** WTPQ20 BABJ 071800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 071800 UTC 00HR 24.4N 133.7E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR NNE 15KM/H P+24HR 26.7N 135.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 29.7N 138.0E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 32.2N 141.4E 988HPA 25M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 071800 *** WARNING 071800. WARNING VALID 081800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 955 HPA AT 24.4N 133.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 26.8N 136.0E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 28.5N 137.8E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 30.4N 140.3E WITH 290 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 071800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 071800UTC 24.4N 133.7E GOOD MOVE N 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 65NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 081800UTC 26.8N 136.0E 90NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 091800UTC 28.5N 137.8E 160NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 101800UTC 30.4N 140.3E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 072100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 035 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z6 --- NEAR 24.4N0 133.8E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N0 133.8E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 25.5N2 133.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 26.9N7 134.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 28.9N9 136.7E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 31.5N9 139.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 36.5N4 145.6E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 26 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z1 --- 42.8N4 156.2E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 24.7N3 133.8E5. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM WEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 34 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1, 080900Z7, 081500Z4 AND 082100Z1. ** WTJP31 RJTD 072100 *** WARNING 072100. WARNING VALID 082100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 955 HPA AT 24.7N 133.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 082100UTC AT 27.0N 136.1E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 072100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 072100UTC 24.7N 133.7E GOOD MOVE N 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 65NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 082100UTC 27.0N 136.1E 90NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 091800UTC 28.5N 137.8E 160NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 101800UTC 30.4N 140.3E 290NM 70% MOVE NE 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPH RPLL 071800 *** TYPHOON WWRNING 21 AT 1800 07 JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT) (0504) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DAT AT (24.4N 133.7E) MOVING NORTHW AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 081800 TWO SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD