** WTIN20 DEMS 020610 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 02-06-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONNECTIVE CLOUDS OVER SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL, ANDAMAN SEA,NORTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 19 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ** WTJP21 RJTD 020600 *** WARNING 020600. WARNING VALID 030600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 950 HPA AT 11.5N 137.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 13.1N 133.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 15.3N 130.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 17.8N 129.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 020600UTC 11.5N 137.4E GOOD MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 030600UTC 13.1N 133.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 48HF 040600UTC 15.3N 130.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 050600UTC 17.8N 129.4E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 020600 UTC 00HR 11.3N 137.3E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 13.0N 132.7E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 15.6N 130.3E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 18.5N 130.3E 935HPA 55M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 020600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TY 0504 NESAT (0504) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 020600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUAL LY TO NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 020900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z8 --- NEAR 11.4N6 137.4E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N6 137.4E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 12.4N7 135.4E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 13.6N0 133.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z2 --- 14.9N4 131.9E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 16.3N0 131.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 19.1N1 130.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 14 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 23.9N4 134.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z3 --- 29.7N8 137.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 020900Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.7N9 136.9E9. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z8 IS 35 FEET. REFER TO WWPN30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z8, 022100Z5, 030300Z6 AND 030900Z2.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 020900UTC 11.6N 136.8E GOOD MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 030900UTC 13.5N 132.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 45HF 040600UTC 15.3N 130.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 050600UTC 17.8N 129.4E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 020900 *** WARNING 020900. WARNING VALID 030900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 950 HPA AT 11.6N 136.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 13.5N 132.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 021102 RRA *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON NESAT ADVISORY NUMBER 13 8 PM GUAM LST THU JUN 2 2005 ...TYPHOON NESAT SUSTAINED WINDS REACH 130 MPH... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. WARNINGS WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR YAP OR ULITHI SINCE THE DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TYPHOON NESAT WILL STAY NORTH OF THESE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE TYPHOON WILL LIKELY GENERATE HIGH SURF FOR THE WESTERN ISLANDS OF YAP STATE. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NESAT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 220 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 170 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP 280 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS 545 MILES WEST OF GUAM AND 640 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN TYPHOON NESAT IS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH. TYPHOON NESAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS A CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON TROPICAL CYCLONE SCALE. TYPHOON NESAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST AND 105 MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. REPEATING THE 8 PM POSITION...11.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 136.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM FRIDAY GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ ZIOBRO