** WTPQ20 BABJ 070600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 070600 UTC 00HR 23.5N 134.1E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR N 10KM/H P+24HR 25.8N 134.6E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 28.1N 136.1E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 31.0N 140.0E 988HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 070600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 070600UTC 23.5N 134.1E GOOD MOVE N 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 260NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 080600UTC 25.7N 134.1E 90NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 090600UTC 27.2N 135.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 100600UTC 28.0N 136.5E 250NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 070600 *** WARNING 070600. WARNING VALID 080600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 950 HPA AT 23.5N 134.1E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 25.7N 134.1E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 27.2N 135.4E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 28.0N 136.5E WITH 250 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 070650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 07-06-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER EAST CENTRAL, SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL , ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 20 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ30 RJTD 070600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 0504 NESAT (0504) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 070600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 070900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 033 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z3 --- NEAR 23.4N9 134.2E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.4N9 134.2E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 24.6N2 134.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 26.0N8 134.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 27.3N2 135.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 29.0N1 137.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 33.2N8 143.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 39.8N0 152.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 23.7N2 134.2E0. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM WEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 38 FEET. REFER TO WWPN30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3, 072100Z0, 080300Z1 AND 080900Z7.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 070900 *** WARNING 070900. WARNING VALID 080900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 950 HPA AT 23.7N 133.9E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 26.0N 134.2E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 070900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 070900UTC 23.7N 133.9E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 260NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 080900UTC 26.0N 134.2E 90NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 090600UTC 27.2N 135.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 100600UTC 28.0N 136.5E 250NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 070600 *** TYPHOON WARNING 19 AT 0600 JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT) {0504} WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONR THREE FOUR POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 080600 TWO FIVE POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT TWO EAST AND AT 090600 TWO SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPMM 070600 *** TYPHOON WQARNING 19 AT 0600 07JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT ) (0504) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METER SPER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE METER SPER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 080600 TWO FIVE POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT TWO EAST AND AT 090600 TWO SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT SIX EAT ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA