** WTSR20 WSSS 040600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 041200 *** WARNING 041200. WARNING VALID 051200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 930 HPA AT 15.7N 130.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 20.0N 131.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 24.6N 134.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 27.7N 133.3E WITH 240 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 041200UTC 15.7N 130.6E GOOD MOVE NW 06KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 051200UTC 20.0N 131.8E 80NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 061200UTC 24.6N 134.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE 12KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 72HF 071200UTC 27.7N 133.3E 240NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 041200 UTC 00HR 15.7N 130.5E 925HPA 55M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 18.9N 130.7E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 23.0N 132.8E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 27.6N 136.2E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 041500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z7 --- NEAR 15.9N5 130.6E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N5 130.6E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z5 --- 17.6N4 130.4E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 19.4N4 130.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 21.4N7 131.9E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 23.9N4 133.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 29.0N1 137.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 21 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 35.0N8 143.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.3N0 130.5E9. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 040924Z5 SSM/I AND 040944Z1 TRMM IMAGES REVEAL WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER TY 04W CAUSING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 45 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDI- TIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7, 050300Z8, 050900Z4 AND 051500Z1.// ** WTPH RPLL 041200 *** TYPHOON WARNING 08 AT 12 04 JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT) (0504) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 15.8N 130.6E MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 03MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 9433MPS WITHIN 100KMS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 051200 17.9N 129.6E AT 061200 20.8N 131.3E AND AT 071200 24.0N 134.2E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPH20 RPMM 041200 *** TYPHOON WARNING 08 AT 1200 04 JUNE TYPHOON (NEAT) (0504) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT SIX EAST MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR SEVEN METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 051200 ONE SEVEN POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT SIX EAST AT 061200 TWO ZERO PONT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT THREE EAST AND AT 071200 TWO FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 041500 *** WARNING 041500. WARNING VALID 051500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 930 HPA AT 16.1N 130.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 20.7N 132.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 041500UTC 16.1N 130.4E GOOD MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 051500UTC 20.7N 132.0E 80NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 061200UTC 24.6N 134.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE 12KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 69HF 071200UTC 27.7N 133.3E 240NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 041654 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.06.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 8.7N 110.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.06.2005 8.7N 110.3W WEAK 00UTC 05.06.2005 9.0N 109.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.06.2005 9.9N 108.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.06.2005 11.0N 109.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.06.2005 11.7N 109.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.06.2005 12.0N 109.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.06.2005 11.8N 108.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.06.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041654