** WTSR20 WSSS 011800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 020000 *** WARNING 020000. WARNING VALID 030000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 955 HPA AT 11.2N 138.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 12.5N 133.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 15.1N 131.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 17.5N 130.0E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 020000UTC 11.2N 138.5E GOOD MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 030000UTC 12.5N 133.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 040000UTC 15.1N 131.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 72HF 050000UTC 17.5N 130.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TY 0504 NESAT (0504) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 020000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERAT E. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUAL LY TO NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 020000 UTC 00HR 11.1N 138.5E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 70KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 12.6N 133.6E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 15.4N 130.7E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 18.1N 130.2E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 020000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TY 0504 NESAT ANALYSIS POSITION 020000UTC 11.2N 138.5E MOVEMENT WNW 11KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 030000UTC 12.7N 134.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 86KT 48HR POSITION 040000UTC 15.2N 131.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT 72HR POSITION 050000UTC 17.8N 129.8E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 935HPA 93KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 020300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z2 --- NEAR 11.2N4 138.5E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N4 138.5E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 11.8N0 136.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 12.8N1 133.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z6 --- 13.9N3 132.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z4 --- 14.8N3 131.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z5 --- 17.6N4 130.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z6 --- 22.1N5 132.7E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z7 --- 27.0N9 136.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.4N6 137.9E0. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTH-NORTH- EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ADDITIONALLY, TY 04W HAS REDEVELOPED AN EYE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z2 IS 33 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1, 021500Z8, 022100Z5 AND 030300Z6.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 011800 UTC 00HR 10.9N 139.6E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 12.5N 134.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 15.1N 131.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 18.1N 130.0E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 020329 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON NESAT ADVISORY NUMBER 12 2 PM GUAM LST THU JUN 2 2005 ...TYPHOON NESAT SUSTAINED WINDS REACH 130 MPH... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. IT REMAINS UNLIKELY THAT WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR YAP OR ULITHI SINCE THE DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TYPHOON NESAT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THESE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE TYPHOON WILL LIKELY GENERATE HIGH SURF FOR THE WESTERN ISLANDS OF YAP STATE. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NESAT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 155 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 130 MILES NORTH OF YAP 210 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS 485 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM AND 585 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN TYPHOON NESAT IS MOVING WEST AT 12 MPH. TYPHOON NESAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS A CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON TROPICAL CYCLONE SCALE. TYPHOON NESAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES TO THE NORTH AND 80 MILES TO THE SOUTH. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...11.4 DEGREES NORTH AND 137.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ GUARD ** WTJP31 RJTD 020300 *** WARNING 020300. WARNING VALID 030300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0504 NESAT (0504) 950 HPA AT 11.3N 137.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 12.7N 133.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 020300UTC 11.3N 137.9E GOOD MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 030300UTC 12.7N 133.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 040000UTC 15.1N 131.2E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT 69HF 050000UTC 17.5N 130.0E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 095KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 020555 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.06.2005 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 020555