** WTSR20 WSSS 041800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 050000 UTC 00HR 17.2N 130.5E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR NNE 15KM/H P+24HR 21.0N 132.2E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 25.2N 134.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 29.0N 136.0E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 050000 *** WARNING 050000. WARNING VALID 060000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 940 HPA AT 17.3N 130.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 20.3N 132.1E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 23.5N 134.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 26.2N 134.4E WITH 240 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 050000UTC 17.3N 130.4E GOOD MOVE N 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 060000UTC 20.3N 132.1E 90NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 070000UTC 23.5N 134.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 080000UTC 26.2N 134.4E 240NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 050000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 0504 NESAT (0504) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 050000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NOR TH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 050000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TY 0504 NESAT ANALYSIS POSITION 050000UTC 17.3N 130.4E MOVEMENT NNW 8KT PRES/VMAX 940HPA 84KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 060000UTC 20.7N 131.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 940HPA 84KT 48HR POSITION 070000UTC 23.9N 133.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 78KT 72HR POSITION 080000UTC 26.9N 134.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 74KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 050300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z5 --- NEAR 17.3N1 130.4E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N1 130.4E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 19.0N0 130.7E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 20.5N7 131.9E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 22.4N8 133.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 24.3N9 133.6E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 28.0N0 134.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 32.0N5 139.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 26 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 39.4N6 148.1E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 17.7N5 130.5E9. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 45 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT IN- FORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4, 051500Z1, 052100Z8 AND 060300Z9.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 050000 *** TYPHOON WARNING 10 AT 0000 05 JUNE TYPHOON(NESAT)(0504) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TOMOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR SEVEN METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 060000 TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT FIVE EAST AND AT 070000 TWO FOUR POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 050000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 10 AT 0000 05 JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT) (0504) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 17.3N 130.4E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 47MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 100KMS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 060000 20.8N 131.5E AND AT 070000 24.3N 133.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTJP31 RJTD 050300 *** WARNING 050300. WARNING VALID 060300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 940 HPA AT 17.8N 130.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060300UTC AT 20.7N 132.6E WITH 100 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 050300UTC 17.8N 130.7E GOOD MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 060300UTC 20.7N 132.6E 100NM 70% MOVE NNE 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 070000UTC 23.5N 134.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 080000UTC 26.2N 134.4E 240NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 050538 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.06.2005 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 050538 ** WTIN20 DEMS 050545 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 05-06-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL ,PARTS OF SOUTH ARABIAN SEA AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 21 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.)