** WTJP21 RJTD 011200 *** WARNING 011200. WARNING VALID 021200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0504 NESAT (0504) 975 HPA AT 10.6N 140.5E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 12.1N 135.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 14.1N 131.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 16.9N 130.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 011200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 011200UTC 10.6N 140.5E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 20NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 021200UTC 12.1N 135.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 031200UTC 14.1N 131.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 041200UTC 16.9N 130.2E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 011200 *** WARNING 011200. WARNING VALID 021200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0504 NESAT (0504) 975 HPA AT 10.6N 140.5E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 12.1N 135.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 14.1N 131.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 16.9N 130.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 011200 UTC 00HR 10.7N 140.4E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 12.0N 135.7E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 14.2N 131.8E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 17.2N 130.2E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 011500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 010 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 04W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z4 --- NEAR 10.8N9 140.0E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N9 140.0E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 11.2N4 137.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 12.0N3 134.7E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 13.2N6 132.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z6 --- 14.8N3 131.5E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z7 --- 17.3N1 130.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z8 --- 20.0N2 131.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z9 --- 23.5N0 132.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 10.9N0 139.3E6. TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 19 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADD- ITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4, 020300Z5, 020900Z1 AND 021500Z8.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 011528 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON NESAT (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10 200 AM GUAM LST THU JUN 2 2005 ...TYPHOON NESAT MOVING WESTWARD... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR FAIS... ULITHI AND YAP SINCE THE STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TYPHOON NESAT WILL STAY NORTH OF THESE ISLANDS. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NESAT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 139.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 65 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ULITHI 83 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF FAIS 152 MILES NORTHEAST OF YAP AND 375 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM TYPHOON NESAT IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH. TYPHOON NESAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE EXTEND OUT TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND 80 MILES NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. TYPHOON NESAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...10.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 139.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTJP31 RJTD 011500 *** WARNING 011500. WARNING VALID 021500. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0504 NESAT (0504) 975 HPA AT 10.6N 140.2E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 12.2N 135.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 011500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 011500UTC 10.6N 140.2E GOOD MOVE W 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 20NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 021500UTC 12.2N 135.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 031200UTC 14.1N 131.9E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 041200UTC 16.9N 130.2E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTSR20 WSSS 010600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT80 EGRR 011745 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.06.2005 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 011745