** WTIN20 DEMS 080650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 08-06-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL,ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 20 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP21 RJTD 080600 *** WARNING 080600. WARNING VALID 090600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 960 HPA AT 25.6N 134.3E EAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 28.2N 137.5E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 30.8N 139.4E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 33.8N 142.2E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 080600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 080600UTC 25.6N 134.3E GOOD MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 090600UTC 28.2N 137.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NE 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 100600UTC 30.8N 139.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 110600UTC 33.8N 142.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 080600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 080600 UTC 00HR 25.6N 134.3E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NE 15KM/H P+24HR 27.8N 136.2E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 31.0N 139.6E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 34.0N 143.6E 992HPA 20M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 080900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 037 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z4 --- NEAR 25.4N1 134.3E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.4N1 134.3E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 26.5N3 135.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 27.9N8 136.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 30.0N3 138.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 32.0N5 141.3E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 37.3N3 148.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 25.7N4 134.6E4. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM WEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 29 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4, 082100Z1, 090300Z2 AND 090900Z8.// ** WTPQ30 RJTD 080600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 0504 NESAT (0504) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 080600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTJP31 RJTD 080900 *** WARNING 080900. WARNING VALID 090900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 960 HPA AT 25.9N 134.7E EAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900UTC AT 28.5N 137.6E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 080900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 080900UTC 25.9N 134.7E GOOD MOVE NE 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 090900UTC 28.5N 137.6E 90NM 70% MOVE NE 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 100600UTC 30.8N 139.4E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 110600UTC 33.8N 142.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT =