** WTSR20 WSSS 071800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 080000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 080000 UTC 00HR 25.0N 133.9E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR NNE 15KM/H P+24HR 27.6N 135.6E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 30.2N 138.8E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 33.0N 143.0E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 080000 *** WARNING 080000. WARNING VALID 090000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 955 HPA AT 25.0N 133.9E EAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 27.3N 136.5E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 29.2N 138.1E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 31.1N 140.2E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 080000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 080000UTC 25.0N 133.9E GOOD MOVE NNE 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 65NM 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 090000UTC 27.3N 136.5E 90NM 70% MOVE NE 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 100000UTC 29.2N 138.1E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 110000UTC 31.1N 140.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 080000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 0504 NESAT (0504) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 080000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 080000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME TY 0504 NESAT ANALYSIS POSITION 080000UTC 25.0N 133.9E MOVEMENT NNE 6KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 090000UTC 27.3N 135.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT 48HR POSITION 100000UTC 29.0N 137.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT 72HR POSITION 110000UTC 31.3N 140.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 080300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 036 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z8 --- NEAR 24.9N5 133.9E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N5 133.9E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 26.1N9 134.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 27.4N3 135.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 29.1N2 137.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 32.0N5 140.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 37.1N1 146.8E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 26 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 43.5N2 157.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 25.2N9 134.0E8. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS 32 FEET. REFER TO WWPN30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7, 081500Z4, 082100Z1 AND 090300Z2. ** WTJP31 RJTD 080300 *** WARNING 080300. WARNING VALID 090300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 955 HPA AT 25.2N 134.1E EAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 27.5N 136.6E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 080300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 080300UTC 25.2N 134.1E GOOD MOVE NE 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 65NM 30KT 220NM FORECAST 24HF 090300UTC 27.5N 136.6E 90NM 70% MOVE NE 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 100000UTC 29.2N 138.1E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 110000UTC 31.1N 140.2E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 080000 *** TYPHOON WARNING 22 (FINAL) AT 0000 08 JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT)(0504) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT NINE EAST MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE SEVEN METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METER PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 090000 TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT SEVEN EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING FROM WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 080000 *** TYPHOON WWRNING 22 FINAL AT 0000 08 JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT) (0504) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DAT AT (25.0N 133.9E) MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE SEVEN METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 090000 TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT SEVEN EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING FROM WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTNT80 EGRR 080501 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.06.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 20.7N 84.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.06.2005 20.7N 84.5W WEAK 12UTC 10.06.2005 21.5N 85.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.06.2005 25.2N 86.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.06.2005 27.1N 88.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.06.2005 28.7N 89.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.06.2005 29.8N 90.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.06.2005 32.1N 90.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.06.2005 34.2N 90.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.06.2005 35.7N 89.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 080501