** WTPQ20 BABJ 021800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 021800 UTC 00HR 12.1N 135.4E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 14.4N 132.0E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 17.6N 130.5E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 20.0N 132.0E 930HPA 55M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 021800 UTC 00HR 12.1N 135.4E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 14.4N 132.0E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 17.6N 130.5E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 20.0N 132.0E 930HPA 55M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 021800 *** WARNING 021800. WARNING VALID 031800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 950 HPA AT 12.1N 135.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 14.3N 131.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 17.1N 130.4E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 19.5N 130.6E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 021800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 021800UTC 12.1N 135.4E GOOD MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 031800UTC 14.3N 131.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 041800UTC 17.1N 130.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 051800UTC 19.5N 130.6E 220NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 022100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z1 --- NEAR 12.0N3 135.4E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N3 135.4E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 13.1N5 133.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 14.6N1 131.8E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 16.2N9 130.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z3 --- 17.8N6 130.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z4 --- 22.0N4 133.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z5 --- 28.0N0 137.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z6 --- 33.1N7 140.8E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 022100Z5 POSITION NEAR 12.3N6 134.9E7. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 950 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 37 FEET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z1 IS 37 FEET. REFER TO WWPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z6, 030900Z2, 031500Z9 AND 032100Z6.// ** WTPH RPLL 021800Z *** TYPHOON WARNING 01 AT 1800 02 JUNE TYPHOON (NESAT) (0504) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATEL LITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 12.1N 135.4E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTH- WEST AT 05MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 40MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 10MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS 13PMS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 031800 13.9N 131.9E AT 041800 16.2N 129.8E AND AT 051800 18.8N 129.7E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 022135 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON NESAT ADVISORY NUMBER 15 800 AM GUAM LST FRI JUN 3 2005 ...TYPHOON NESAT SPEEDING UP AND WEAKENING A BIT... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...TYPHOON NESAT IS GENERATING HAZARDOUS SURF OF 7 TO 9 FEET ON NORTH...NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES OF YAP...ULITHI AND FAIS. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NESAT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 134.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 290 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP 360 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI...AND 420 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS. TYPHOON NESAT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 125 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH TYPHOON NESAT HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE...IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...12.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 134.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ AHN ** WTJP31 RJTD 022100 *** WARNING 022100. WARNING VALID 032100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 950 HPA AT 12.3N 134.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 032100UTC AT 14.6N 131.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 022100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 022100UTC 12.3N 134.7E GOOD MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 032100UTC 14.6N 131.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 041800UTC 17.1N 130.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 051800UTC 19.5N 130.6E 220NM 70% MOVE N 06KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT =