** WTPQ20 BABJ 031800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 031800 UTC 00HR 14.1N 131.7E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 17.3N 130.8E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 21.0N 131.6E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 25.0N 135.0E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 031800 *** WARNING 031800. WARNING VALID 041800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 940 HPA AT 14.1N 131.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 16.8N 130.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 19.6N 130.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 22.2N 131.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 031800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 031800UTC 14.1N 131.8E GOOD MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 041800UTC 16.8N 130.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 051800UTC 19.6N 130.8E 150NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 061800UTC 22.2N 131.5E 220NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 032100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z2 --- NEAR 14.2N7 131.9E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N7 131.9E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 15.2N8 130.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 16.6N3 130.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 18.5N4 130.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 21.7N0 132.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 27.5N4 136.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 20 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 33.7N3 142.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 41.1N6 151.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.5N0 131.6E1. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 40 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z7, 040900Z3, 041500Z0 AND 042100Z7.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 031800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 05 AT 1800 03 JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT)(0504) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR TWO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZER0 ZERO KILOMETER RAIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 041800 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH 0NE TWO NINE POINT SEVEN EAST 051800 ONE NINE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 061800 TWO TWO POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEAHTER MANILA= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 032120 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON NESAT ADVISORY NUMBER 19 800 AM GUAM LST SAT JUN 4 2005 ...TYPHOON NESAT INTENSIFYING AND SHOWING ITS EYE... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...TYPHOON NESAT IS GENERATING HAZARDOUS SURF OF 7 TO 9 FEET ON WEST FACING EXPOSURES OF YAP AND PALAU. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NESAT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 131.6 DEGREES EAST. TYPHOON NESAT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 140 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TYPHOON NESAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...14.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 131.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 140 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ AHN ** WTJP31 RJTD 032100 *** WARNING 032100. WARNING VALID 042100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 940 HPA AT 14.3N 131.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 16.9N 130.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 032100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 032100UTC 14.3N 131.5E GOOD MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 80NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 042100UTC 16.9N 130.2E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 45HF 051800UTC 19.6N 130.8E 150NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 061800UTC 22.2N 131.5E 220NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPH RPLL 031800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 05 AT 1800 03 JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT) (0504) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 14.1N 131.8E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 42MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 100KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 041800 16.8N 129.7E AT 051800 19.8N 129.8E AND AT 061800 22.6N 130.9E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD=