** WTPQ20 BABJ 050600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 050600 UTC 00HR 18.0N 130.7E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NNE 15KM/H P+24HR 21.3N 132.8E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 25.3N 134.5E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 29.3N 136.3E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 050600 *** WARNING 050600. WARNING VALID 060600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 940 HPA AT 18.1N 130.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 20.8N 132.9E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 23.1N 134.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 25.9N 135.3E WITH 240 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 050600UTC 18.1N 130.9E GOOD MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 060600UTC 20.8N 132.9E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 070600UTC 23.1N 134.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 080600UTC 25.9N 135.3E 240NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 050600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 0504 NESAT (0504) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 050600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NOR TH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 050900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z1 --- NEAR 18.1N0 130.6E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N0 130.6E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 19.7N7 131.4E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 21.2N5 132.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 22.8N2 133.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 24.6N2 133.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 28.0N0 134.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 32.2N7 139.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 39.3N5 148.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.5N4 130.8E2. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 45 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z1, 052100Z8, 060300Z9 AND 060900Z5.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 050600 *** TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 0600 05 JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT) (0504)WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE EIGHT POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 060600 TWO ONE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT TWO EAST AND AT 070600 TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 050900UTC 18.4N 131.1E GOOD MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 060900UTC 21.0N 133.2E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 070600UTC 23.1N 134.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 080600UTC 25.9N 135.3E 240NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 050900 *** WARNING 050900. WARNING VALID 060900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 940 HPA AT 18.4N 131.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060900UTC AT 21.0N 133.2E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH RPLL 050600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 0600 05 JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT) (0504) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 18.2N 130.7E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 45MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 100KMS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 060600 21.5N 132.2E AND AT 070600 24.7N 134.1E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPH RPLL 050600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 0600 05 JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT) (0504) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 18.2N 130.7E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 45MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 100KMS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 060600 21.5N 132.2E AND AT 070600 24.7N 134.1E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD=