAS LA X X 11 7 18 MMCZ 205N 869W 6 2 1 X 9 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 7 9 16 MARATHON FL X X 1 1 2 NEW IBERIA LA X X 2 10 12 FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 7 7 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 GALVESTON TX X X X 5 5 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 FREEPORT TX X X X 4 4 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 5 5 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 2 2 SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3 GULF 29N 85W X 1 12 4 17 CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 87W X 2 17 2 21 KEY WEST FL X 2 2 X 4 GULF 28N 89W X 2 15 3 20 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 1 2 4 GULF 28N 91W X X 7 7 14 FT MYERS FL X 1 2 2 5 GULF 28N 93W X X 1 7 8 VENICE FL X 1 4 3 8 GULF 28N 95W X X X 4 4 TAMPA FL X X 4 4 8 GULF 27N 96W X X X 2 2 CEDAR KEY FL X X 4 5 9 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 091147 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 SHIP 3FFL8 REPORTED 40 KT WINDS WHILE LOCATED ABOUT 130 N MI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE. A QUALITY CONTROL CHECK BY THE OCEAN PREDICITON CENTER SUGGESTED THIS REPORT WAS ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH...BUT STILL OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE. BASED ON THIS A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPGRADE TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE TO TROPICAL STORM ARLENE. THE SHIP REPORT REQUIRES A 130 N MI WIND RADIUS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...WHICH IS CARRIED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXPANDED WIND RADIUS REQUIRES THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CUBA TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD. THERE ARE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1200Z 19.1N 84.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 20.0N 84.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 22.2N 84.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 24.7N 85.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 27.2N 87.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 31.5N 88.5W 40 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 13/0600Z 36.5N 87.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 120HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$