** WTIN20 DEMS 060615 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 06-06-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER EAST CENTRAL, WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL , ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 22 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 060600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 060600 UTC 00HR 21.1N 133.3E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NE 15KM/H P+24HR 24.2N 135.4E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 27.2N 137.4E 960HPA 38M/S P+72HR 30.4N 140.2E 975HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 060600 *** WARNING 060600. WARNING VALID 070600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 945 HPA AT 21.3N 133.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 23.3N 133.7E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 25.6N 134.1E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 27.7N 135.7E WITH 250 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 060600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 060600UTC 21.3N 133.4E GOOD MOVE NE 10KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 220NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 070600UTC 23.3N 133.7E 100NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 080600UTC 25.6N 134.1E 160NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 72HF 090600UTC 27.7N 135.7E 250NM 70% MOVE NNE 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 060600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 0504 NESAT (0504) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 060600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 060900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z2 --- NEAR 21.2N5 133.4E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N5 133.4E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 22.6N0 134.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 24.1N7 134.7E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 25.6N3 135.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 27.3N2 136.0E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 31.0N4 139.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 35.0N8 146.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 39.5N7 156.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 21.5N8 133.6E3. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 44 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2, 062100Z9, 070300Z0 AND 070900Z6.// ** WTPH RPLL 060600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 15 AT 0600 06 JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT) (0504) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 21.2N 133.3E FCST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 42MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 100KMS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 070600 24.5N 134.2E AND AT 071800 26.1N 134.8E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTJP31 RJTD 060900 *** WARNING 060900. WARNING VALID 070900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 945 HPA AT 21.6N 133.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 23.7N 133.9E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 060900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 060900UTC 21.6N 133.6E GOOD MOVE NE 10KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 220NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 070900UTC 23.7N 133.9E 100NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 080600UTC 25.6N 134.1E 160NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 69HF 090600UTC 27.7N 135.7E 250NM 70% MOVE NNE 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 060300 *** TYPHOON WARNING 15 AT 0600 06 JUNE TYPHOON (NESATY) (0504) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR TWO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 070600 TWO FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT TWO EAST AND AT 071800 TWO SIX POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPH20 RPMM 060600 RRA *** TYPHOON WARNING 15 AT 0600 06 JUNE TYPHOON (NESATY) (0504) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR TWO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 070600 TWO FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT TWO EAST AND AT 071800 TWO SIX POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA =