** WTIN20 DEMS 010610 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 01-06-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONNECTIVE CLOUDS OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 18 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ** WTJP21 RJTD 010600 *** WARNING 010600. WARNING VALID 020600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0504 NESAT (0504) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 985 HPA AT 10.7N 141.6E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 12.0N 136.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 14.1N 132.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 16.5N 130.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 940 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0504 NESAT (0504) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 010600UTC 10.7N 141.6E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 020600UTC 12.0N 136.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 030600UTC 14.1N 132.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 040600UTC 16.5N 130.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR STS 0504 NESAT (0504) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 010600 UTC IS GOOD. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERA TE. STS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS NESAT 0504 (0504) INITIAL TIME 010600 UTC 00HR 10.7N 141.5E 988HPA 25M/S 30KTS 290KM P12HR W 25KM/H P+24HR 12.0N 136.6E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 14.2N 132.4E 955HPA 45M/S P+72HR 17.2N 130.8E 945HPA 50M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 010900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151ZMAY05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z7 --- NEAR 10.8N9 141.6E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N9 141.6E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z0 --- 11.3N5 139.2E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z8 --- 12.0N3 137.1E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z1 --- 13.0N4 135.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z9 --- 14.2N7 133.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z0 --- 16.7N4 131.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z1 --- 19.1N1 130.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z2 --- 22.2N6 132.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 010900Z0 POSITION NEAR 10.9N0 141.0E6. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z7 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z7, 012100Z4, 020300Z5 AND 020900Z1.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 010900 *** WARNING 010900. WARNING VALID 020900. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0504 NESAT (0504) 985 HPA AT 10.7N 141.0E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 12.3N 136.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0504 NESAT (0504) ANALYSIS PSTN 010900UTC 10.7N 141.0E GOOD MOVE W 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 020900UTC 12.3N 136.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 030600UTC 14.1N 132.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 040600UTC 16.5N 130.5E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 010948 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NESAT(04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9 800 PM GUAM LST WED JUN 1 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM NESAT MOVING WESTWARD... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR FAIS AND ULITHI SINCE THE STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM NESAT WILL STAY NORTH OF THESE ISLANDS. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NESAT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 290 MILES NORTH OF FARAULEP 85 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FAIS 120 MILES NORTHEAST OF ULITHI 220 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP AND 310 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM TROPICAL STORM NESAT IS MOVING WEST AT 16 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 MPH. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE EXTEND OUT TO 60 MILES SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND 80 MILES NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM NESAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...10.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 141.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM THURSDAY GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ ZIOBRO