** WTSR20 WSSS 020600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 021200 *** WARNING 021200. WARNING VALID 031200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 950 HPA AT 11.7N 136.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 13.4N 132.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 15.8N 130.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 18.1N 130.1E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 021200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 021200UTC 11.7N 136.3E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 031200UTC 13.4N 132.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 041200UTC 15.8N 130.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 051200UTC 18.1N 130.1E 220NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 021200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 021200 UTC 00HR 11.7N 136.3E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 14.0N 132.4E 930HPA 55M/S P+48HR 16.8N 130.9E 920HPA 60M/S P+72HR 19.2N 130.8E 930HPA 55M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 021500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z5 --- NEAR 11.7N9 136.5E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N9 136.5E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 12.7N0 134.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z6 --- 13.9N3 132.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z4 --- 15.4N0 131.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z7 --- 16.9N6 130.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 20.1N3 132.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 25.5N2 134.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 31.3N7 138.4E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.0N3 135.9E8. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1010 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 35 FEET. REFER TO WPN31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5, 030300Z6, 030900Z2 AND 031500Z9.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 021500 *** WARNING 021500. WARNING VALID 031500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 950 HPA AT 11.9N 135.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031500UTC AT 13.6N 131.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 021500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 021500UTC 11.9N 135.8E GOOD MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 031500UTC 13.6N 131.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 041200UTC 15.8N 130.3E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 051200UTC 18.1N 130.1E 220NM 70% MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 021548 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON NESAT ADVISORY NUMBER 14 2 AM GUAM LST FRI JUN 3 2005 ...TYPHOON NESAT SLOWING DOWN A BIT AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...THE TYPHOON NESAT IS GENERATING HAZARDOUS SURF OF 7 TO 9 FEET ON NORTH...NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES OF YAP...ULITHI AND FAIS. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NESAT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 230 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP 290 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 350 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS 605 MILES WEST OF GUAM...AND 695 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN. TYPHOON NESAT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS A CATEGORY 4...VERY STRONG TYPHOON...ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON TROPICAL CYCLONE SCALE. TYPHOON NESAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...12.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 135.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ AHN ** WTPQ31 PGUM 021550 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON NESAT ADVISORY NUMBER 14 2 AM GUAM LST FRI JUN 3 2005 ...TYPHOON NESAT SLOWING DOWN A BIT AND MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...TYPHOON NESAT IS GENERATING HAZARDOUS SURF OF 7 TO 9 FEET ON NORTH...NORTHEAST AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES OF YAP...ULITHI AND FAIS. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NESAT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 230 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP 290 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 350 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS 605 MILES WEST OF GUAM...AND 695 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN. TYPHOON NESAT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS A CATEGORY 4...VERY STRONG TYPHOON...ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON TROPICAL CYCLONE SCALE. TYPHOON NESAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...12.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 135.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ AHN ** WTNT80 EGRR 021758 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.06.2005 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 021758