** WTSR20 WSSS 081800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 090000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 090000 UTC 00HR 27.4N 136.8E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 70KM P12HR NE 20KM/H P+24HR 31.6N 140.6E 988HPA 25M/S P+48HR 36.0N 146.0E 992HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 090000 *** WARNING 090000. WARNING VALID 100000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0504 NESAT (0504) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 975 HPA AT 27.4N 136.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 30.3N 139.8E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 33.6N 144.0E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 41.0N 155.0E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 090000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0504 NESAT (0504) DOWNGRADED FROM TY ANALYSIS PSTN 090000UTC 27.4N 136.8E FAIR MOVE NE 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 240NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 100000UTC 30.3N 139.8E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 110000UTC 33.6N 144.0E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 120000UTC 41.0N 155.0E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 090000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 090000 UTC 00HR 27.4N 136.8E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 70KM P12HR NE 20KM/H P+24HR 31.6N 140.6E 988HPA 25M/S P+48HR 36.0N 146.0E 992HPA 20M/S= ** WTCA41 TJSJ 090108 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM AST MIERCOLES 8 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE SOBRE EL CARIBE NOROCCIDENTAL... ESTA EN EFECTO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL OCCIDENTE DE CUBA PARA LA PROVINCIA DEL PINAR DEL RIO Y LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. LOS INTERESES EN EL CARIBE NOROCCIDENTAL DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION DE LA FORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOSOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM AST...0000Z...EL POBREMENTE DEFINIDO CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.0 OESTE O COMO A 215 MILLAS...350 KM...AL SUROESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 305 MILLAS...490 KM...AL SUR DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...10 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL ESTA NOCHE Y EL JUEES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES...MAYORMENTE EN BANDAS DE LLUVIA AL NORTE Y AL ESTE DEL CENTRO. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO...Y LA DEPRESION TIENE EL POTENCIAL PARA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL MEDIDA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ERA DE 1003 MB...29.62 PULGADAS. LLUVIA FUERTE...ACOMPANADA POR TURBONADAS...DEBERAN A COMENZAR A EXTENDERSE A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN Y EL OCCIDENTE DE CUBA ESTA NOCHE Y EL JUEVES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM AST...17.4 N...84.0 O. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTKO20 RKSL 090000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9 NAME STS 0504 NESAT ANALYSIS POSITION 090000UTC 27.4N 136.8E MOVEMENT NE 10KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 100000UTC 30.5N 139.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 110000UTC 34.6N 144.8E WITHIN 160NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 33KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 090000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.19 FOR STS 0504 NESAT (0504) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 090000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERA TE. STS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS. STS WILL BE TRANSFORMED TO EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 66 HOURS.= ** WTNT31 KNHC 090228 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN... AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... 340 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 290 MILES... 470 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN RAIN BANDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE DEPRESSION IS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PARTICULARLY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N... 83.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 090228 *** SPFAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 21.0N 84.6W 41 1 X X 42 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 6 7 23.5N 85.7W 4 28 X X 32 ST MARKS FL X X 1 8 9 25.8N 86.8W X 14 10 X 24 APALACHICOLA FL X X 3 9 12 MWCG 193N 814W 5 1 X X 6 PANAMA CITY FL X X 3 10 13 MUSN 216N 826W 12 7 X X 19 PENSACOLA FL X X 3 12 15 MUHA 230N 824W 1 8 2 X 11 MOBILE AL X X 3 12 15 MUAN 219N 850W 28 9 X X 37 GULFPORT MS X X 3 12 15 MMCZ 205N 869W 16 4 X X 20 BURAS LA X X 6 10 16 MMMD 210N 897W X X 1 1 2 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 3 11 14 MARATHON FL X X 1 2 3 NEW IBERIA LA X X 1 11 12 MIAMI FL X X X 2 2 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 7 7 FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 GALVESTON TX X X X 5 5 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 FREEPORT TX X X X 4 4 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 2 2 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 4 4 GULF 29N 85W X X 5 8 13 SAVANNAH GA X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 87W X X 10 7 17 KEY WEST FL X 1 2 2 5 GULF 28N 89W X X 12 6 18 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 1 4 5 GULF 28N 91W X X 4 9 13 FT MYERS FL X X 1 4 5 GULF 28N 93W X X X 8 8 VENICE FL X X 2 5 7 GULF 28N 95W X X X 4 4 TAMPA FL X X 1 6 7 GULF 27N 96W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 090228 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005 0300Z THU JUN 09 2005 AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 83.9W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 83.9W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 83.9W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 18.7N 84.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.0N 84.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.5N 85.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.8N 86.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.5N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 35.0N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...INLAND...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 83.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 090230 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005 DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED...WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THEY DID REPORT ONE 35 KT WIND AT THE 1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL...ON THEIR LAST OUTBOUND LEG ABOUT 70 N MI NE OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THAT OBSERVATION...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND THE BANDING FEATURES WARRANT ONLY A T1.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 90W... CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SOME ABATEMENT OF THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED BUT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE GFDL FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHWARD...005/05. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL BEND IN HEADING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE LATEST GFDL TRACK AND SIMILAR TO THE DEEP-LAYER BAM TRACK. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK SHOWN HERE...BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE 2-3 DAY TIME FRAME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 17.6N 83.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/1200Z 18.7N 84.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 10/0000Z 21.0N 84.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 10/1200Z 23.5N 85.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 11/0000Z 25.8N 86.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 12/0000Z 30.5N 88.5W 50 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 13/0000Z 35.0N 88.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 14/0000Z...INLAND...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 090300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 040 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 04W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z9 --- NEAR 27.4N3 136.5E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.4N3 136.5E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 29.0N1 138.0E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 31.5N9 139.9E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 34.7N4 143.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 27.8N7 136.9E9. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8, 091500Z5, 092100Z2 AND 100300Z4.// ** WTCA41 TJSJ 090239 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MIERCOLES 8 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE SOBRE LA PARTE NOROESTE DEL CARIBE... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL GOBIERNO DE CUBA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA PARTE OESTE DE CUBA PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE PINAR DEL RIO Y LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. LOS INTERESES EN EL CARIBE NOROCCIDENTAL DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION DE LA FORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL POBREMENTE DEFINIDO CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 83.9 OESTE O COMO A 210 MILLAS...340 KM...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 290 MILLAS...470 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...10 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES...MAYORMENTE EN BANDAS DE LLUVIA AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL EL JUEVES. LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL MEDIDA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ERA DE 1003 MB...29.62 PULGADAS. LA HUMEDAD FLUYENDO DEL SUROESTE HASTA LA DEPRESION ESTA PRODUCIENDO LLUVIAS MUY FUERTES SOBRE PORCIONES DE AMERICA CENTRAL...PARTICULARMENTE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTO DE LODO QUE AMENAZEN VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...17.6 N...83.9 O. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MB. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM AST SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA MAS DETALLADA A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTJP31 RJTD 090300 *** WARNING 090300. WARNING VALID 100300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0504 NESAT (0504) 975 HPA AT 28.0N 137.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 30.9N 140.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 090300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 090300UTC 28.0N 137.0E FAIR MOVE NNE 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 240NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 100300UTC 30.9N 140.0E 100NM 70% MOVE NE 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 110000UTC 33.6N 144.0E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 18KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 120000UTC 41.0N 155.0E 290NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW = ** WTNT80 EGRR 090500 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.06.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 84.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 09.06.2005 17.7N 84.1W WEAK 12UTC 09.06.2005 18.9N 84.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.06.2005 21.0N 85.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.06.2005 23.5N 85.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.06.2005 26.2N 87.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.06.2005 28.9N 88.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.06.2005 31.9N 88.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.06.2005 35.5N 88.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.06.2005 38.7N 86.9W WEAK DISSIPATING THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 090500 ** WTNT31 KNHC 090538 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005 ...POORLY-ORGANIZED DEPRESSION CONTINUES SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH IN WESTERN CUBA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES... 335 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 285 MILES... 465 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN RAIN BANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...NOAA BUOY 42056 REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 36 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...IS SPREADING ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND SHOULD SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.. MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE DEPRESSION IS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PARTICULARLY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...17.8 N... 83.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 090557 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 2 AM AST JUEVES 9 DE JUNIO DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE SOBRE LA PARTE NOROESTE DEL CARIBE... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LAS PROVINCIAS DE PINAR DEL RIO Y LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD EN EL OESTE DE CUBA. LOS INTERESES EN EL NOROESTE DEL CARIBE DEBEN SEGUIR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICAMENTE PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA TIERRA...FAVOR DE SEGUIR DE CERCA VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 2 AM AST...0600Z...EL POBREMENTE DEFINIDO CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL UNO ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 83.9 OESTE O COMO A 205 MILLAS...335 KM...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE GRAND CAYMAN Y COMO A 285 MILLAS...465 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DEL EXTREMO OESTE DE CUBA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL CON UN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES...MAYORMENTE EN BANDAS DE LLUVIA AL NORTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE HOY. DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS...LA BOYA DE LA NOAA 42056 REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 36 MPH CN RAFAGAS DE 40 MPH. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ERA DE 1003 MB...29.62 PULGADAS. LLUVIA FUERTE...ACOMPANADAS POR TURBONADAS...SE ESTAN PROPAGANDO A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN...Y PUDIERAN PROPAGARSE HACIA EL OESTE DE CUBA MAS TARDE HOY. LA HUMEDAD FLUYENDO DEL SUROESTE HASTA LA DEPRESION ESTA PRODUCIENDO LLUVIAS MUY FUERTES SOBRE PORCIONES DE AMERICA CENTRAL...PARTICULARMENTE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTO DE LODO QUE AMENAZEN VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 2 AM AST...17.8 N...83.9 O. SE MUEVE HACIA EL...NORTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$