** WTPQ20 BABJ 051800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 051800 UTC 00HR 19.7N 131.9E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NNE 15KM/H P+24HR 23.0N 134.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 25.8N 136.0E 965HPA 35M/S P+72HR 29.6N 141.0E 975HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 051800 *** WARNING 051800. WARNING VALID 061800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 955 HPA AT 19.6N 132.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHEAST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 21.9N 133.9E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 24.6N 135.1E WITH 160 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 27.3N 137.1E WITH 240 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 051800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 051800UTC 19.6N 132.0E GOOD MOVE NE 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 061800UTC 21.9N 133.9E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 071800UTC 24.6N 135.1E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 72HF 081800UTC 27.3N 137.1E 240NM 70% MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 052100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z4 --- NEAR 19.8N8 132.0E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N8 132.0E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 21.3N6 133.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 22.7N1 134.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 24.0N6 134.7E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 25.6N3 135.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 29.1N2 137.4E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 33.4N0 142.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z0 --- 38.4N5 152.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.2N4 132.3E9. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 35 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z9, 060900Z5, 061500Z2 AND 062100Z9.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 052100 *** WARNING 052100. WARNING VALID 062100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 955 HPA AT 20.1N 132.2E WEST OF PARECE VERA MOVING NORTHEAST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 062100UTC AT 22.3N 134.1E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 052100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 052100UTC 20.1N 132.2E GOOD MOVE NE 09KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 062100UTC 22.3N 134.1E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 071800UTC 24.6N 135.1E 160NM 70% MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 69HF 081800UTC 27.3N 137.1E 240NM 70% MOVE NNE 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPH RPLL 051800 *** TYPHOON WARNING 13 AT 1800 05JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT) (0504) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DAT AT ONE NINE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THEE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETES RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 061800 TWO THREE POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT ONE EAST AND AT 071000 TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE SIX POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD