** WTSR20 WSSS 061800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 070000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 070000 UTC 00HR 22.9N 134.2E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR NNE 10KM/H P+24HR 25.0N 134.6E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 27.5N 135.8E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 30.6N 139.0E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 070000 *** WARNING 070000. WARNING VALID 080000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 950 HPA AT 22.9N 134.2E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 25.3N 134.2E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 27.1N 135.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 27.9N 136.3E WITH 250 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 070000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 070000UTC 22.9N 134.2E GOOD MOVE N 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 250NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 080000UTC 25.3N 134.2E 90NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 090000UTC 27.1N 135.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 100000UTC 27.9N 136.3E 250NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 070000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 0504 NESAT (0504) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 070000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 070000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME TY 0504 NESAT ANALYSIS POSITION 070000UTC 22.9N 134.2E MOVEMENT N 6KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 080000UTC 24.8N 134.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 76KT 48HR POSITION 090000UTC 26.9N 134.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT 72HR POSITION 100000UTC 28.5N 136.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 070300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 032 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z7 --- NEAR 22.9N3 134.3E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N3 134.3E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 24.0N6 134.4E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 25.3N0 134.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 26.8N6 135.5E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 28.4N4 137.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 32.4N9 141.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 38.6N7 150.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 23.2N7 134.3E1. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 40 FEET. REFER TO WWPN30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6, 071500Z3, 072100Z0 AND 080300Z1. ** WTPH20 RPMM 070000 *** TYPHOON WARNING 18 AT 0000 07 JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT) (0504) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT TWO EAST MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR TWO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SEOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 080000 TWO FOUR POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT FIVE EAST AND AT 090000 TWO FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 070000 *** TYPHOON WARNING 18 AT 0000 07 JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT) (0504) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SAT. AND SFC DATA AT 22.7N 134.2E MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 02MPS RADIUS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROMCENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 42MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 100KMS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 080000 24.4N 134.5E ND AT 090000 25.9N 134.7E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON ARE A ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER MANILA REPORTS TO TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 070300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 070300UTC 23.2N 134.2E GOOD MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 250NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 080300UTC 25.5N 134.0E 90NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 090000UTC 27.1N 135.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 100000UTC 27.9N 136.3E 250NM 70% MOVE NE SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 070300 *** WARNING 070300. WARNING VALID 080300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 950 HPA AT 23.2N 134.2E SOUTHEAST OF MINAMIDAITOJIMA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 25.5N 134.0E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 070000 *** TYPHOON WARNING 18 AT 0000 07 JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT) (0504) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT TWO EAST MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR TWO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SEOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 080000 TWO FOUR POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT FIVE EAST AND AT 090000 TWO FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT80 EGRR 070508 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.06.2005 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 070508