** WTSR20 WSSS 021800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 030000 *** WARNING 030000. WARNING VALID 040000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 950 HPA AT 12.3N 134.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 14.8N 131.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 17.8N 130.6E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 20.1N 130.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 030000UTC 12.3N 134.4E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 040000UTC 14.8N 131.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 050000UTC 17.8N 130.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 060000UTC 20.1N 130.7E 220NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 030000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 030000 UTC 00HR 12.3N 134.3E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 15.0N 131.4E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 18.3N 130.6E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 21.4N 132.2E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 030000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TY 0504 NESAT ANALYSIS POSITION 030000UTC 12.4N 134.3E MOVEMENT W 11KT PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 040000UTC 14.8N 131.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 86KT 48HR POSITION 050000UTC 17.5N 130.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 86KT 72HR POSITION 060000UTC 20.0N 130.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 030000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TY 0504 NESAT (0504) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 030000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 030000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TY 0504 NESAT (0504) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 030000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 030300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z3 --- NEAR 12.2N5 134.4E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N5 134.4E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z6 --- 13.2N6 132.8E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z4 --- 14.5N0 131.4E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z7 --- 16.0N7 130.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z5 --- 18.1N0 130.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 23.2N7 134.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 28.6N6 137.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 34.4N1 142.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 12.5N8 134.0E8. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 920 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z3 IS 35 FEET. REFER TO WWPN30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z2, 031500Z9, 032100Z6 AND 040300Z7.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 030320 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON NESAT ADVISORY NUMBER 16 200 PM GUAM LST FRI JUN 3 2005 ...TYPHOON NESAT CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM YAP AND PALAU... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...TYPHOON NESAT IS GENERATING HAZARDOUS SURF OF 7 TO 9 FEET ON NORTH...NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES OF YAP...ULITHI AND FAIS. THE HAZARDOUS SURF IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUBSIDING TONIGHT AS NESAT MOVES FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST OF YAP. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NESAT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 134.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 345 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP 420 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI...AND 480 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS. TYPHOON NESAT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TYPHOON NESAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR ITS CURRENT INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...12.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 134.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ MCELROY ** WTPH20 RPMM 030000 *** TYPHOON WARNING 02 AT 0000 03 JUNE TYPHOON NESAT 0504 WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE TWO POINT THREE NORTH FOUR POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TOMOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FRO CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN SEVEN FIVE KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 040000 ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT ONE EAST AT 050000 ONE EIGHT POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT ONE EAST AND AT 060000 TWO TWO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 030300 *** WARNING 030300. WARNING VALID 040300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 950 HPA AT 12.6N 134.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 15.4N 131.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 030300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 030300UTC 12.6N 134.1E GOOD MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 040300UTC 15.4N 131.1E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 10KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 050000UTC 17.8N 130.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 060000UTC 20.1N 130.7E 220NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPH RPLL 030000 *** TYPHOON WARNING 02 AT 0000 03 JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT) (0504) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATE- LLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 12.3N 134.4E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTH- WEST AT 05MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 40MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 75KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 040000 14.7N 131.1E AT 050000 18.6N 130.1E AND AT 060000 22.0N 132.4E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTIN20 DEMS 030601 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 03-06-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONNECTIVE CLOUDS OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA ANDAMAN SEA AND(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 18 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ** WTNT80 EGRR 030550 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.06.2005 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 030550