** WTSR20 WSSS 080600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 081200 *** WARNING 081200. WARNING VALID 091200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 970 HPA AT 26.1N 135.4E EAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 29.0N 138.0E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 31.5N 140.5E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 34.5N 144.0E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 081200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 081200UTC 26.1N 135.4E GOOD MOVE NE 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 091200UTC 29.0N 138.0E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 101200UTC 31.5N 140.5E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 111200UTC 34.5N 144.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 081200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 081200 UTC 00HR 26.0N 135.3E 965HPA 38M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NE 20KM/H P+24HR 29.1N 138.2E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 32.5N 141.5E 988HPA 25M/S P+72HR 37.0N 147.0E 992HPA 18M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 081500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 038 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z1 --- NEAR 26.1N9 135.0E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.1N9 135.0E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 27.9N8 136.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 30.3N6 139.5E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 33.2N8 143.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 30 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 37.4N4 148.3E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 26.5N3 135.5E4. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 26 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMA- TION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1, 090300Z2, 090900Z8 AND 091500Z5.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 081500 *** WARNING 081500. WARNING VALID 091500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 970 HPA AT 26.5N 135.7E EAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 29.2N 138.2E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 081500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 081500UTC 26.5N 135.7E GOOD MOVE NE 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 091500UTC 29.2N 138.2E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 101200UTC 31.5N 140.5E 160NM 70% MOVE NE 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 111200UTC 34.5N 144.0E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 081715 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.06.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 15.9N 84.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 09.06.2005 15.9N 84.3W WEAK 12UTC 09.06.2005 17.4N 85.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.06.2005 18.4N 85.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.06.2005 21.3N 86.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.06.2005 24.3N 86.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.06.2005 27.4N 88.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.06.2005 29.5N 88.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.06.2005 32.9N 88.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.06.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 081715