** WTIN20 DEMS 040617 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 04-06-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL ,PARTS OF SOUTH ARABIAN SEA AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 20 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 040600 UTC 00HR 15.0N 131.0E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 17.9N 130.6E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 21.4N 132.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 24.5N 134.2E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 040600 *** WARNING 040600. WARNING VALID 050600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 930 HPA AT 15.2N 131.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 18.9N 131.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 23.0N 133.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 27.0N 133.4E WITH 240 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 040600UTC 15.2N 131.0E GOOD MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 050600UTC 18.9N 131.4E 80NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 48HF 060600UTC 23.0N 133.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE 11KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 72HF 070600UTC 27.0N 133.4E 240NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 040600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 0504 NESAT (0504) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 040600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL RECURVE WITHIN 24 HOURS FROM 040600 UTC. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NOR TH-NORTHEAST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 040900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z0 --- NEAR 14.9N4 131.0E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N4 131.0E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 15.9N5 130.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 17.4N2 130.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 19.9N9 131.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 22.7N1 132.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 29.8N9 138.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 25 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 37.3N3 146.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.2N8 130.9E3. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 0406000Z IS 45 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z0, 042100Z7, 050300Z8 AND 050900Z4.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 040600 *** TYPHOON WARNING 07 AT 0600 04 JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT) (0504) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT ZERO EAST MOVING NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR TWO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 050600 ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT FOUR EAST AT 060600 TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT TWO EAST AND AT 070600 TWO THREE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 040930 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON NESAT ADVISORY NUMBER 21 800 PM GUAM LST SAT JUN 4 2005 ...NESAT STILL A VERY STRONG TYPHOON... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NESAT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 130.9 DEGREES EAST. TYPHOON NESAT IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS A CATEGORY 4...VERY STRONG...TYPHOON ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON TROPICAL CYCLONE SCALE. NESAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...15.2 DEGREES NORTH AND 130.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 145 MPH. TYPHOON NESAT IS NO LONGER A THREAT TO THE ISLANDS OF MICRONESIA...THUS THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON TYPHOON NESAT. $$ ZIOBRO/GUARD ** WTPQ31 PGUM 040943 CCA *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON NESAT ADVISORY NUMBER 21...CORRECTION 800 PM GUAM LST SAT JUN 4 2005 CORRECTION TO ADD LAST SENTENCE ...NESAT STILL A VERY STRONG TYPHOON... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NESAT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 130.9 DEGREES EAST. TYPHOON NESAT IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS A CATEGORY 4...VERY STRONG...TYPHOON ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON TROPICAL CYCLONE SCALE. NESAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...15.2 DEGREES NORTH AND 130.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 145 MPH. TYPHOON NESAT IS NO LONGER A THREAT TO THE ISLANDS OF MICRONESIA...THUS THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON TYPHOON NESAT. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON TYPHOON NESAT PLEASE REFER TO THE JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTPN31 PGTW. $$ ZIOBRO/GUARD ** WTJP31 RJTD 040900 *** WARNING 040900. WARNING VALID 050900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 930 HPA AT 15.5N 130.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 19.6N 131.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 040900UTC 15.5N 130.8E GOOD MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 050900UTC 19.6N 131.7E 80NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 45HF 060600UTC 23.0N 133.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNE 11KT PRES 920HPA MXWD 100KT 69HF 070600UTC 27.0N 133.4E 240NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTPH RPLL 040600 *** TYPHOON WARNING 07 AT 0600 04 JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT) (0504) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATE- LLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 15.1N 131.0E MOVING NORTHWEST AT 03 MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350 KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 42 MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 100KMS 13 MPS WITHIN 350 KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 050600Z 18.0N 130.4E AT 060600Z 20.7N 131.2E AND AT 070600Z 23.4N 132.5E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA=