** WTPQ20 RJTD 030600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 030600UTC 13.0N 133.7E GOOD MOVE NW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 040600UTC 15.7N 131.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 050600UTC 19.0N 131.2E 150NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 060600UTC 21.6N 131.7E 220NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 030600 *** WARNING 030600. WARNING VALID 040600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 950 HPA AT 13.0N 133.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 15.7N 131.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 19.0N 131.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 21.6N 131.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 030600 UTC 00HR 12.9N 133.7E 945HPA 50M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 15.7N 131.2E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 19.3N 130.9E 945HPA 50M/S P+72HR 22.8N 133.7E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 030600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 0504 NESAT (0504) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 030600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED . TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 030900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z9 --- NEAR 12.9N2 133.7E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N2 133.7E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 14.3N8 132.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 15.8N4 131.1E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 17.3N1 130.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 19.0N0 131.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 23.9N4 134.4E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 29.3N4 138.6E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z4 --- 35.1N9 144.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 030900Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.3N7 133.3E0. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 860 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL AND THE EYE HAS REFORMED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z9 IS 37 FEET. REFER TO WWPN30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z9, 032100Z6, 040300Z7 AND 040900Z3.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 030600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 03 AT 0600 03 JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT) (0504) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN SEVEN FIVE KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 040600 ONE FOUR POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT NINE EAST AT 050600 ONE SIX POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SIX EAST AND AT 060600 ONE NINE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 030900UTC 13.4N 133.2E GOOD MOVE NW 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 040900UTC 16.2N 131.0E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 45HF 050600UTC 19.0N 131.2E 150NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 060600UTC 21.6N 131.7E 220NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 030900 *** WARNING 030900. WARNING VALID 040900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 950 HPA AT 13.4N 133.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040900UTC AT 16.2N 131.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 031013 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON NESAT ADVISORY NUMBER 17 800 PM GUAM LST FRI JUN 3 2005 ...TYPHOON NESAT CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM YAP AND PALAU... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...TYPHOON NESAT IS GENERATING HAZARDOUS SURF OF 7 TO 9 FEET ON WEST FACING EXPOSURES OF YAP...ULITHI AND FAIS. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NESAT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 133.3 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 420 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP 485 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI...AND 545 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS. TYPHOON NESAT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TYPHOON NESAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR ITS CURRENT INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...13.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 133.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM SATURDAY GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ ZIOBRO